金十数据7月8日讯，汇丰环球研究发表报告指，中国飞鹤(06186.HK)就中期业绩发出盈警，预计净利润 按年降36至46%。预期公司2025年的收入按年将持平，之前预测为上升9%，2025年净利润预测下调 31%。同时将予分派的股息总额预测下调34%至20亿元人民币，维持"持有"评级，目标价由6.4港元下调 至4.9元。 汇丰研究降中国飞鹤目标价至4.9元 维持"持有"评级 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Golden Crown 50° Extraordinary Guardian Public Welfare Action" aims to enhance maternal and infant health in China through donations and training, contributing to the establishment of a fertility-friendly society [1][4][11]. Group 1: Donation and Impact - The initiative donated over 1 million yuan worth of infant and maternal milk products to families in Zhenning County, Guizhou, benefiting local maternal and infant families [1][6]. - Since its launch in 2024, the program has donated over 6 million yuan in nutritional supplies, benefiting nearly 5,000 families across 21 counties in 7 provinces [4][11]. Group 2: Training and Support - The program included a training session for over 200 rural doctors on maternal and infant care, aimed at improving local healthcare services [6][8]. - The collaboration with the China Population Welfare Foundation and local health authorities emphasizes the importance of addressing real parenting needs [6][11]. Group 3: Brand Commitment and Initiatives - The company focuses on high-quality nutritional solutions and scientific feeding concepts to support maternal and infant health [9][11]. - The "16 billion yuan fertility subsidy plan" provides nutritional support and free products to eligible families, enhancing the overall parenting experience [11].

Core Insights - JD.com has achieved significant milestones during the 2025 618 shopping festival, with daily orders for JD Delivery surpassing 25 million and over 150,000 quality dining establishments joining the platform [1][4] - The overall order volume for JD's retail business, including online and offline operations, exceeded 2.2 billion during the event, with user numbers growing over 100% year-on-year [1] - Guangdong province emerged as the top consumer market during the event, ranking first in purchasing power and tenth in order growth rate nationally [5] JD Delivery Performance - JD Delivery's daily order volume has reached over 25 million, with more than 150,000 quality dining establishments onboard and over 120,000 full-time delivery personnel [4] - The delivery service has created significant synergies with existing retail operations, leading to over 400,000 new PLUS member registrations in April alone, with PLUS members showing a twofold higher repurchase rate compared to non-members [4] Sales Performance by Category - Multiple categories saw explosive sales growth during the 618 event, with mobile communications, home appliances, and cooking ingredients increasing by 88%, 161%, and 138% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Notable sales included a 50% increase in mobile sales within the 4,000 to 6,000 price range, a 151% rise in AI laptop sales, and a 260% increase in sales of 100-inch televisions [2] Technological Integration - AI technology played a crucial role during the 618 event, with a 130% increase in the usage of large models compared to the previous year, and over 1.4 million smart agents and digital employees deployed [3] - JD's live streaming orders grew by over 210%, with sales from live commerce increasing by 285% [3] Consumer Behavior Insights - In Guangdong, the purchasing power was highest, with Shenzhen being the strongest city and Shantou showing the highest growth rate [5] - The top three product categories for the "post-00s" demographic included fruit cuts, wired earphones, and tablets, while "post-80s" consumers focused on baby products [6]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes JD.com's strategic focus on supply chain innovation, which has driven significant growth across various business segments during the 618 shopping festival, showcasing a structural recovery in the consumer market [2][20]. Group 1: Consumer Trends and Supply Chain Resilience - Four major consumer trends emerged during the 618 event: the popularity of "technology + traditional culture" products, the activation of lower-tier markets, the explosion of instant retail, and significant growth in lifestyle services, all closely linked to JD.com's supply chain strategy [3][5]. - The search volume for AI-related products increased by over 120% year-on-year, while products featuring intangible cultural heritage saw a 270% increase in searches, indicating a strong consumer interest in innovative and culturally rich products [3][5]. - Orders from rural areas surged by over 130% year-on-year, with user numbers increasing by 140%, highlighting the effectiveness of JD.com's supply chain in penetrating lower-tier markets [5][10]. Group 2: Instant Retail and Lifestyle Services - Instant retail emerged as a major highlight, with JD.com’s food delivery service achieving a daily order volume of 25 million within three months of launch, supported by over 150,000 quality dining establishments [7][11]. - The growth in lifestyle services was notable, with JD.com’s self-operated home service transactions exceeding 100 million, and orders for home appliance cleaning and laundry increasing by 211% and over 10 times, respectively [9][10]. - The integration of products and services through supply chain consolidation has allowed JD.com to offer both low-priced goods and high-quality service experiences, marking a shift towards a comprehensive lifestyle service platform [10][20]. Group 3: Strategic Reflections and Long-term Vision - JD.com's founder, Liu Qiangdong, reflected on the past five years as a period of stagnation, emphasizing a return to a strategy focused on "experience, cost, and efficiency," with all business operations centered around the supply chain [16][20]. - The company plans to assist 1,000 Chinese brands in expanding internationally over the next five years, leveraging its supply chain capabilities to enhance global competitiveness [19][20]. - JD.com’s commitment to employee welfare, including full-time riders receiving competitive salaries and benefits, is seen as a strategy to ensure service quality and operational efficiency [13][17].

Core Insights - The 2025 JD618 event emphasizes "good quality at low prices," enhancing user experience through significant discounts, quality assurance, premium services, engaging activities, and extensive coverage, driving growth for Chinese brands and revitalizing lower-tier markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Consumer Trends - AI-related products and domestic brands gained significant attention, with over 70% of the top 100 brands being Chinese, and searches for "AI elements" and "intangible cultural heritage elements" increasing by over 120% and 270% respectively [1][2] - Orders from rural areas surged by over 130%, with user numbers increasing by over 140%, highlighting the consumption power in lower-tier markets [1][2] - Instant retail saw explosive growth, with JD's daily order volume exceeding 25 million and over 1.5 million quality dining establishments joining the platform [2][3] Group 2: Subsidy and Sales Growth - JD618 featured unprecedented subsidy efforts, allowing consumers to receive over 6,180 yuan in daily subsidies, leading to significant sales increases across various categories, including mobile communications (88%), home appliances (161%), and food products (138%) [3][4] - The agricultural sector benefited from a 100 billion yuan subsidy project, resulting in a sales increase for 26,000 agricultural products [3][4] Group 3: New Product Launches - The event showcased a variety of new and popular products, with sales of Huawei's Harmony folding screen laptop selling out on the first day and Switch2 delivering to users nationwide on launch day [4][5] - Sales of new smartwatches increased by 301%, and over 3,000 home appliance brands saw sales growth exceeding 100% [4][5] Group 4: Logistics and Service Innovations - JD's logistics saw a 300% increase in "delivery and installation" orders, supported by over 100,000 professional delivery and installation engineers [5][6] - The logistics system improved delivery efficiency, achieving 211-hour delivery and next-day delivery coverage in more cities [6][7] Group 5: AI and Technology Integration - The application of AI technology significantly enhanced the JD618 experience, with a 130% increase in the use of large models and over 100,000 merchants utilizing AI services [7][8] - Innovative 3D content products were introduced, enhancing customer interaction and engagement during the shopping experience [7][8]

抱怨环境没有用，品牌经营者们不妨静下心来思考，如何从品牌企业自身出发来努力摆脱卷的状态。我们在这里提供一些思考角度。 一、"卷"的本质：供过于求&供给同质化 商业范畴的"卷"本质上就是供给侧的过度竞争。那是什么因素造成了这种现象？我们认为原因主要有两点： 这两年，"卷"依然是消费品领域的主旋律，而且"卷"的程度似乎还在不断加深——相比前几年还在卷增长，这两年许多行业已经进展到卷生存的地步；包 括卷起来的范围也不像前几年，还主要集中在美妆护肤、食品饮料等主流大品类赛道，这两年连一些原本不起眼的细分小品类赛道，都开始渐渐挤满了 人。 这种卷还体现在品牌在与平台博弈之中的弱势，正如我们在《品牌为何卷？拆解品牌VS平台的博弈》一文中所分析的，作为供给端的品牌在需求增长缓 慢且交易、曝光都依赖于少数平台时，品牌就不得不遵照这些平台的游戏规则行事。 一方面是数量层面的供过于求，这很好理解，僧多粥少必然引发供给侧的竞争。供需关系永远是经济运行最底层的因素，也是相对宏观的因素，很难被个 体逆转。比如家居家电、燃油车、服装等许多品类已经进入需求滞涨的情况，供给侧的激烈竞争就难以避免。 另一方面是供给侧自身的同质化，这一点往往在 ...

家人们好，这里是帮主郑重的收评时间。今天这行情啊，用"冰火两重天"来形容一点不为过。三大指数集体收跌，但个股却是涨多跌少，这说明市场内部的 结构性分化特别明显。作为20年的老财经记者，我始终相信，中长线投资要做的不是追热点，而是看透表象背后的真逻辑。 今日行情让我想起2018年贸易战时期——指数萎靡但结构机会喷涌。记住三条铁律：不在情绪高潮时追涨，不在逻辑破灭时死扛，不在产业黎明前撤退。 最后给大家划个重点：当前市场进入"打地鼠"模式，板块轮动快，但中长线的核心逻辑始终没变。消费升级、农业现代化、科技赋能，这些才是真正值得长 期关注的方向。就像我常说的，中长线投资不是百米冲刺，而是马拉松，选对赛道比跑得快更重要。 我是帮主郑重，专注中长线投资20年，明天同一时间，咱们接着聊市场里的真逻辑。 接下来重点聊聊板块。首先是逆势爆发的草甘膦和农化板块。这两天草甘膦概念涨得很凶，中旗股份20cm涨停，广信股份、中农联合也跟着封板。这背后 其实有两层逻辑：一是全球农业政策调整，各国都在推动农业现代化，高效农药的需求持续增加；二是国内企业技术升级，像广信股份采用了环保生产工 艺，成本降下来了，竞争力自然就上去了。不过这里得 ...

作 者丨贺泓源 实习生谭伊亭 高飞的收入在行业算高吗？客观来说，作为蒙牛总裁，这份收入比较中等。在2 0 2 3年，高飞 的老领导，蒙牛前总裁卢敏放的薪酬收入就达到1 3 5 7 . 2万元。同年，卢敏放以股份为基础的 收入达到6 3 8 5 . 3万元。 在2 0 2 4年，卢敏放当了蒙牛一个季度总裁，和1 0个月的执行董事。他的薪酬收入达到1 4 6 . 1万 元，以股份为基础的收入达到1 7 0 0万元。高飞与卢敏放的收入相比，堪称直线跳水。 各自商誉减值超3 0亿元 伊利、蒙牛"血战"婴配粉市场 伊利、蒙牛正在挥别高增长模式。 一个例子是， 他们主动接受了大量商誉减值，这是过去高增长时代留下的痕迹或者说负担。 财报显示，2 0 2 4年，伊利营收11 5 7 . 8 0亿元，同比下滑8 . 2 4%；归母净利润8 4 . 5 3亿元，同比 下滑1 8 . 9 4%。伊利净利润下滑原因便是，澳优乳业商誉减值带来的3 0 . 3 7亿元拖累。 此种影响在规模相对低的蒙牛身上更为明显。 2 0 2 4年，蒙牛营收8 8 6 . 7 5亿元，同比下滑1 0 . 1%；受贝拉米商誉减值及联营公司亏损影响， 实现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dialogue at the FBIF 2025 Food and Beverage Innovation Forum highlighted China Feihe's innovative research and product expansion strategy, focusing on a full age range from infants to the elderly, in response to market demands and demographic changes [1][2]. Group 1: Product Innovation and Development - China Feihe is currently the leading company in infant formula sales both domestically and globally, and is expanding its product offerings beyond infants to include children, youth, adults, and the elderly [1]. - The company is developing higher quality products that are closer to breast milk for infants, while also addressing the nutritional needs of the aging population in China [2]. Group 2: Research Initiatives - In 2022, China Feihe led a key research initiative under the Ministry of Science and Technology's "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming to establish the largest maternal and infant cohort study in China, with over 3,000 mother-infant pairs and more than 6,000 breast milk samples to analyze regional variations and their impact on child development [3]. Group 3: Raw Material Production - China Feihe has made significant advancements in domestic production of essential raw materials for infant formula, such as lactoferrin and whey protein, to reduce reliance on imports, especially in light of current trade tensions [4]. Group 4: Global Market Strategy - The company has established a production facility in Canada to cater to the North American market, designing products based on local breast milk characteristics, and is also exploring opportunities in Southeast Asia through local collaborations [5]. - Future plans include expanding infant products internationally while aligning research efforts with local scientists to better understand regional nutritional needs [6].

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Ausnutria by Yili Group has led to improvements in management and performance, but the actual performance has fallen short of initial expectations, prompting a downward revision of future growth forecasts for Ausnutria [1] Company Summary - Since the acquisition of Ausnutria, Yili Group has provided continuous support, resulting in year-on-year improvements in both management and performance [1] - For 2024, Yili Group has adjusted its growth rate expectations for Ausnutria due to underperformance and a decline in the overall market size for infant formula [1] - Yili Group has conducted impairment testing and made corresponding adjustments based on the revised growth expectations for Ausnutria [1] Industry Summary - The liquid milk industry is experiencing a more rational competitive landscape compared to previous price decline cycles, with larger companies focusing on profit improvement while smaller companies engage in price wars [1] - The decline in milk prices has been narrowing since the first quarter, and the supply-demand balance is expected to improve further this year due to ongoing adjustments in the dairy herd [1] - Yili Group has observed a recovery in the prices of raw milk and bulk powder recently, which is expected to contribute to an improved competitive environment in the industry [1] - Although liquid milk revenue has not yet returned to positive growth in the first quarter, there have been signs of improvement in the second quarter [1] - The company plans to maintain a low inventory and stable pricing strategy while strictly controlling shipment schedules to ensure channel health [1]