Core Viewpoint - Micron's FY26 Q1 financial report shows impressive results, with revenue of $13.64 billion, significantly exceeding the guidance range of $12.2-12.8 billion and market expectations by nearly $700 million. Adjusted EPS reached $4.78, far surpassing the market expectation of $3.95 [1][3][6] Group 1: Performance Breakdown - Revenue and Profit: Micron's FY26 Q1 performance exceeded expectations across the board, with revenue of $13.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21%, marking the highest growth rate in nearly five years [3][6] - Adjusted EPS of $4.78 significantly exceeded the market expectation of $3.95, showing a substantial jump from the previous quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin soared to 56.8%, up 17.3 percentage points year-on-year and 11.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, far exceeding the guidance of 50.5%-52.5% [6][7] - Operating cash flow reached $8.41 billion, well above the expected $5.94 billion, while adjusted free cash flow hit a record $3.91 billion, with a free cash flow margin close to 30% [6] Group 2: Product Structure - DRAM remains the main revenue driver, generating $10.8 billion, accounting for 79% of total revenue, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 20%. Average Selling Price (ASP) surged approximately 20%, reflecting the scarcity of supply [7] - NAND business generated $2.7 billion, representing 20% of total revenue, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 22%. ASP also saw mid-single-digit growth, indicating a "volume and price increase" trend [7] - HBM, crucial for AI servers, has seen its production capacity sold out for 2026, with expectations for HBM4 to enter mass production in CY26Q2, further enhancing profitability. The HBM market is projected to grow from $35 billion in 2025 to $100 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of about 40% [7][8] Group 3: AI Storage Demand - The demand for storage driven by AI is not a short-term trend but signals a new five-year cycle. The current recovery is fundamentally different from previous cycles, focusing on enterprise-level AI capital expenditures rather than consumer demand [9][10] - AI data centers are driving a "voracious demand" for storage, leading to price increases across all product categories, with HBM prices soaring by 500% and DDR4 prices rising over 50% [10] Group 4: Supply Constraints - The storage industry faces significant supply constraints, with expected DRAM and NAND shipment growth limited to about 20% year-on-year, falling short of demand growth [12] - The production adjustment cycle for storage wafer fabs exceeds five months, making it difficult to respond quickly to market demand changes, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [12] Group 5: Future Outlook - Micron's optimistic FY26 Q2 guidance suggests adjusted revenue of $18.3-19.1 billion, significantly above the market expectation of $14.38 billion, indicating strong resilience in AI storage demand [15] - The ability to release capacity and achieve technological advancements will be critical for growth, with the successful mass production of DRAM's 1-gamma node and NAND's 232-layer node directly impacting supply and profitability [16][17] - The balance of supply and demand, along with price trends, will be crucial in determining the sustainability of the recovery, with potential risks from geopolitical factors affecting the semiconductor supply chain [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4][20]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a gradual improvement in performance, with Q2 2025 showing a revenue increase of 38.20% year-on-year and a 53.50% quarter-on-quarter growth, despite a net loss [1][2]. - The global storage market is recovering, with a projected market size of $165.52 billion in 2024, driven by data center infrastructure, 5G, and cloud computing growth [9]. - The company is actively developing AI edge technology and products, with successful mass production of its self-developed main control chip, enhancing its competitive edge in various AI applications [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,591 million yuan in 2023 to 13,397 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23.9% [1][10]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 466 million yuan in 2025, increasing to 944 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround from previous losses [1][10]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 9.07%, with a notable recovery in Q2, where the gross margin increased by 11.7 percentage points [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on vertical integration in the semiconductor storage industry, combining storage solutions with advanced packaging to create a differentiated competitive advantage [9]. - The company has a comprehensive product line covering embedded storage, solid-state drives, memory modules, and storage cards, positioning itself well within the NAND Flash and DRAM markets [10]. - The company is also expanding its customer base among leading domestic and international clients, aiming for significant sales growth across its product lines [10].

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve an operating income of approximately 90,500 million yuan, a slight increase of 1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is estimated to be around 4,000 million yuan, showing a decline compared to the previous year [1] - The decline in net profit is attributed to three main factors: industry cycle transition, increased strategic investments, and cautious impairment provisions [1] Group 2 - The global storage industry is anticipated to enter a strong recovery cycle in the first half of 2024, with prices of mainstream large-capacity storage devices continuing to rise [1] - The company has adjusted its supply chain strategy flexibly, resulting in a higher inventory level, although the inventory turnover rate has decreased [1] - The company has recognized an asset impairment loss of approximately 5,800 million yuan, which has increased year-on-year [1] Group 3 - The company is committed to driving value growth through technological innovation, increasing R&D investment significantly during the reporting period [2] - The total R&D, management, and sales expenses have increased by approximately 6,000 million yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - The operating quality of the company has shown positive changes, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement in net profit for the second quarter after excluding non-recurring factors [2] Group 4 - The company anticipates continuous improvement in operating performance in the second half of the year, driven by the traditional peak season for consumer electronics and the gradual optimization of the storage industry landscape [2] - New products are expected to be mass-produced and delivered, contributing to the anticipated improvement in performance [2]