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三棵树(603737):2025年秋季策略会速递:新业态加速推进,经营拐点显现
HTSC· 2025-08-28 04:59
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing a turning point in operations, supported by the resilience of the retail market and the rapid replication of new business models such as "Immediate Move-In" and "Beautiful Countryside" [1][2] - The overall price competition in the paint industry has temporarily subsided, leading to a steady growth in retail and an improvement in gross margins [2] - The demand for renovation in the paint sector has exceeded 50%, with the "Immediate Move-In" model aligning well with consumer needs in the existing housing market [3] - The company is actively participating in rural revitalization, maintaining the top market share in the imitation stone paint segment [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1.574 billion, 1.795 billion, 1.733 billion, and 460 million for home decoration wall paint, engineering wall paint, base materials, and waterproof membranes respectively, with year-on-year changes of +8.4%, -2.3%, +10.4%, and -28.6% [2] - The overall gross margin improved to 32.35%, a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percentage points, with specific margins for home decoration wall paint, engineering wall paint, base materials, and waterproof membranes at 49.4%, 35.4%, 20.6%, and 13.8% respectively [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 780 million, 980 million, and 1.21 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54.0% [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company has over 2,300 "Immediate Move-In" community stores, reaching 420,000 households, with more than 15,000 professional service personnel [3] - The imitation stone paint market in China is projected to reach 22 billion by 2024, with the company holding a market share of 7.6% [4] - The company's revenue from the "Beautiful Countryside" business, primarily based on imitation stone paint, reached 940 million, growing over 50% year-on-year [4] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 53.19 RMB, with a closing price of 47.71 RMB as of August 27 [11] - The report assigns a 40x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026, reflecting the strong retail attributes of the paint sector and the potential for domestic brand replacement [5]