业绩简评 2025 年 7 月 4 日，公司披露 2025 年半年度业绩预增公告，上半年 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 3.8-4.6 亿元，同比增加 80.94%-119.04%，实现扣非后归母净利润 2.3-3.1 亿元，同比增 加 190.04%-290.92%；上半年归母净利润预告中枢在 4.2 亿元， 推测单 Q2 归母净利润中枢值 3.15 亿元，上半年及单 Q2 的利润总 额为历史新高表现，净利率显著修复。 经营分析 成长逻辑不变：地产景气向下阶段，公司零售业务持续逆势增长， 家装墙面漆 2022-2024 年的收入增速分别为 18.2%、2.6%、12.8%， 25Q1 收入增速维持 8.0%。马上住、仿石漆、艺术漆新招客户均增 长显著，C 端多模块形成高利润、高增长态势，快速复制。各增量 细分市场竞争格局友好，行业需求存量阶段、公司去地产化和新消 费的成长逻辑不变。 毛利率继续修复：根据业绩预告，结合市场环境及需求变化，公司 积极调整和优化产品结构，毛利率同比保持增长。从最近两个财报 季度来看，24Q4 毛利率 32.5%，同比+0.44pct，环比+3.82pct，开 始企稳回升，25Q ...

长江大宗 2025年7月金股推荐 长江证券研究所周期组 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 2025-06-29 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080009 SAC执业证书编号：S0490517080003 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080022 SAC执业证书编号：S0490516080003 SFC执业证书编号：BUT964 SFC执业证书编号：BQT627 SFC执业证书编号：BUT917 SFC执业证书编号：BUT918 分析师 魏凯 分析师 张韦华 分析师 张弛 分析师 肖勇 分析师及联系人 分析师 王鹤涛 分析师 范超 分析师 韩轶超 分析师 马太 SAC执业证书编号：S0490512070002 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513080001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490512020001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490516100002 SFC执业证书编号：BQT626 SFC执业证书编号：BQK473 SFC执业证书编号：BQK468 SFC执业证书编号：BUT911 %% %% %% %% researc ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 Annual General Meeting of SanKe Tree Co., Ltd. is organized to ensure the rights of shareholders and to discuss various proposals including financial performance and future financing plans [1][2][3] Meeting Procedures - Shareholders must arrive 15 minutes before the meeting to complete registration and present necessary documents [2] - Shareholders wishing to speak must register 15 minutes prior to the meeting, with a limit of ten speakers based on shareholding [2][3] - The meeting will utilize a named voting method for decision-making, with results announced by the chairperson [3][4] Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 1,210,508.40 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.97% from the previous year [22] - Net profit for the year was 33,193.91 million yuan, an increase of 91.27% compared to the previous year [22][20] - Total assets decreased by 1.03% to 1,399,286.98 million yuan, while total liabilities decreased by 3.61% to 1,102,160.99 million yuan [14][17] Key Financial Metrics - Operating profit increased by 34.30% to 27,558.31 million yuan, while total profit rose by 37.94% to 26,223.41 million yuan [22] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities decreased by 28.37% to 100,865.86 million yuan [23] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to 168,643,993.92 yuan, representing 50.81% of the net profit [24] Future Financing Plans - The company intends to apply for a total credit limit of up to 15 billion yuan from financial institutions for 2025, with a guarantee limit of 9.5 billion yuan [29][30] - The proposed guarantees include 5 billion yuan for entities with a debt-to-asset ratio above 70% and 4.5 billion yuan for those below [30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company has shown a significant improvement in retail competitiveness and continues to optimize its product structure. The retail business is rapidly growing, with high profit margins and growth rates across multiple modules. The company is also expanding its engineering services into niche markets, further enhancing its competitive advantage [5][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.97%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 91.27% to 0.332 billion yuan. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 2.130 billion yuan, up 3.12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.105 billion yuan, reflecting a 123.33% increase [5][6] - The company's revenue from different product segments in 2024 included: - Home decoration wall paint: 2.967 billion yuan, up 12.8% - Engineering wall paint: 4.084 billion yuan, down 12.7% - Base materials: 3.269 billion yuan, up 1.25% - Waterproof membranes: 1.319 billion yuan, up 4.9% [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 13.7 billion yuan and 15.5 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.5% and 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 0.752 billion yuan in 2025 and 0.949 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 126.4% and 26.3% [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company has shown resilience with a revenue of 12.105 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 2.97% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly by 91.27% to 0.332 billion yuan [5] - The retail business is rapidly growing, with a notable improvement in product structure and profitability, particularly in the home decoration wall paint segment [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.7 billion yuan and 15.5 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.752 billion yuan and 0.949 billion yuan, indicating substantial growth [7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 29.6%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to price declines in engineering wall paints [6] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 140 billion yuan in 2024 to 177 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a steady increase in operational capacity [12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.63 yuan in 2024 to 2.25 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the inbound economy may boost China's GDP by approximately 0.2 percentage points in 2025, driven by policy changes aimed at optimizing the outbound tax refund system and increasing inbound consumption [5][6][7] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various industries and companies, indicating a mixed performance across sectors, with some companies showing strong growth while others face challenges [3][4] Industry Overview - **Chemical Industry**: Huafeng Chemical (002064.SZ) reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with revenue of 6.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.15%, and a net profit of 504 million yuan, down 26.21% year-on-year, but a significant increase of 145.60% quarter-on-quarter [28][29] - **Coal Mining**: Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) faced a decline in both volume and price, leading to a projected annual revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.1% year-on-year [32][33] - **Textiles and Apparel**: Mousse Co., Ltd. (001323.SZ) reported a Q1 revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with expectations for recovery following government subsidies [54][55] - **Home Appliances**: Dechang Co., Ltd. (605555.SH) achieved a Q1 revenue of 1 billion yuan, up 21.33% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Southeast Asia [40][41] Company-Specific Insights - **Huafeng Chemical**: The company is consolidating its position in the polyurethane industry through vertical mergers and acquisitions, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 2.474 billion, 3.110 billion, and 3.822 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [28][30] - **Lu'an Environmental Energy**: The company is expected to see a rebound in coal prices, with a focus on capacity growth and price elasticity, maintaining a "buy" rating despite recent performance challenges [32][34] - **Mousse Co., Ltd.**: The company is enhancing its multi-channel and multi-category market layout, with a projected net profit of 799 million, 872 million, and 956 million yuan for 2025-2027 [54][55] - **Dechang Co., Ltd.**: The company is expanding its overseas production capacity and expects significant growth in its automotive motor segment, maintaining a "buy" rating [40][41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in cash flow and profitability, with a notable increase in net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025. The retail transformation is yielding positive results, and the company is expected to benefit from a more stable real estate market and improved channel management [4][5] - Revenue for 2024 was 12,105 million yuan, a decrease of 2.97% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 91.27% to 332 million yuan. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 788 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 137.2% [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 12,105 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 3.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 332 million yuan, up 91.3% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 29.60%, a decrease of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 31.05%, an increase of 2.67 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company expects to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.49 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.0 times based on the current stock price [4][7] Product Performance - The company reported revenue from various product segments in 2024: home decoration wall paint (29.67 billion yuan, +12.75% YoY), engineering wall paint (40.84 billion yuan, -12.65% YoY), and waterproof membranes (13.19 billion yuan, +4.95% YoY). The average selling price for home decoration wall paint and waterproof membranes showed significant improvement [5][6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 788 million yuan in 2025, 899 million yuan in 2026, and 1,064 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][7] - The anticipated improvement in the real estate sector and ongoing optimization of distribution channels are expected to support the company's long-term growth potential [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results, showing a slight decline in revenue but significant growth in net profit, indicating resilience in its business model despite market challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.105 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.97%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 332 million, reflecting a substantial increase of 91.27% [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.959 billion, a decrease of 3.45%, with net profit showing a significant reduction in losses [1]. - The Q1 2025 report indicated revenue of 2.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.12%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 105 million, up 123.33% [1]. Business Segments - The home decoration wall paint segment generated revenue of 2.967 billion in 2024, up 12.75%, with a gross margin of 46.94%, indicating stable profitability despite increased competition [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end product lines under the "Health+" strategy, including artistic paint and other premium offerings, while also enhancing channel penetration in rural areas [1][2]. - The B-end business, particularly in non-housing applications, saw revenue of 4.084 billion in 2024, down 13%, but the company managed to increase its market share by targeting new sectors like state-owned enterprises and urban construction [2]. Growth Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 13.728 billion, 16.111 billion, and 18.859 billion, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 13.41%, 17.36%, and 17.05% [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 794 million, 959 million, and 1.179 billion, with significant growth rates of 139.06%, 20.87%, and 22.89% [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing consolidation in the construction coatings industry, maintaining a "recommended" rating for investment [3].

Summary of the Conference Call for SanKeTree Company Overview - **Company**: SanKeTree - **Industry**: Coatings and Paints Key Financial Performance - **Q1 2025 Performance**: - Net profit reached 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 374 million yuan [2][3] - Gross margin improved to 31.05%, a 2.7 percentage point increase year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow turned positive for the first time in Q1, reaching 110 million yuan, an increase of 374 million yuan year-on-year [3][17] - Revenue for Q1 was 2.13 billion yuan, a 3.12% year-on-year increase, marking a record high for Q1 since the company went public [3] Business Segments Performance - **Retail Business**: - Retail business accounted for 49% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 11% [2][4] - If delayed order confirmations are considered, retail growth could reach 20% [4] - **Engineering Business**: - Engineering business grew by 0.13% year-on-year, with significant growth in small B business and municipal public construction nearing 10% [2][5] Product Performance - **Home Decoration Wall Paint**: - Grew by 8% year-on-year, but impacted by a 41% decline in waterproof coatings; excluding this, growth would be 11% [2][6] - **Engineering Wall Paint**: - Increased by 9%, accounting for 29% of total business [6] - **Waterproof Membranes**: - Revenue decreased by 21% due to price competition and industry downturn [2][6] Strategic Outlook - **2025 Full Year Forecast**: - Expected double-digit revenue growth, gross margin improvement of 2-3 percentage points, and a reduction in expense ratio by 2 percentage points [2][7] - Debt ratio targeted to decrease to around 73% [2][7] - **Pricing Strategy**: - Plans to increase prices by approximately 3% due to competitors halting price wars [2][8] - Retail prices are not expected to decline further, with positive impacts anticipated from competitors' price increases [10] Market Position and Growth Plans - **Market Share Goals**: - Aiming to increase retail market share to 15% within five years, up from 7% [4][18] - Focus on growth rather than dividends in the near term, with potential for significant dividends starting in 2027 [17][18] - **Industrial Coatings**: - Industrial coatings revenue reached approximately 27 million yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of over 90% [19] - Focus on automotive coatings and industrial anti-corrosion paints, with plans to enter the supply chain of major automotive brands [19] Industry Trends - **Coatings Industry Outlook**: - The coatings sector is expected to grow steadily, particularly in the renovation market for existing properties [22] - SanKeTree aims to surpass competitors and establish itself as a leading domestic brand in the coatings industry [22] Additional Insights - **Operational Efficiency**: - Plans to optimize workforce by reducing over 800 positions, targeting a total of around 8,000 employees by year-end [4][16] - **Cash Flow Improvement**: - Enhanced cash flow attributed to increased retail proportion and strong position in the supply chain [17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, business segment growth, strategic outlook, and industry trends relevant to SanKeTree.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The competitive advantages in the paint industry are gradually becoming evident, and the company is expected to emerge as a leader in the existing housing market [8] - The company has shown significant improvement in net profit due to effective cost control and a reduction in impairment provisions [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from domestic demand policies and has a unique valuation potential within the building materials sector [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12,105 million RMB, a decrease of 2.97% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 332 million RMB, an increase of 91.27% [8] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 was 21.30 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.12%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.05 billion RMB, up 123.33% [8] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 29.6%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense market competition [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 802 million RMB, 1,001 million RMB, and 1,302 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.52, 1.90, and 2.47 RMB [8] - The company is expected to experience a significant increase in net profit growth rates of 141.60% in 2025 and 30.07% in 2027 [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading national paint enterprise, leveraging its unique competitive advantages and efficient channel strategy to navigate market volatility [8] - The company is anticipated to be among the first in the industry to experience a recovery in performance, benefiting from the cyclical nature of the market [8]