Core Viewpoint - The futures market indicates a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, up from 45% before the employment report [3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - A rate cut is expected to lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, enhancing global economic stimulus expectations and improving oil demand forecasts, which may drive prices up [4]. Group 2: Inventory Data - Seasonal inventory data shows significant deviations compared to the same period last year, with notable increases in certain commodities: - Urea inventory is up 341.46% [9] - Manganese silicon inventory is up 57.69% [9] - Peanut inventory is up 121.91% [9] - Oil factory inventory is up 101.32% [10] - Gold inventory is up 118.66% [11] - Soda ash inventory is up 67.08% [12] - Lead social inventory is up 142.36% [13] - Silver inventory is up 62.31% [13] - Conversely, some inventories are reported to be low: - 20 rubber inventory is down 71.91% [14] - Oil factory soybean meal inventory is down 55.29% [15] - Aluminum exchange inventory is down 57.15% [15].