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小非农爆冷,大非农火热,市场应该相信哪一个?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-04 06:54
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant divergence in U.S. employment data for June, with government job growth contrasting sharply with private sector job losses, leading to confusion among investors about which data to trust [1][2][3] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [1] - The ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 private sector jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with a forecast of 98,000 jobs added [1][2] Group 2 - The increase in government jobs, particularly in state and local education sectors, accounted for 73,000 new jobs, nearly half of the total non-farm job growth for the month [4] - Private sector job growth was weak, with only 74,000 jobs added, and the goods-producing sector saw a net gain of just 6,000 jobs, with construction adding 15,000 jobs and manufacturing losing 7,000 jobs [4] - The healthcare and social assistance sector contributed significantly to private sector job growth, adding 59,000 jobs [4] Group 3 - Analysts from Citigroup noted that the apparent strength in employment data may be overstated, as both household and establishment surveys indicate signs of hiring slowdown [3][5] - The unexpected drop in the unemployment rate is attributed to a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.4% to 62.3%, reflecting a decrease in labor supply [2] - The report indicated a reduction of 603,000 jobs in household surveys over the past two months, which typically would lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, but a larger decrease in the labor force size resulted in a lower unemployment rate [2]