1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the support of the capital market, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. However, the strong stock market drove up risk appetite, suppressing the bond market. Uncertainties in the Fed's further interest - rate cuts and global trade also added uncertainties to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillated between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.80% with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, up 0.10% month - on - month (+0.20%) [9] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.33, down 0.33 (-0.34%); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1136, up 0.004 (+0.06%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.47, down 0.02 (-1.48%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.02 (-1.38%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58 with no change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09 with no change [9] 3.2 Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - Multiple charts were used to show the closing price trends, price change rates, precipitation of funds, position ratios, net position ratios, long - short position ratios, spreads between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts [11][15][22] 3.3 Money Market Capital Situation - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6% year - on - year, and the gap between them narrowed continuously, indicating enhanced capital activity and improved corporate business vitality. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan, with a high proportion of government bond financing, reflecting weak medium - and long - term corporate financing demand. Deposit increased by 8.6% year - on - year, and both credit and deposit growth rates declined slightly, indicating weakened bank asset expansion momentum and the economy in a weak recovery stage. On September 22, 2025, the central bank conducted a 240.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main term repurchase rates (1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M) were 1.427%, 1.466%, 1.675%, and 1.550% respectively, and the repurchase rates had declined recently [2] - Multiple charts were used to show the Shibor interest rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trends, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance [26][32] 3.4 Spread Overview - Multiple charts were used to show the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures, and the term spreads of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [30][34][35] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts were used to show the term spreads of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [39][40][48] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts were used to show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [50][54] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts were used to show the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [57][59] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts were used to show the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [64][69] 3.9 Strategies - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates, the prices of treasury bond futures oscillated. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4]