Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The capital market in August does not have a basis for tightening. Although the bond market has become desensitized to capital and fundamental information recently, it will eventually return to these two concerns. Currently, the Sino - US tariff negotiations have not released more positive information, and the latest economic data does not support a shift in monetary policy [2][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Judgment of August Capital Market - In July, after the capital interest rate dropped to nearly 1.3% at the beginning of the month, there were two significant increases. On July 25, the central bank immediately made a large - scale net investment of 601.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase to support the capital market, indicating that the central bank's attitude of supporting the capital market has not changed. The overnight capital interest rate has dropped to 1.36%, and the balance of 7 - day reverse repurchase is significantly higher than the seasonal level, similar to the situation in the second quarter [2][9] 2. Open Market - In August, the maturity of MLF is 300 billion yuan, and the maturity of outright reverse repurchase is 900 billion yuan, totaling 1.2 trillion yuan, less than the 1.5 trillion yuan in July. Since May, the combined caliber of these two tools has been net investment, so there is no need to worry too much. Starting from August, the maturity time and operation time of MLF will change from misaligned to consistent, solving the problem of affecting market expectations for medium - term liquidity [3][14] 3. Government Bond Supply - It is expected that in August 2025, the government bond issuance will be 2.17 - 2.39 trillion yuan, and the net financing will be 1.17 - 1.39 trillion yuan, close to the 1.25 trillion yuan in July. From January to July 2025, a total of 9.02 trillion yuan of the annual quota has been used, accounting for 65% of the annual 13.86 trillion yuan, with the local bond issuance progress slightly faster than that of national bonds. There are new policy tools to be launched, and they are expected to be implemented in the third quarter [4][17][18] 4. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Recently, the increase in market risk appetite has not only pressured the bond market but also disturbed the inter - bank capital market. The 1 - year CD interest rate started to rise slightly after reaching around 1.6% at the beginning of July. The maturity scale of CDs in August will rise slightly to 3.07 trillion yuan, increasing the pressure on renewal. Before the policy interest rate is further lowered, the 1 - year CD interest rate is likely to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and there is a certain allocation value at 1.65% and above. Unless the central bank tightens liquidity investment, the probability of a significant price increase for issuance is not high, and the CD interest rate in August will mainly fluctuate seasonally [5][25]

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周度报告-国债期货 基本面利多确定，把握回调买债机会 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货高位震荡 国 债 期 货 本周（05.05-05.11）国债期货高位震荡。周二，央行通过逆回购 大量净回笼资金，资金面并未继续转松，短端品种表现偏弱。 市场预期 4 月经济指标走弱，长端品种表现略偏强。周三，早 盘央行官宣降准降息，利率短暂下行后机构止盈意愿快速上 升，国债期货震荡调整。短端品种表现强于长端。周四，资金 面边际转松，股市进一步走强动力不足，国债期货震荡上涨， 曲线走陡。周五，早盘资金面转松，国债期货震荡上涨，但 4 月出口数据超市场预期，午后国债期货震荡走弱。截至 5 月 9 日 收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主连合约结算价 分别为 102.356、106.105、109.035 和 120.320 元，分别较上周末 变动-0.012、+0.005、-0.015 和-0.520 元。 ★基本面利多确定，把握回调买债机会 展望后市，市场应在震荡中逐渐走强，建议把握时机做多。基 本面利多是相对确定的，债市中长期走强的方向也是明确的， 只是也要注意，国债期货价格依旧不低且短期或有贸易谈 ...