Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, geopolitical and macro factors intermittently affected oil prices, which maintained a wide - range fluctuation. Asphalt supply continued to increase, and terminal demand recovered month - on - month, but the release of terminal demand was limited. Under the pattern of both supply and demand booming, the industrial chain inventory decreased continuously. In the short term, the spot price of asphalt is expected to run weakly, the single - side of asphalt futures is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3450 [4][5][34]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In September, geopolitical and macro factors intermittently affected oil prices, which maintained a wide - range fluctuation, and the discount of diluted asphalt remained stable. The supply of asphalt continued to increase, and terminal demand recovered month - on - month, gradually entering the peak season. Under the pattern of both supply and demand booming, the industrial chain inventory decreased continuously. Currently, refinery inventory is at a low level with a slow destocking speed, and social inventory continues to decline. The processing profit of refineries is acceptable, supporting high - level operation of local refineries, and the valuation of asphalt is relatively high [4][9]. 1.2 Market Outlook - The near - end of oil prices rebounded strongly, providing some support for the cost side of asphalt, but the spot price was weak. Supply continued to increase, while demand was expected to be weak due to typhoon weather and the approaching National Day holiday. The inventory of the industrial chain showed a differentiated trend, with social inventory continuously destocking and releasing supply, while the inventory pressure of refineries gradually increased. In the short term, the spot price will run weakly, the single - side of asphalt futures is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3450 [5][34]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: Range - bound fluctuations. - Arbitrage: The spread between asphalt and crude oil is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2512 contract [6][35]. 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - Same as the market review in the preface summary, geopolitical and macro factors affected oil prices, asphalt supply increased, demand recovered, inventory decreased, refinery profit was acceptable, and asphalt valuation was relatively high [4][9]. 2.2 Supply Overview - From January to August 2025, China's asphalt production was 18.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.46 million tons or 9%. In August, the total domestic refinery asphalt production was 2.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.61 million tons, and it was 0.12 million tons more than the previous production plan. It is estimated that from January to September 2025, China's asphalt production will be about 20.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99 million tons or 11%. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in October 2025 is expected to be about 1.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 million tons (statistics in mid - August) or 9%, and a year - on - year increase of 0.5 million tons or 46%. In August, the domestic asphalt import was 269,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 111,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 32,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the total asphalt import was 2.375 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 203,000 tons or 7.9% [13][14][16]. 2.3 Demand Overview - In September 2025, the demand in Shandong and East China was stable, and the rush - construction demand was gradually released; the demand in Northeast and North China was average, affected by transportation, rainfall, and construction restrictions; the demand in South China recovered after the reduction of rainfall but was briefly suppressed by typhoons; the demand in Southwest Yunnan and Guizhou started with the reduction of rainfall, while the demand in Sichuan and Chongqing was sluggish. The overall rush - construction demand increased later, but the demand release in some regions was less than expected due to factors such as inventory and funds. The refinery's shipment volume increased month - on - month to a relatively high level in the same period. On the week of September 19, the shipment was 660,000 tons, an increase of 120,000 tons or 22% compared with the previous month and an increase of 280,000 tons or 75% compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of road modified asphalt increased month - on - month but was still lower than the same period in previous years, and as of September 19, it was 30.31%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points compared with the previous month and a decrease of 3.19 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of waterproofing membranes also increased month - on - month and was at a neutral level in the same period, an increase of 5.97 percentage points to 36.57% [23]. 2.4 Inventory and Valuation - The inventory of the industrial chain decreased seasonally and remained at a low level in the same period. In September, the refinery inventory rate was 26.2%, a slight destocking of 0.5% compared with August, and it was still at a low level in the same period. The social inventory continued to destock. The cost price of asphalt fluctuated at a relatively low level, and the processing profit increased slightly month - on - month. As of September 24, it was - 37.3 yuan/ton, an increase of about 37.3 yuan/ton compared with the same period in August. The discount of diluted asphalt decreased slightly by about 0.5 US dollars to 6.5 US dollars/barrel compared with the end of August. In terms of basis, in East China, affected by rainfall in the middle and late ten - days, the demand and spot price decreased, and the basis decreased by about 63 yuan to 10 yuan/ton compared with the end of August, which was at a medium level in the same period. In South China, the demand gradually improved, but the social inventory was still at a high level, and the basis rebounded from a low level and then maintained a range - bound fluctuation, reaching 60 yuan/ton as of September 25, an increase of 67 yuan/ton compared with the previous month. In Shandong, the supply increased, but the demand was also gradually released, and the basis remained stable, an increase of about 57 yuan to 190 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [28][29]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The near - end of oil prices rebounded strongly, providing some support for the cost side of asphalt, but the spot price was weak. Supply continued to increase, while demand was expected to be weak due to typhoon weather and the approaching National Day holiday. The inventory of the industrial chain showed a differentiated trend, with social inventory continuously destocking and releasing supply, while the inventory pressure of refineries gradually increased. In the short term, the spot price will run weakly, the single - side of asphalt futures is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3450. Strategy recommendations are single - side range - bound fluctuations, the spread between asphalt and crude oil fluctuating weakly, and selling out - of - the - money call options for the BU2512 contract [34][35].