石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-26 成本端企稳反弹，沥青自身市场驱动有限 市场分析 1、8月25日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3512元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨33元/吨，涨幅 0.95%；持仓191301手，环比下降17115手，成交169612手，环比上涨30160手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3856—4086元/吨；山东，3450—3800元/吨；华南，3480—3500元/吨； 华东，3560—3750元/吨。 昨日华北市场价格出现上涨，山东市场价格有所下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。近日原油价格出现企稳 反弹迹象，BU盘面跟随上涨，市场下方支撑开始显现。就沥青自身基本面而言，当前供需两弱格局大体延续，虽 然供应端增长受限，在天气与资金因素影响下刚需同样改善乏力，市场交投氛围一般，投机需求偏弱。总体来看， 沥青市场内生性的上行驱动不足。如果油价能延续反弹态势，盘面将得到一定提振，但持续性存疑。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期 ...

今晚过后，成品油价或迎来年内第七次下调。 △今晚过后，成品油价或迎来年内第七次下调。（资料图，图片由CNSPHOTO提供） 据卓创资讯分析师许磊介绍，新一轮成品油调价窗口周期内，国际原油基本面多空因素交织，原油价格维持在63—66元/桶附近区间波动。究其原因，一 方面美俄、美乌和美欧等俄乌冲突各方领导人近期密集会晤，原油供应端地缘风险减弱；但另一方面，美联储9月降息预期和俄乌谈判前景的不确定性仍 存，整体使得油价虽震荡回升但向上波动空间有限。 从整体来看，"目前国际原油价格缺乏单边利好指引，本轮原油变化率持续在负值范围内运行，当前成品油零售调价窗口处于下调预期。"许磊认为。 2025年第17轮油价调整将于8月26日24时开启。8月25日，油价周期统计第9个工作日，目前原油变化率-4.18%，预计下调油价205元/吨。 折合升计算，汽 柴油价格下降0.16—0.19元/升。 回顾今年国内成品油调价情况，25次油价调整其中已完成16次， 油价调整呈现出"6涨6跌4搁浅"的局面。 （注：具体的调整幅度以国家发展改革委公布的为准） 来源丨中国商报微信综合自央视财经、21世纪经济报道等 责编丨白雅琦 付颢琬 展望后市， ...

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 行业评级 ——看好 上次评级——看好 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：美俄谈判未达[Table_T 成协议itle ， ]国际油价反弹 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 | 一周原油点评 5 | | --- | | 油价回顾： 5 | | 石油石化板块表现 5 | | 石油石化板块表现： 5 | | 上游板块公司股价表现： 6 | | 原油价格 7 | | 海上钻井服务 9 | | 原油板块 10 | | 原油供给： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-22原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1.基本面：克利夫兰联邦储备银行总裁哈玛克、堪萨斯城联邦储备银行总裁施密德和亚特兰大联邦储备银 行总裁博斯蒂克对下月降息的可能性态度冷淡，投资者则在为美联储主席鲍威尔即将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍 尔年度会议上的演讲做准备；美国贸易顾问纳瓦罗谈及印度与俄罗斯的石油贸易，称印度需要购买俄罗斯 石油"是荒谬的"，预计特朗普政府对印度的关税将于8月27日翻倍；安哥拉7月石油产量未能达到政府预 期，其原油产量下滑至100万桶/日下方，为两年半以来首次；中性 2.基差：8月21日，阿曼原油现货价为69.78美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.38美元/桶，基差33.86 元/桶，现货平水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至8月15日当周API原油库存减少241.7万桶，预期减少158.7万桶；美国至8月15日当周EIA 库存减少601.4万桶，预期减少175.9万桶；库欣地区库存至8月15日当周增加41.9万桶，前值增加4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Oil prices are fluctuating around the US - Russia meeting, with a slight rebound due to oversold recovery, but pressured by high South American oil production. PX supply has recovered with new plant launches and restarts, and it has strong bottom support due to low inventory. Its future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industry chain, and social inventory is decreasing due to PTA demand, but PTA downstream开工 has a strong downward expectation [2]. - PTA supply has a mix of restarts and maintenance. Spot prices rose slightly with the market, but with low processing fees, new plant launch expectations on the supply - side and weak demand in the off - season, it's hard to have a trend - upward market. It will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip prices are stable. Supply - side starts are at a low level, with local shortages of spot goods. Downstream procurement is cautious [2]. - Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.96/barrel (up 0.13%), Brent at $66.63/barrel (up 0.06%), naphtha at $568/ton (down 0.44%), isomeric xylene at $690.5/ton (up 0.15%), and PX CFR China Main Port at $833.67/ton (up 0.24%) [1]. - **PTA**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE TA main contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.42%), settled at 4,718 yuan/ton (up 0.21%); spot PTA in China was 4,698 yuan/ton (up 0.58%); CCFEI PTA domestic index was 4,705 yuan/ton (up 0.21%), and the foreign index was $625/ton (up 0.48%) on August 11 [1]. - **PX**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PX main contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.80%), settled at 6,808 yuan/ton (up 0.56%); domestic PX spot was 6,708 yuan/ton (up 0.04%) on August 11 [1]. - **PR**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PR main contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.51%), settled at 5,954 yuan/ton (up 0.27%); polyester bottle - chip in East China and South China markets remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton and 5,950 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 12, 2025, CCFEI polyester fiber DTY index was 8,625 yuan/ton (up 0.29%), POY remained stable at 7,125 yuan/ton, FDY68D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), FDY150D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), short - fiber was 6,495 yuan/ton (up 0.23%), polyester chip was 5,880 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), and bottle - grade chip remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton [2]. Spread Information - On August 11, 2025, PXN spread was $265.67/ton (up 1.72%), PX - MX spread was $143.17/ton (up 0.70%) [1]. - On August 12, 2025, PTA near - far month spread remained at - 18 yuan/ton, PTA basis was - 21 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), PX basis was - 124 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), PR basis in East China was - 54 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and in South China was - 14 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [1] Operation Rate and Sales Rate - On August 12, 2025, PX operation rate was 78.11%, PTA factory load rate was 76.56%, polyester factory load rate was 86.88% (down 0.21%), bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load rate was 57.83% [1]. - On August 12, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 42% (down 1%), polyester short - fiber sales rate was 58% (up 7%), and polyester chip sales rate was 115% (up 18%) [1] Device Information - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 and restarted on August 10 [2]. Trading Strategy - After price corrections, the TA2509 contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.38%) with a trading volume of 367,400 lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.92%) with a trading volume of 68,800 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.44%) with a trading volume of 17,000 lots. Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating for asphalt is oscillating weakly, while there are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The demand for asphalt is weak, and the spot price has declined slightly [1]. Recently, the crude oil price has started to oscillate and decline, weakening the cost - side support for asphalt, which has a negative impact on the sentiment of the futures and spot markets. The supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with inventory at a low level and no significant signs of inventory accumulation. The short - term market surplus pressure is limited, but the market sentiment is mediocre. Without the influence of cost - side factors, the fundamental driving force for asphalt is limited. If the oil price continues to fall, the asphalt market price will also weaken further [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 11th, the closing price of the main BU2510 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 221,001 lots, a decrease of 611 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 162,843 lots, an increase of 5,523 lots compared to the previous day [2]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,530 - 3,970 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,540 - 3,630 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,650 - 3,800 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in the Northwest, Shandong, and South China markets decreased yesterday, while the price in the North China market increased slightly, and the prices in other regions remained stable for the time being [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened on August 12, 2025, but the retail price remains unchanged due to low crude oil price fluctuations and a failure to meet international adjustment thresholds [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The international oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI crude oil settling at $63.96 per barrel and Brent crude at $66.63 per barrel as of August 11, 2025 [1] - OPEC+ announced a completion of a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking an early exit from a previous reduction plan, which negatively impacted the oil market [1] - The crude oil price change rate was recorded at 0.55%, indicating a potential domestic gasoline and diesel price increase of 20 yuan per ton, but it did not reach the international adjustment threshold [1] Group 2: Gasoline Market Analysis - The operating rate of local refineries remained stable at around 52%, while the operating rate of major refineries increased to approximately 84%, leading to a slight increase in refined oil supply [3] - The domestic gasoline market is characterized by a cautious atmosphere due to normal travel activities and fluctuating crude oil prices, resulting in a downward trend in gasoline prices [3] - The increasing penetration of electric vehicles has led to lower-than-expected gasoline demand [3] Group 3: Diesel Market Analysis - Diesel market supply has slightly increased, but demand has weakened due to increased rainy weather and reduced agricultural oil consumption following the summer harvest [3] - Diesel inventory reached 1.1477 million tons in July, reflecting an 11.37% month-on-month increase, indicating a potential downward trend in diesel prices [3] - The overall diesel market is experiencing a decline in prices due to stable infrastructure and logistics demand [4] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The upcoming end of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the U.S. and unresolved supply risks are expected to keep international oil prices weak in the short term [4] - Domestic refinery operating rates have increased, leading to a relaxed supply of refined oil, while gasoline demand has not shown significant growth, suggesting a continued downward trend in gasoline prices [4] - Diesel demand is also expected to decline further, indicating a potential continuation of lower diesel prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unavailable 2. Core Viewpoints - The rigid demand for asphalt is weak, and the market trading is relatively light [1] - The cost - side support for asphalt has weakened due to the continuous decline in crude oil prices, and the price trend will marginally weaken if oil prices continue to fall. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory and limited short - term excess pressure, but there is limited upward drive from the fundamentals [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 5th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,520 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 208,129 lots, a decrease of 3,838 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 128,452 lots, a decrease of 11,859 lots [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,570 - 3,970 yuan/ton; South China 3,560 - 3,630 yuan/ton; East China 3,650 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, East China, and South China decreased, while other regions remained stable [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply - demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has warmed up, and the propylene futures market has recovered. However, the continuous decline in crude oil prices at the cost end, combined with insufficient supply - demand drivers, restricts the upward space of propylene. On the supply side, there are maintenance works at Tianjin Bohua and Dongming Petrochemical, and the upstream operating rate has declined slightly. The overall operating rate of PDH has also decreased slightly month - on - month. There is an expectation of restarting the Bohua PDH device in early August, and with the expected release of new production capacity, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, some polypropylene and octanol devices have restarted, providing phased support for demand. The overall downstream operating rate has increased slightly month - on - month, but the sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season of demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate are provided [16][23][26] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Information includes the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are given [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: BU2509 opened at 3658 yuan/ton, closed at 3573 yuan/ton, with a high of 3659 yuan/ton, a low of 3566 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.16%, and a trading volume of 16.91 million lots. BU2510 opened at 3657 yuan/ton, closed at 3556 yuan/ton, with a high of 3657 yuan/ton, a low of 3547 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%, and a trading volume of 14.03 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in the northwest and northeast markets rose slightly, while those in the north China, Shandong, south China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions fell. The east China market remained stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices dropped, which had a significant negative impact on the spot market [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai will resume asphalt production in early August, and the plant operating rate will rebound. The total asphalt production plan of domestic refineries in August is 2.433 million tons [6] - Demand: Demand is expected to continue to recover, but the extent remains to be seen. In August, precipitation in north China and northeast China is still relatively high, but the overall weather conditions have improved. Coupled with the rush demand for some projects, it is generally beneficial to demand [6] Operation Suggestions - The growth of asphalt supply is relatively limited, and demand is in the peak season, but the actual performance remains to be seen. Considering the performance of oil prices, it is expected that the unilateral price of asphalt will mainly fluctuate. In terms of arbitrage, consider going long on the crack spread after the upward trend of oil prices slows down [7] Group 3: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3580 - 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to the large planned production volume of Guangzhou Petrochemical, the road and shipping prices of Guangzhou Petrochemical were lowered by 50 yuan/ton over the weekend. Today, it mainly shipped by sea, and there was no road transport resource available for circulation. In addition, the decline in asphalt futures led to the start of transactions of low-price contracts of spot-futures traders in the south China social inventory, driving the spot price in south China to decline slightly [8] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3590 - 4070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The significant decline in international oil prices led to the decline of asphalt futures, which had a negative impact on the spot market from the cost side and market sentiment. Although the trading in the spot market continued to be stable, the quotes of some refineries and traders still decreased, resulting in the decline of the spot price in the Shandong market [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt crack spread, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][17][20]