投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【沥青（BU）】 供需双减，山东地区价格趋稳 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 沥青：供需双减，山东地区价格趋稳 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）11月地炼排产降低：四大生产主体表现分化，11 月排产受季节、装置检修等因素影响呈现环比下滑态势。11 月国内沥青总排产计划 225 万吨，环 | | | | | | | 比减少 18%），同比减少 7 万吨（降幅 3%），整体供应收缩。中石油：排产 41 万吨，环比减 14 万吨、同比增 | 48 万吨（降幅 | | 8 万吨。北方气温走低导 | | | | 致需求下滑，克石化、辽河石化等降产，叠加中油秦皇岛停产，拖累环比产量。中石化：排产 35 万吨，环比减 8 万吨、同 ...

"预计本轮成品油零售限价压线小幅下调概率较大，折合升价，汽、柴油下调幅度或在0.05元／升左 右。对于广大消费者而言，加满一箱50升的92号汽油，预计将节省2.5元左右，整体变化有限。"王芦青 补充说。 （文章来源：新华财经） 据卓创资讯分析师王芦青具体介绍，本计价周期以来，受美俄最新有关俄乌冲突的消息影响，油价在宽 幅波动中承压调整，地缘溢价继续回吐。不过，周内公布的美国原油库存数据显示上周美国商业原油意 外去库，且美国单周的汽油需求和馏分油需求环比也出现增加，表明美国石油基本面短期偏强，支撑油 价。在上述因素影响下，本周期原油价格宽幅震荡，对应的原油变化率在负值范围内低位波动。据卓创 资讯测算，截至11月20日收盘，国内第9个工作日，参考原油变化率-1.24%，预计汽柴油下调55元／ 吨，调价窗口11月24日24时。 本计价周期（2025年11月10日24时至2025年11月24日24时）以来，国际原油呈现宽幅震荡行情，受此影 响，国内参考的原油变化率在在负值范围内波动，第9个工作日计算后的下调幅度在55元／吨，略高于 50元／吨的成品油调价红线。考虑到目前距离调价窗口仅剩一个工作日，且原油或继续低位震荡 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 4, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trade sideways today, with the plastic main contract fluctuating, oil prices rebounding due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the Sino-US meeting, and the peak season demand for agricultural films continuing [4]. - PP is also expected to trade sideways today, with the main contract fluctuating, oil prices rebounding, and downstream peak season demand supporting [6]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to polyolefin costs. The Sino - US leaders' meeting led to the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" and a one - year suspension of the 301 investigation. The sanctions on Russian oil by the US and Europe in late October led to an oil price rebound. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, while the restocking of other films is gradually ending. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6910 (-60), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 22, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 46.6 tons (-9.9), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is long, which is bullish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound and the Sino - US meeting reaching a phased easing; negative factors include weaker year - on - year demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The Sino - US meeting and Russian oil sanctions affected oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current PP delivery spot price is 6550 (-80), with overall neutral fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 26, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.4%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.5 tons (-4.3), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors are the same as LLDPE; negative factors also include weaker year - on - year demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6910 (-60), the 01 contract price is 6888 (-11), the basis is 22 (-49), and the PE comprehensive inventory shows different changes in various types [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6550 (-80), the 01 contract price is 6576 (-14), the basis is - 26 (-66), and the PP comprehensive inventory also has different changes in various types [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth rates and changes. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed, with the import dependence gradually decreasing and the consumption growth rate showing fluctuations [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have fallen from short - term highs, and asphalt prices have declined overall this week. The supply of asphalt is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is neutral, and cost is neutral. The overall trend of asphalt continues to fluctuate with crude oil, showing a situation where the peak season is not prosperous [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is rated as neutral. In November 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (6.5%). This week, the overall supply slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Zhonghai Yingkou and intermittent production at Jiangsu Xinhai and Sinochem Quanzhou [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. Affected by capital and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China are sluggish. Shandong stimulates downstream purchases by lowering prices and there is catch - up work after less rainfall. The demand in East China is also weak, with low prices and low shipments. The overall market demand is slowly declining with the drop in temperature. However, the total domestic asphalt shipments this week reached 469,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.3%. Shipments in North China and Northeast China have improved [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. The inventory of asphalt production enterprises has decreased this week, in line with last week's expectations. The inventory in most regions has declined, especially in Shandong. The social inventory has also decreased but does not meet last week's expectations. The social inventory in Shandong has decreased significantly due to improved weather and increased demand for catch - up projects [3] - **Cost**: It is neutral. This week, international oil prices fluctuated upwards. They first rose due to new US sanctions on Russia and upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, then fell due to doubts about the implementation of Russian sanctions, OPEC +'s planned production increase in December, and increased Iraqi oil exports in September, and finally rebounded due to positive EIA inventory data, positive signals from Sino - US and US - South Korea agreements, and the Fed's interest rate cut [3] - **Investment View**: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. With high supply and declining demand in the north affected by the rainy season, the peak season for asphalt is not prosperous, and its long - term trend continues to follow crude oil [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the outlook is oscillating; for arbitrage, there are no opportunities. Key risks to watch include OPEC + production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [3] Part Two: Price - There are multiple price charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions from 2021 to 2025, including national and regional data [5][6][8] Part Two: Spread & Basis & Delivery Profit - **Spread**: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - **Basis**: There is a chart showing the asphalt basis in major regions from 2024 to 2025 [14] Part Two: Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: There are charts showing the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025, as well as production data in different regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [17][21][24] - **Capacity Utilization**: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [29][33][35] - **Maintenance Loss**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [40] Part Two: Cost & Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [43][44] - **Diluted Asphalt**: There are charts showing the price, premium/discount, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [47][48] Part Three: Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [52][55] - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [58] Part Three: Demand - **Shipment Volume**: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [61] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [63][64][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The decline in oil prices has dragged down the trading atmosphere in the propylene spot market. The supply of propylene is expected to increase, while demand is mainly rigid due to price fluctuations and profit pressures. The cost - side support is weakening, and there is insufficient short - term upward drive. It is necessary to continue to monitor the impact of the cost side and the start - stop status of PDH plants [1][2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, conduct counter - arbitrage when PL01 - 02 is high, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil major refinery capacity utilization rate [17][25][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures are the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [66]

Report Overview - Report Title: Short Fiber and Bottle Chip Weekly Report - Report Date: October 26, 2025 - Report Author: Chen Xinchao, He Xiaoqin, Qian Jiayin Industry Investment Ratings - Short Fiber (PF): Short - term range - bound, medium - term bearish [3] - Bottle Chip (PR): Range - bound with a downward bias [2] Core Views - **Short Fiber**: Cost support is weak, and the market is range - bound. Although upstream oil issues have pushed up crude oil prices, the supply of naphtha remains in excess. The improvement in domestic demand needs to be verified, and there are still uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: Cost support is weak, and the market is range - bound. In the fourth quarter, factory operations are expected to remain around 80%. Demand from October to November is expected to decline quarter - on - quarter, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation in the near term [9]. Summary by Section Short Fiber (PF) - **Supply**: Short - fiber factory operations are maintained, with an average operating rate of 94.3%. Spinning - grade direct - spun polyester staple fiber operations are maintained at 94.5%. In the future, operations are expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95%. Recently, downstream procurement has been relatively active, and factories may have the incentive to slightly increase operations [8]. - **Demand**: There has been a significant amount of positive - feedback restocking in the market, and short - fiber inventories have continued to decline. After the comprehensive cooling, the downstream market has improved, and the terminal has placed additional orders. Both woven grey fabrics and yarns have reduced their inventories, alleviating pressure, and profits have also improved. However, after a round of positive - feedback restocking following the increase in raw material prices, the terminal sentiment has gradually cooled off around the weekend, and the sustainability of the peak season still needs to be observed. The current situation of foreign trade is still not good [8]. - **Valuation**: The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is neutral. The futures margin is 1000 yuan/ton, and the valuations of the margin and the inter - month spread are basically reasonable, while the basis is relatively high [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold the 01 - 02 calendar spread long position; go long PF and short PR in the 2601 contract [8]. Bottle Chip (PR) - **Supply**: In the fourth quarter, factory operations are expected to remain around 80%. This week, operations have slightly increased to 82%. On the one hand, processing margins have recovered, and on the other hand, it is the off - season for demand. In the future, operations are expected to remain at around 80%, with no strong motivation for significant production cuts or increases. Fuhai is expected to start production in November, increasing the actual supply [9]. - **Demand**: Low - price procurement has still shown significant volume, including purchases by large enterprises and speculative demand. Bottle - chip factory inventories have remained at around 17 days. From October to November, demand is expected to decline quarter - on - quarter. The operations of beverage factories have decreased to around 60% - 70%, and the operations of edible oil and sheet material factories have also decreased. Sea freight rates have declined, and the export volume in subsequent months is generally in line with the seasonality of domestic demand. The export volume from October to November is expected to be in the range of 50 - 550,000 tons. The United States has removed bottle chips from the exemption list, and attention should be paid to the impact of export replacement in subsequent months [9]. - **Valuation**: The current spot processing margin is 500 - 550 yuan/ton, which is relatively high. The processing margins of the November and December futures contracts are 450 - 500 yuan/ton, which are also relatively high but may be difficult to compress due to the weak cost [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold the calendar spread long position; go long TA and short PR in the December contract (enter when the processing margin is around 480 - 500 yuan/ton); go long PF and short PR in the 01 contract [9]. Cost and Profit - **Bottle Chip**: Aggregate costs have risen to around 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton. Bottle - chip processing margins have been passively compressed, with the spot processing margin around 480 - 550 yuan/ton. The export profit, calculated based on the domestic aggregate cost, is approximately 800 - 850 yuan/ton, indicating a relatively high level of export profit [45]. Inventory - **Bottle Chip**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has increased. Domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventories have decreased to around 17 days. From October to November, inventory accumulation is expected to continue. According to CCF data, the preliminary estimate of social inventory in September was 2.77 million tons, the estimate for October is 3 million tons, and the estimate for November is 3.24 million tons [50][55]. - **Short Fiber**: There has been positive - feedback restocking in the market, and short - fiber inventories have continued to decline. The 1.4D equity inventory is 3.4 days, and the physical inventory is 15 days (a decrease of 0.8 days compared to the previous period) [8]. Device Changes - **Bottle Chip**: Sanfangxiang has slightly increased its operations. A 600,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip device at Huarun's Jiangyin factory has been shut down. The 750,000 - ton device in Yisheng Hainan and the 350,000 - ton device in Yisheng Dalian remain shut down. Fuhai's new 300,000 - ton device is expected to start production in November [56]. Demand - **Bottle Chip**: The operations of beverage enterprises have gradually declined to 50% - 75%. In the sheet material sector, operations in East China are at 50% - 70%, and operations in South China are at 40% - 60%. The average operations of edible oil enterprises are around 50% - 70% [60][61]. - **Short Fiber**: After the comprehensive cooling, the downstream market has improved, and the terminal has placed additional orders. Both woven grey fabrics and yarns have reduced their inventories, alleviating pressure, and profits have also improved. However, the sustainability of the peak season still needs to be observed. The current situation of foreign trade is still not good [8]. Export - **Bottle Chip**: In September 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 593,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. Among them, the export volume under tariff code 39076910 was 125,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.3%, and the export volume under tariff code 39076110 was 468,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market continues to be weak, with PE and PP prices under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and weakening cost support [1][2][3] - For PE, the continuous decline is due to loose supply - demand fundamentals, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices. For PP, the weakening is dragged down by falling crude oil and propane prices, along with a loose supply - demand pattern [2][3] - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and provides strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6879 yuan/ton (+5), PP main contract at 6565 yuan/ton (+14). LL North China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (+30), LL East China spot at 6950 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6580 yuan/ton (+10). LL North China basis was 1 yuan/ton (+25), LL East China basis 71 yuan/ton (-5), PP East China basis 15 yuan/ton (-4) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 492.1 yuan/ton (-17.4), PP oil - based production profit was - 127.9 yuan/ton (-17.4), PDH - based PP production profit was 110.2 yuan/ton (-21.6) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 150.2 yuan/ton (+0.3), PP import profit was - 573.0 yuan/ton (-49.7), PP export profit was 31.3 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: Recent continuous decline is due to loose supply - demand, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices. Supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Demand follows up limitedly, and cost support weakens. Monitor cost and macro - policy impacts [2] - **PP**: The weakening of the futures market is due to falling crude oil and propane prices and a loose supply - demand pattern. Supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Demand follows up insufficiently, and cost support weakens. Monitor propane supply and PDH device operation [3] Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see; short - term weak and volatile, focus on macro - dynamics [4] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4] - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Summary of PTA Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) industry has experienced a significant price decline in 2025, with an average price of 4,800 RMB/ton from January to September, down 14.4% year-on-year [1][4][9] - The price fluctuation range has narrowed, primarily influenced by tariff policies and crude oil price volatility [1][4] - PTA production increased by 3.3% year-on-year to 54.6 million tons, while the operating rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 77.5% due to unexpected maintenance [1][7][6] Key Points and Arguments Price Dynamics - PTA prices fluctuated between 4,000 and 5,000 RMB/ton, with significant price drops in April due to tariff impacts and crude oil price declines [4][9] - The processing fee for PTA has been low, with a sharp decline from July, averaging 161 RMB in September [5][8] Supply and Demand Factors - The processing fee decline is attributed to a 15% drop in crude oil prices and a 28% compression in PX (Paraxylene) processing efficiency [5][8] - The industry faced supply pressure due to reduced procurement from Turkey, which cut Chinese purchases by 300,000 tons [1][7] - The demand from end-manufacturing and texturing machines decreased by 7-8%, leading to weakened market sentiment [1][10] Tariff Policy Impact - Tariff increases starting in February led to a significant market slowdown, with exports halting temporarily until adjustments were made in May [9][10] - The tariffs created a waiting period during what should have been a peak season, affecting overall market dynamics [9] Future Outlook - The PTA industry is expected to continue facing challenges, but there are opportunities for recovery as PX production is anticipated to alleviate some pressure on PTA profitability in the next five years [18][20] - The PTA inventory-to-sales ratio has been declining since 2020, currently at a historically low level, indicating potential for continued destocking and market recovery [22] Export Opportunities and Challenges - India presents a significant export opportunity as it is the largest PTA demand country outside of China, with new production facilities expected to impact Chinese exports [21] - However, challenges arise from the expansion of overseas PTA facilities, particularly in Turkey and India, which could affect market dynamics [21][25] Industry Performance and Collaboration - Major PTA companies currently lack a unified collaboration plan, with varying operational statuses and maintenance schedules [23][31] - The overall operational load for the PTA industry is approximately 77.77%, with potential for slight increases unless affected by maintenance [31] Additional Insights - Short fiber enterprises are performing relatively well, maintaining processing fees around 1,000 RMB, but their market influence is limited due to their smaller share of the polyester capacity [12] - The expansion of bottle chip capacity has led to increased inventory pressure, prompting factories to reduce production [11] - The market environment is characterized by low processing fees, leading to planned maintenance and reductions in non-integrated enterprises [16] This summary encapsulates the key insights and dynamics of the PTA industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both current challenges and future opportunities.

Core Points - A Chevron refinery in El Segundo, California, experienced a sudden explosion and fire on the evening of October 2, 2023, visible from several kilometers away [1][2] - The cause of the explosion is currently unknown, but emergency response teams have arrived to control the fire, which is now contained to a specific area of the refinery [2][3] - The refinery, built in 1911, processes 269,000 barrels of crude oil daily, accounting for over 16% of California's refining capacity and supplying more than 40% of the aviation fuel and over 20% of the gasoline for Southern California [4] Market Impact - Following the incident, both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI crude oil prices have seen an increase of approximately 0.9% [5]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.17% at 2,919 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.29% at 3,480 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices have rebounded recently, but the expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet is suppressing the market. Considering the unclear geopolitical situation, oil prices may fluctuate significantly during the National Day holiday [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the reduction in the number of registered futures warehouse receipts has also provided additional support for the FU futures structure. However, based on the current valuation level and supply-demand situation, the upward driving force of the high-sulfur fuel oil market is still limited and requires new variables [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent shutdown of RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local low-sulfur fuel oil supply, suppressing the crack spread and monthly spread structure. However, domestic production remains at a medium to low level, and the strong premium of gasoline and diesel has diverted low-sulfur oil components. Overall, the supply pressure is relatively limited. In the medium term, the trend of substitution of low-sulfur marine fuel demand share has not reversed, and there is still significant resistance above the market [1] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Cross-variety: No strategy [2] - Cross-period: Go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread on dips [2] - Spot-futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract monthly spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]