多路紧急救援队伍已赶赴现场，全力灭火。爆炸起火原因尚不清楚。目前暂无人员伤亡消息。据悉日常 情况下，厂区内有一两千员工，还专门配备了一支消防队。 据CBS消息，目前火势已经得到控制。洛杉矶县监事Holly Mitchell指出，救援人员已将火势控制在炼油 厂的一个区域内。她补充称，居民无需撤离，但建议居民暂时留在家中，外来访客则暂时避免前往该 市。"火势已得到控制，埃尔塞贡多及周边区域无需恐慌。" 雪佛龙石油公司旗下一座炼油厂突然爆炸起火。 据CCTV国际时讯，当地时间10月2日晚，在美国加利福尼亚州洛杉矶市附近的埃尔塞贡多市，美国雪 佛龙石油公司旗下一座炼油厂突然爆炸起火。火光冲天，映红夜空，数公里外都清晰可见。据CBS消 息，一名目击者称，爆炸带来的震感堪比小型地震。 资本市场方面，ICE布油和NYMEX WTI原油盘中持续走高，目前涨幅均在0.9%左右。 责任编辑：杨赐 据悉，起火的这家炼油厂距离洛杉矶国际机场和索菲体育场都很近。洛杉矶国际机场表示，此次火灾未 对机场运营造成影响，火灾发生后暂无航班取消、分流或延误情况。 根据雪佛龙公司官网信息，埃尔塞贡多炼油厂建于1911 年。据CCTV国际时讯报道， ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-09-30 市场短期矛盾有限，节前保持谨慎 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.17%，报2919元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.29%，报3480 元/吨。 原油价格近期有所反弹，但中期平衡表转松的预期对市场形成压制，考虑到地缘局势仍不明朗，国庆假期期间油 价可能出现大幅波动，建议保持谨慎。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油市场结构边际走强，期货注册仓单量减少也对FU盘面结构形成额外支撑。 但基于目前的估值水平与供需状况来看，高硫燃料油市场上行驱动仍有限，需要新的变量催化。 低硫燃料油方面，近期Dangote与Pengerang炼厂RFCC装置停工导致局部低硫燃料油供应增加，裂解价差与月差结 构受到一定压制。但与此同时，国产量维持中低位，汽柴油溢价偏强分流低硫油组分，整体来看供应压力相对有 限。中期来看，低硫船燃需求份额被替代的趋势尚未逆转，市场上方阻力依然较大。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 低硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 跨品种：无 跨期：逢低多FU2511-2512价差 期现：无 期权：无 风险 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-29原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：伊拉克石油部表示，在达成一项临时协议打破僵局后，伊拉克北部库尔德地区通往土耳其 的输油管道周六恢复原油输送，为两年半以来首次；三位熟悉谈判情况的消息人士称，OPEC+可能会 在10月5日的会议上批准再次增加石油产量，每天至少增加13.7万桶，因为油价上涨促使该组织试图进 一步夺回市场份额；美国总统特朗普将于周一与国会民主党和共和党领袖会面，在9月30日最后期限前 讨论政府拨款问题；中性 2.基差：9月26日，阿曼原油现货价为70.88元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.92元/桶，基差40.7 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周沥青观点：延续窄幅震荡 | 供应 | 国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为40.1%，环比增加5.7%。分析原因主要是本周虽然华东个别炼厂间歇停产以及降产，但新疆天之泽、河南 丰利以及江苏新海复产沥青，加之山东胜星、东明石化以及齐鲁石化稳定生产，导致产能利用率增加。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共49.6万吨，环比增加9.0%。分地区来看，山东地区增加最为明显，区内供应增加，加之下游赶工需求表现 尚可，炼厂出货积极性增加，带动出货量上升；而华东地区减少最多，主要因为主流炼厂 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、供应概况 | | 4 | | 三、需求概况 | | 6 | | 四、库存与估值 | | 8 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 | | 9 | | 免责声明 10 | | | 能化板块研发报告 沥青 9 月报 2025 年 9 月 26 日 供应增长，终端需求释放有限 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 9 月地缘和宏观间歇性影响油价，原油价格维持宽幅震荡，稀释沥青贴 水暂时维持稳定。9 月份沥青供应端持续增加，终端需求环比回升，逐渐进 入旺季。供需双旺的格局下，产业链库存持续下降。当前炼厂库存低位，去 库速度偏慢；社会库存持续下降，年底前存在主动去库的意向，为市场提供 额外供应。估值端，当前炼厂加工利润尚可，支撑地炼开工高位，沥青估值 相对偏高。 【市场展望】 油价近端反弹较强势，沥青成本端获得一定支撑，但现货价格表现偏弱。 供应持续增加，需求受 ...

| | | 塑料产业日报 2025-09-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7142 | 37 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7142 | 37 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7182 | 37 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7218 | 25 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 191081 | 10438 持仓量(日,手) | 571775 | -17901 | | | 1-5价差 | -40 | 0 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 423733 | -5604 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 479444 | -8589 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -55711 | 2985 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7166.96 | -3.91 LLDPE(7042) ...

本计价周期内，国际原油基本面受多空因素交织影响，前期受俄乌和中东局势升级影响，市场担忧石油 整体供应，且在宏观宽松的背景下，原油价格偏强运行为主，后期随着地缘扰动对市场的影响减弱，而 市场对石油累库的预期不变，在供应增加和需求弱化的背景下，原油价格连续多日延续偏弱行情。受此 影响，本周期的原油变化率由负转正后处于正值低位水平，据卓创资讯（301299）监测模型显示，9月 22日收盘，国内第10个工作日参考原油变化率0.39%，预计汽柴油上调15元/吨，调价窗口9月23日24 时。根据当前预测幅度来看，未达到国家零售限价调整红线，预计本轮成品油零售限价调整或搁浅，成 品油零售限价将遇两连搁。 卓创资讯预计，关注石油库存等基本面数据，累库周期将给予油价下行压力，但是美联储降息和欧洲局 势扰动，都给予油价部分支撑，短期看，油价维持偏弱运行行情。按当前原油价格测算，新周期的原油 变化率负值开局，预计首日对应的成品油零售限价下调幅度在80元/吨，调价窗口在10月13日24时，因 下轮调价周期横跨国庆、中秋"双节"，调价周期较长，最终结果尚存较大不确定性。 本轮成品油零售调价周期内(9月9日24时—9月23日24时)国际 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillation", with a short - term supply - demand contradiction not being prominent. In September, both supply and demand increased, and the long - term trend continues to follow crude oil fluctuations [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that in the asphalt market, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent during the traditional peak season, with both supply and demand increasing. Supply is affected by factors such as refinery production plans and raw material prices, demand shows regional differences, inventory is in a state of destocking, and cost is influenced by the complex situation in the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: For October's local refinery production schedule, two information companies' tracking data shows 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9%. Although factors like weak crude oil prices and sufficient raw materials in September - October boost production enthusiasm, some refinery maintenance and intermittent production limit the growth rate [4]. - **Demand**: In North China and Shandong, some projects are rushing to work, and demand is gradually being released. In East and South China, demand is average, but sales have increased due to preferential policies. This week's shipment volume reached 455,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.6%, with significant growth in North and East China [4]. - **Inventory**: This week, both factory and social inventories of asphalt in China are in a state of destocking, especially in Shandong, mainly due to contract fulfillment and actual terminal demand [4]. - **Cost**: This week, the crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend of "rising first and then falling". Multiple factors led to a decline in the price center. By Friday, WTI crude oil closed at $62.68 per barrel, and Brent at $66.68 per barrel, with the weekly average price down by $1.2 and $0.8 respectively compared to last week [4]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The investment view is "oscillation". The trading strategy for single - side trading is "oscillation", and there is no arbitrage strategy. Key risks to watch include OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][10]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - The report shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and asphalt basis in main regions from 2021 to 2025 [15][17][19]. 3.4 Supply - **Scheduled Production**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 08 [23]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [32][35][36]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [39]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It presents the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory volumes and rates in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [51][54]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [57]. 3.7 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It presents the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][69].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector showed a downward trend, with the main contract for paraxylene (PX) opening at 6698.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of approximately 2.63% [1] - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to a tight supply-demand balance, with recent domestic maintenance units gradually restarting, leading to weaker market sentiment and lack of driving force from crude oil [1] - The supply side remains stable with no significant changes in domestic and international facilities, while the demand side shows a slight increase in PTA processing fees, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [2] Group 2 - Domestic PX production for the week was reported at 770.98 million tons, with a utilization rate of 84.63%, remaining unchanged from the previous week [2] - PTA production increased to 138.8 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.77 million tons, with a utilization rate of 74.95%, up by 4.30% [2] - Short-term PX prices are anticipated to follow fluctuations in crude oil prices, with resistance around 6850 CNY and support near 6500 CNY [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for bottle-grade PET showed a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 5828.00 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 5830.00 CNY and a low of 5750.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.97% [1] - The supply of bottle-grade PET has slightly increased this week, while downstream market demand remains cautious, leading to a weak market performance [1] - In July, bottle-grade PET exports rebounded, and with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and falling crude oil prices, processing fees for bottle-grade PET are at a low level, suggesting a short-term weak price outlook [1] Group 2 - Domestic production of bottle-grade PET reached 330,300 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons or 0.32%, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.31%, up by 0.23% from the previous period [2] - The average weekly capacity utilization rate for China's polyester industry is 87.9%, reflecting an increase of 0.56% from the previous week [2] - In July, China exported 579,600 tons of bottle-grade PET, an increase of 34,100 tons or 6.25% compared to the previous month, with a cumulative export volume of 3,820,600 tons projected for 2025 [2]