宏观敏感性测算
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申万金工ETF组合202511
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-07 08:13
Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the construction methods and performance of various ETF portfolios in November 2025, including macro-based, macro + momentum, core - satellite, and trinity style rotation portfolios [2] Group 2: ETF Portfolio Construction Methods Based on Macro Approach - Calculate macro - sensitivity of indices tracked by broad - based, industry - themed, and Smart Beta ETFs according to economic, liquidity, and credit variables, and select ETFs monthly. Also consider adding momentum indicators. Traditional cyclical industries are suitable for economic up - periods, TMT for weak - economic but liquid - abundant times, and consumption benefits from credit expansion. Three ETF portfolios are constructed and rebalanced monthly [5] Trinity Style Rotation - Build a mid - to long - term style rotation model centered on macro - liquidity, compared with the CSI 300 index. Combine three models (growth/value, market - cap, and quality) to get 8 style preference results, then screen target - style - exposed ETFs with controlled industry exposure and set allocation limits [6] Group 3: Macro Industry Portfolio - Select industry - themed ETFs with over 1 - year establishment and over 200 million current scale. Calculate sensitivity scores, adjust according to economic, liquidity, and credit indicators, and select the top 6 industry - themed indices. Currently, with economic indicators rising and liquidity/credit tightening, the portfolio turns to value with high bank and cyclical proportions. November holdings are mainly bank and energy - related ETFs, each with a 16.67% weight. The portfolio has large fluctuations and was close to the CSI 300 in October [7][9][11] Group 4: Macro + Momentum Industry Portfolio - Combine macro and momentum methods to address the left - side bias of macro - based strategies. Use clustering to select one product with the highest 6 - month gain from each of 6 industry - themed groups. The portfolio includes many pro - cyclical industries. November holdings have multiple ETFs, with weights like 16.67% for some and 8.33% for others. The portfolio performed well this year and was close to the CSI 300 in October [12][14][15] Group 5: Core - Satellite Portfolio - Designed to address the high volatility and fast industry rotation of industry - themed ETFs. Use the CSI 300 as the core. Construct three sub - portfolios (broad - based, industry, and Smart Beta) and combine them at 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively. November holdings are mainly mid - to large - cap biased. The portfolio performed steadily this year, outperforming the index almost every month, including in October [16][17][21] Group 6: Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - The model favors small - cap growth + high - quality segments this period. The portfolio's factor exposure and historical performance are provided. November holdings include ETFs such as Southern CSI 500 ETF and Southern CSI 1000 ETF. The portfolio had significant fluctuations in monthly returns and outperformed the index in most months this year, including in October [22][23][26]
申万金工ETF组合202510
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-10 12:31
Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: October 10, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Shenwan Hongyuan Gold ETF Portfolio 202510 [1] - Analysts: Shen Siyi, Deng Hu [3] - Research Support: Bai Haotian [3] - Contact: Shen Enyi [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The report constructs four ETF portfolios, including the macro industry portfolio, macro + momentum industry portfolio, core - satellite portfolio, and trinity style rotation ETF portfolio, based on macro - sensitivity and momentum analysis, aiming to capture investment opportunities in different market environments [5][8]. - The current economic leading indicators are rising, liquidity indicators are slightly tight, and credit indicators remain positive. The portfolios are shifting towards a more balanced allocation, with an increased proportion of consumer sectors [5]. - The trinity style rotation model combines macro - liquidity, fundamental, and market sentiment factors to construct a medium - to long - term style rotation model, providing insights into market style preferences [5][9]. Group 4: ETF Portfolio Construction Methods 4.1 Based on Macro - Method - Calculate macro - sensitivity for broad - based, industry - theme, and Smart Beta ETFs based on economic, liquidity, and credit variables. Traditional cyclical industries are sensitive to the economy, TMT to liquidity, and consumption to credit [8]. - Construct three ETF portfolios (macro industry, macro + momentum industry, and core - satellite) using macro - sensitivity and momentum, and rebalance monthly [8]. 4.2 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - Build a medium - to long - term style rotation model centered on macro - liquidity, comparing with the CSI 300 index. Screen macro, fundamental, and market sentiment factors to construct three types of models (growth/value, market - cap, and quality) [9]. Group 5: Portfolio Details 5.1 Macro Industry Portfolio - Select the top 6 industry - theme indices based on macro - sensitivity scores, and equally weight the largest - scale corresponding ETFs. Currently, the portfolio is more balanced with an increased consumer proportion [5][10]. - October 2025 holdings include ETFs related to tourism, home appliances, chemicals, etc. [14]. - In 2025, the portfolio had varying monthly excess returns, with positive excess returns in September [15]. 5.2 Macro + Momentum Industry Portfolio - Combine macro and momentum methods. The pharmaceutical sector's weight is further reduced, and rare earth and battery sectors are selected on the momentum side [5][16]. - October 2025 holdings include multiple industry - themed ETFs [18]. - The portfolio performed well in 2025, with positive excess returns in September after a drawdown in August [19]. 5.3 Core - Satellite Portfolio - Use the CSI 300 as the core and combine broad - based, industry, and Smart Beta portfolios. Weight them at 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively [20][21]. - October 2025 holdings include a mix of broad - based and industry - themed ETFs [24][25]. - The portfolio performed steadily in 2025, outperforming the index almost every month [25]. 5.4 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - The model currently favors small - cap growth and high - quality styles. The portfolio's factor exposure and historical performance are presented [26][27]. - October 2025 holdings include ETFs related to small - cap indices and high - growth sectors [31]. - The portfolio has shown certain performance since 2021, with positive excess returns in September 2025 [30].