备注：本文是重新编辑后免费开放，正好 OVS 指标最近作了更新，老用户注意更新一下， VAD 是不用更新的。原文因为标题写得不够明显，导致不好找， 现在不存在问题了。 OVS是我标配的短期动量指标，它的基本定义是：涨幅*成交金额，必要时也考虑再乘上一个价格多空效率比。这个指标的原型出自埃尔德所创 的强力指标（《以交易为生》一书有讲），我只不过把其中的量柱定义V改成了成交金额AMO，这样做的好处是准确反映了交易过程中发生的金 额效应。 在猛兽动量体系中，VAD、OVS和RSR、RSLine同等重要，分别表达了不同阶段不同周期动量的核心逻辑。长、中、短周期指标相互配合，灵活 运用，可以高效发现强势板块和个股，并为评估买卖点提供重要参考依据。具体的使用技巧，散见号内其它文章，多补课就是。 以下是OVS指标和VAD指标源码： OVS指标： YC:=REF(C,1);HI:=MAX(H,YC);LW:=MIN(L,YC);BSR:=ABS(C-YC)/(HI-LW);{流通效率比}ZF:=(C-YC)/YC;{日间涨跌幅} YAMO:=REF(AMO,1);PV2:SUM(BSR*ZF*AMO/MA(AMO,N1),N ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expectation of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates starting in September due to a weak labor market and reduced inflation risks [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - Nomura's economists predict a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, followed by additional cuts in December and March of the following year [1] - The median analyst expectation is also for a 25 basis point cut within the next three months, although there is disagreement among economists regarding the timing of these cuts [1] Group 2: Market Indicators - The current USD index is at 97.86, with a slight increase of 0.02% from an opening price of 97.80 [1] - The 20-period moving average (97.5513) and the 50-period moving average (97.7919) are converging, indicating short-term bullish sentiment, but the price has not effectively broken through the resistance at the 50-period moving average [1] - The RSI indicator is at 71.91, indicating an overbought condition, and a potential "divergence" pattern is forming, where the price reaches a new high while the RSI does not [1]

Group 1 - The overall bull market is still intact, with no major turning points anticipated, despite a potential short-term pullback in market momentum [1] - A significant number of stocks are experiencing a sharp decline, indicating a widespread market correction, which is typical during market downturns [1] - The emergence of new leaders in the market has been accompanied by excessive selling pressure, suggesting caution for those who have made profits [1] Group 2 - A more optimistic scenario suggests that the market could consolidate around the 200-day moving average on a 15-minute chart, allowing for profit-taking before continuing upward [3] - A more conservative expectation involves a larger pullback on a 60-minute chart, potentially requiring a decline of at least five candlesticks on a daily chart [4] - The market may experience a challenging period similar to previous downturns, but with proper preparation, it can be managed effectively [6] Group 3 - The construction of a 60-minute central pivot is likely, which would provide a stronger foundation for future upward movements [7] - Previous predictions regarding the ChiNext Index indicated a potential for significant upward movement following a breakout, reinforcing the current analysis [8]

Core Viewpoint - The gold price remains stable around $3327 per ounce as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches, with limited bullish potential for gold [1][2]. Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, with investors closely analyzing the wording of the statement and Chairman Powell's speech for clues on future rate cuts [4][5]. Technical Analysis - Despite a reduction in negative momentum, there is still a risk of further declines in gold prices. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) acts as a dynamic resistance at $3345 per ounce, while the 100-day SMA provides support at $3250 per ounce [6]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3301.90, $3287.30, and $3274.05 per ounce, while resistance levels are at $3345.00, $3361.80, and $3377.15 per ounce [8].

昨天因为继续缩量横盘，没什么好说的，无非就是15分钟级别顶背离之后的凸形拐点悬停区间，就好比把一块石头往上丢，一个抛物线的顶端，速度逐渐 减为零，几何呈现为弧形拐弯。 所以，择时投机的本质就是理解市场情绪，情绪即动量；反之，如果被市场情绪牵着鼻子走，就坠入饿道轮回，万劫不复。 我们继续等待10/20/40周期的情绪指标再次粘合，或者其中两条粘合，以及15分钟级别动量指标的底背离特征，综合判断下一次高胜率切入位置。 形态学上，上次已经讲过，这是基底进入右侧之后构造3C区域的阶段，3C构造完成以后，再次突破就是口袋支点（枢轴点），进入欧马体系操作空间。 更重要的是，对猛兽股轮廓侧写的把握，大盘指数日线级别逐渐进入第二阶段时，超级大牛股将越来越明显，但这个群体数量并不多，处于幂律分布最顶 端的区域，无论从动力学和形态学都必须是无暇完美的，例如上一轮牛市中天赐材料，体会一下基底从左侧进入右侧的过程： 复盘历史上的超级大牛股，是学习欧马体系的必修课。从形态学、动力学、基本面、产业锚、催化剂等各方面反复比较揣摩，以及和大盘情绪起伏之间的 关系，等等。 持续缩量是因为买卖双方的冲动和理性意愿都在减退。 今天上午一开始还是延 ...