Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a divergence in the Eurozone's economic performance, with services outperforming manufacturing, leading to a mixed economic outlook [1] - The Eurozone's September PMI preliminary value shows a significant split, with services rising to 51.4, surpassing the expected 50.5, while manufacturing fell to 49.5 from 50.7, indicating contraction [1] - Germany's manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5, below the neutral line, while services rebounded to 52.5, reflecting strong domestic demand [1] - France's economic indicators show weakness, with manufacturing PMI declining to 48.1 and services dropping to 48.9, suggesting greater economic pressure [1] - Overall, the Eurozone economy remains on the edge of moderate expansion, with service sector performance offsetting ongoing manufacturing weakness, alleviating some concerns about a deep recession [1] Group 2 - The Euro to USD exchange rate is stabilizing above the simple moving average (SMA) support at around 1.1730, indicating a mild bullish trend [2] - The 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages are rising steadily below the short-term averages, aligning with limited demand for the USD [2] - Short-term momentum indicators show a neutral overall trend, with the relative strength index (RSI) slightly retreating to around 53 [2] - The Euro to USD is trading above all moving averages, with the 20-period simple moving average providing intraday support at approximately 1.1770 [2]

Group 1 - The current market is in an adjustment phase with a divergence breakthrough, indicating that the recent rebound has ended and a pullback is expected [1] - Historical trends suggest that after a significant upward movement, personal accounts often experience profit withdrawal, leading to a situation where new highs are rarely achieved before further declines occur [1] - Behavioral psychology concepts such as recency effect, loss aversion, availability heuristic, and confirmation bias play a role in market movements [1] Group 2 - Group psychology will ultimately reflect in momentum indicators, with signs of top divergence indicating an increase in retreating and cashing out funds [2] - To effectively track trends, it is essential to learn to identify changes in momentum and understand the overall market psychology [2] - Leading stocks, such as those in the computing power sector, are seen as consolidating and not showing signs of fatigue, suggesting that the market trend is not over [2] Group 3 - New categories that are rising against the trend, such as energy storage and lithium batteries, should be closely monitored [3] Group 4 - The market maintains a multi-mainline structure, reducing the need for excessive concern about overall market movements, allowing individual stock strategies to diverge from broader market trends [5]

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar has seen a slight decline, currently trading around 1.16, with a drop of 0.09% from the previous close of 1.1706 [1] - European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Kazaks indicated that the ECB has entered a new phase of monetary policy, shifting focus from active economic intervention to continuous monitoring of economic dynamics [1] - Kazaks noted that the current inflation rate is close to the 2% target, and recent economic data does not show significant deviation from the June quarterly forecast, suggesting no need for further rate cuts at this time [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the euro against the US dollar has shown limited progress, with the weekly chart indicating that buyers are looking for entry points on dips [2] - The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently at 1.1520, providing support for buying, despite losing upward momentum [2] - Momentum indicators have shown a shift but remain in positive territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 63, indicating no clear directional guidance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of momentum indicators in identifying market trends and potential investment opportunities, particularly focusing on the VAD and OVS indicators for different time frames [1][2]. Group 1: Medium-Term Momentum Indicators - The selection of medium-term momentum indicators should prioritize their divergence characteristics to effectively determine wave turning points [1]. - The VAD indicator, derived from Williams' accumulation/distribution line, integrates both price and volume factors, showcasing the relationship between price momentum divergence and volume-price divergence [1][2]. Group 2: Short-Term Momentum Indicators - A more reasonable short-term momentum indicator should consider the combination of volume and price, as trend traders emphasize the matching relationship between the two [2]. - The OVS indicator is defined as the product of price change and transaction amount, reflecting the monetary effect during trading [2]. - In the "Beast Momentum System," VAD, OVS, RSR, and RSLine are equally important, each representing core logic for different stages and cycles of momentum [2]. Group 3: Indicator Formulas - The OVS indicator formula includes components such as price efficiency ratio and daily price change, which are essential for calculating the indicator [2]. - The VAD indicator formula calculates the cumulative effect of price changes relative to the previous closing price, adjusted for transaction volume [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expectation of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates starting in September due to a weak labor market and reduced inflation risks [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - Nomura's economists predict a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, followed by additional cuts in December and March of the following year [1] - The median analyst expectation is also for a 25 basis point cut within the next three months, although there is disagreement among economists regarding the timing of these cuts [1] Group 2: Market Indicators - The current USD index is at 97.86, with a slight increase of 0.02% from an opening price of 97.80 [1] - The 20-period moving average (97.5513) and the 50-period moving average (97.7919) are converging, indicating short-term bullish sentiment, but the price has not effectively broken through the resistance at the 50-period moving average [1] - The RSI indicator is at 71.91, indicating an overbought condition, and a potential "divergence" pattern is forming, where the price reaches a new high while the RSI does not [1]

Group 1 - The overall bull market is still intact, with no major turning points anticipated, despite a potential short-term pullback in market momentum [1] - A significant number of stocks are experiencing a sharp decline, indicating a widespread market correction, which is typical during market downturns [1] - The emergence of new leaders in the market has been accompanied by excessive selling pressure, suggesting caution for those who have made profits [1] Group 2 - A more optimistic scenario suggests that the market could consolidate around the 200-day moving average on a 15-minute chart, allowing for profit-taking before continuing upward [3] - A more conservative expectation involves a larger pullback on a 60-minute chart, potentially requiring a decline of at least five candlesticks on a daily chart [4] - The market may experience a challenging period similar to previous downturns, but with proper preparation, it can be managed effectively [6] Group 3 - The construction of a 60-minute central pivot is likely, which would provide a stronger foundation for future upward movements [7] - Previous predictions regarding the ChiNext Index indicated a potential for significant upward movement following a breakout, reinforcing the current analysis [8]

Core Viewpoint - The gold price remains stable around $3327 per ounce as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches, with limited bullish potential for gold [1][2]. Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, with investors closely analyzing the wording of the statement and Chairman Powell's speech for clues on future rate cuts [4][5]. Technical Analysis - Despite a reduction in negative momentum, there is still a risk of further declines in gold prices. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) acts as a dynamic resistance at $3345 per ounce, while the 100-day SMA provides support at $3250 per ounce [6]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3301.90, $3287.30, and $3274.05 per ounce, while resistance levels are at $3345.00, $3361.80, and $3377.15 per ounce [8].

昨天因为继续缩量横盘，没什么好说的，无非就是15分钟级别顶背离之后的凸形拐点悬停区间，就好比把一块石头往上丢，一个抛物线的顶端，速度逐渐 减为零，几何呈现为弧形拐弯。 所以，择时投机的本质就是理解市场情绪，情绪即动量；反之，如果被市场情绪牵着鼻子走，就坠入饿道轮回，万劫不复。 我们继续等待10/20/40周期的情绪指标再次粘合，或者其中两条粘合，以及15分钟级别动量指标的底背离特征，综合判断下一次高胜率切入位置。 形态学上，上次已经讲过，这是基底进入右侧之后构造3C区域的阶段，3C构造完成以后，再次突破就是口袋支点（枢轴点），进入欧马体系操作空间。 更重要的是，对猛兽股轮廓侧写的把握，大盘指数日线级别逐渐进入第二阶段时，超级大牛股将越来越明显，但这个群体数量并不多，处于幂律分布最顶 端的区域，无论从动力学和形态学都必须是无暇完美的，例如上一轮牛市中天赐材料，体会一下基底从左侧进入右侧的过程： 复盘历史上的超级大牛股，是学习欧马体系的必修课。从形态学、动力学、基本面、产业锚、催化剂等各方面反复比较揣摩，以及和大盘情绪起伏之间的 关系，等等。 持续缩量是因为买卖双方的冲动和理性意愿都在减退。 今天上午一开始还是延 ...