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美联储降息预期降温,波折与反复
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 05:11
Group 1 - The report highlights that the expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has cooled, leading to market fluctuations and uncertainties [9][10][12] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first decline since Q1 2022, which may impact market sentiment [9] - The non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations with 177,000 new jobs added in April, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, indicating a mixed economic outlook [9] Group 2 - In the bond market, there is an expectation for macroeconomic data to be released soon, with a focus on holding bonds as yields may decline further [10][12] - The stock market is expected to experience short-term disturbances, but sectors with strong earnings performance, particularly high-dividend defensive sectors like banks and utilities, are likely to be favored [3][12] - The report suggests monitoring sectors influenced by national subsidies, such as consumer electronics and home appliances, as well as non-energy cyclical sectors like steel and non-ferrous metals [3][12] Group 3 - The report indicates that the market is currently in a cautious state, with a preference for defensive positions in both the bond and stock markets [15] - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance, with a decline in average daily trading volume to 1,103.9 billion yuan, reflecting a low market sentiment [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming economic data releases, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and China's CPI and PPI data [21]