中信建投证券 电子行业 庞佳军 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。逾300名权威学 者、公私募掌舵人、上市公司董事长、顶级基金经理、首席分析师齐聚上海，共同探讨中国资本市场的 未来机遇。同时，第六届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师评选结果隆重揭晓。 10位分析师荣获证券分析师·未来之星殊荣，所属机构及研究行业名单如下（排名不分先后）： 长江证券 新能源汽车与零部件行业 王子豪 广发证券 公用事业行业 姜涛 东方证券 电子行业 薛宏伟 国泰海通证券 策略研究 方奕 国金证券 宏观经济研究 杨佳妮 中泰证券 电子行业 杨旭 天风证券 银行业 刘杰 浙商证券 宏观经济研究 林成炜 华福证券 机器人及高端制造行业 戴永波 责任编辑：凌辰 ...

宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 企业利润率出现不寻常的下滑 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 28 日 证券研究报告 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 企业利润率出现不寻常的下滑。回顾历史来看，2020-2024 年，工业企业 在 1-10 月的营收利润率都较 1-9 月进一步提升。反观今年 1-10 月，工业 企业营收利润率出现了不同寻常的下滑。结合统计 ...

Group 1: High-end Manufacturing and Security - The defense industry is entering a new cycle driven by both domestic demand and external potential, focusing on information technology, intelligent equipment, and emerging fields like military trade and deep space economy [2] - The machinery sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment and technological empowerment, with a focus on robotics and autonomous driving, alongside a push for core technology breakthroughs [2] - The electric power and new energy sectors are witnessing a new growth cycle, with lithium battery storage demand surging and the photovoltaic market stabilizing [2] - The home appliance industry is focusing on policy subsidies, technological transformation, and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing rapid technological advancements in smart driving and hybrid technologies, with a focus on export opportunities and collaboration with tech companies [2] Group 2: Real Estate and Banking - The real estate market is stabilizing, with key cities expected to see price stabilization driven by household balance sheet recovery and supportive policies [3] - The banking sector is entering a new profit cycle, with stable interest margins supporting long-term profitability, and a focus on undervalued shares and quality city commercial banks [4] Group 3: Securities and Insurance - The securities industry is benefiting from wealth management trends, with a focus on stable earnings and international expansion as a long-term narrative [5] - The insurance sector is characterized by high elasticity, with investment-driven profit growth and a focus on regulatory compliance and risk management [6] Group 4: Construction and Chemicals - The construction industry is expected to stabilize with government debt management and new infrastructure projects, focusing on regional coordination and green development [10] - The chemical sector is entering a recovery phase, with a focus on high-quality enterprises and strategic investments in various chains [10][12] Group 5: Utilities and Environmental Protection - The utilities sector is seeing steady growth in electricity demand, with a focus on high-dividend investments in water and coal power [13] - The environmental protection sector is benefiting from policy adjustments and technological advancements, with a focus on improving profitability in water and waste management [16] Group 6: Capital Markets and Financial Innovation - The capital market is exploring new paths for empowering inclusive finance, focusing on small and micro-enterprise support and rural revitalization [21] - The green certificate market is expected to grow significantly, driven by policy support and increasing demand for renewable energy [22] Group 7: E-commerce and Retail - The retail sector is experiencing structural changes driven by AI, with a focus on rational competition and the globalization of Chinese brands [23] Group 8: Bonds and Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is expected to see continued growth, driven by demand for fixed income and equity market expectations [25] - The quantitative investment sector is gaining traction, with a focus on unique strategies and the development of fixed income products [27]

Core Viewpoint - The recent inclusion of lipid management in Shanghai's public health services reflects the efforts of international companies like Novartis to address chronic disease prevention and cardiovascular health in the city [1] Group 1: New Member Companies and Their Contributions - Six new member companies of the Shanghai Mayor's International Business Advisory Council include global giants such as Nike, Veolia, Vale, SK, Mizuho Financial Group, and Adidas, representing various sectors like semiconductors, finance, consumer goods, and mining [2] - Adidas has become the largest single-country market for the company in China, with a revenue of €3.459 billion in the previous year, marking a 10.3% year-on-year growth [2] - Veolia's project in Pudong supplies nearly 2 million cubic meters of drinking water daily to 4.3 million residents [2] - Vale's iron ore shipments to China reached approximately 140 million tons in the first three quarters of this year, accounting for 62% of the company's global iron ore sales during the same period [2] Group 2: Alignment of Corporate Goals with Shanghai's Development - Companies believe there is significant potential in the Chinese market, leading to the establishment of a dedicated area for energy transition metals at this year's China International Import Expo [3] - The alignment between Shanghai's development direction and corporate goals is emphasized, with companies like Veolia developing smart water management platforms tailored to local needs [3] Group 3: Engagement and Contributions of New Members - New members are expected to submit consulting reports starting from their second year, but Adidas has already begun contributing by suggesting standardized guidelines for sports event management in Shanghai [4] - Companies are leveraging their global presence to gather insights and propose actionable recommendations for Shanghai's development, with Mizuho Bank focusing on sustainable development and demographic challenges [4] Group 4: Corporate Growth and Interaction with Shanghai - Companies are looking to achieve "second growth" in Shanghai, with Adidas planning to relocate its Greater China headquarters and actively participate in local events [5] - Veolia aims to integrate advanced technologies in water, waste, and energy management to help Chinese industrial parks reduce carbon emissions by 15% to 30% [5] - Mizuho Bank is expanding its operations in China, having received approval to establish the first wholly-owned Japanese securities company in the country, aiming to create a foundation for future growth [5] - The interaction between Shanghai and member companies is increasing, with regular events organized to facilitate communication and collaboration [5]

周四三大指数高开低走，在缺少新的短期主线刺激的情况下，市场连续三天冲高回落。红利板块受益于 避险情绪，近日来资金关注度有所提升。截至11月27日，"两市红利标杆"中证红利ETF（515080）连续 五日累计吸金4.19亿，显示资金加大高股息资产配置。 展望后市，财信证券指出，短期或仍为偏震荡格局，市场当前具备较强韧性，但风格轮动加快，缺乏明 显主线；长期来看，在年末重要会议政策预期支撑、全球流动性宽松环境等因素支撑下，权益市场慢牛 预期仍较为稳固。 策略来看，该机构认为，兼具防御和成长的哑铃策略或占优。一方面，当前保险、年金等机构仓位较 低，可提前关注年末配置行情下的底仓转债机会，如银行、公用事业等大盘、高评级标的，同时此类品 种兼具红利属性；另一方面，关注科技、反内卷等板块中的低溢价率优质标的，增强组合弹性。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 资料显示，中证红利ETF（515080）上市以来已连续14次分红，频率相对稳定、持续、可预期。分析指 出，分批买入该类红利类ETF，可以适当规避择时难题，分红再投资还能有机会放大复利效应。 ...

宏观经济点评 2025 年 11 月 27 日 利润增速转负，新质生产力效益增势向好 宏观研究团队 ——兼评 10 月企业利润数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524020002 1、10 月名义库存同比回升 0.9 个百分点至 3.7%、连续 2 个月库存增加，实际库 存同比小幅提高 0.7 个百分点至 5.8%。考虑到 10 月量能指标（工增、营收）均 收缩，企业转向"主动补库存"的信号仍较微弱，有待扩内需政策加码助推库存 周期切换。 2、总体来看，低基数效应消退后 Q4 工企利润将持续承压，但好的方面在于新 质生产力效益增势向好，反内卷与非反内卷行业的利润收敛趋势或未改变。往后 看，需关注增量财政（政策性金融工具、专项债限额空间等）形成实物工作量的 进度与效果，以及中美经贸关系边际改善带来的利润修复。 风险提示：政策变化超预期；地缘政治反复超预期；美国经济超预期衰退。 事件：2025 年 1-10 月全国规上工企利润累计同比 1.9%，前值 3.2%；营业收入 累计同比 1.8%，前值 2.4%。 低基数效应 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 企业盈利的修复预期还在吗 ——1-10 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 10 月工业企业利润同比增速由正转负至-5.5%，若从两年复合增速来看，10 月利润同比增速回 落至-7.8%，已连续三个月负增长，反映出即便剔除基数的扰动，当前利润同比的回落压力也持 续存在。在政策发力较为谨慎的环境下，年内企业经营压力扩散的风险值得进一步关注。而展 望中长期，内需方面，政策留力为明年稳增长做准备，明年两会前后仍有框架性内需政策落地 的可能性，外需方面，美联储降息也有望带动全球工业周期迎来复苏；内外需同时发力下，明 年上半年企业盈利的持续修复的主线仍有较强的逻辑支撑。 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1 [Table_Title 企业盈利的修复预期还在吗 2] ——1-10 月工业企业利润点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 11 月 27 日，国 ...

Group 1 - Major Wall Street banks have released their outlooks for the S&P 500 index for the end of 2026, with a general consensus that the index will continue to rise due to the ongoing AI investment wave, a shift to loose monetary policy, and expanding profit growth [1][2][8] - HSBC sets a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, expecting a 12% growth in earnings per share for index constituents, driven by macroeconomic stability and the AI investment boom [2][3] - Societe Generale predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7300 points in 2026, with a potential range reflecting significant market volatility due to monetary policy uncertainty [4] Group 2 - Barclays raises its target for the S&P 500 to 7400 points, citing strong performance from large tech stocks and improving monetary and fiscal conditions, while warning of pressure on non-tech sectors due to rising inflation and unemployment [5][6] - UBS forecasts a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500, driven by strong corporate earnings growth of 14.4% in 2026, despite concerns over valuation risks related to AI stocks [8] - Morgan Stanley anticipates the S&P 500 will rise to 7800 points, supported by Fed rate cuts and efficiency gains from AI technology [11] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank presents the most optimistic outlook, setting a target of 8000 points for the S&P 500, driven by expected earnings growth of 14% and a broader market rally beyond the largest tech companies [12] - Morgan Stanley's strategy team emphasizes that the recent market sell-off is nearing its end, viewing it as an opportunity to position for a bullish 2026 [11] - JPMorgan highlights the K-shaped economic recovery, indicating that while large enterprises benefit from AI, the disparity in consumer confidence and spending may lead to market volatility [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) is actively promoting the development of the green and ESG bond market to support the green transformation of real enterprises and enhance the effectiveness of financing for the real economy [1][3]. Group 1: Market Development and Achievements - As of October 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of green bonds (including ABS) on the SSE has approached 900 billion yuan, with low-carbon transition bonds exceeding 80 billion yuan since their launch in 2022 [1]. - The market structure of SSE's green and low-carbon transition bonds is characterized by a diversified maturity profile, primarily mid-term, with issuers spanning key industries such as industrial, public utilities, and finance [1][4]. Group 2: Financing Mechanisms and Benefits - The financing mechanisms for green bonds and low-carbon transition bonds on the SSE are considered convenient, effectively meeting companies' financing needs in related fields [3]. - The SSE allows funds raised from green bonds to replace self-funded expenditures on green projects incurred in the previous 12 months, providing greater autonomy in choosing issuance timing and reducing financing costs [3]. Group 3: Secondary Market Innovations - The SSE has lowered the threshold for green bonds to be included as benchmark market-making securities, enhancing liquidity and pricing efficiency in the secondary market [4]. - The introduction of a science and technology innovation bond ETF has effectively reduced financing costs and could further stimulate market activity if similar products are launched in the green bond market [4]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - Participants at the symposium emphasized the importance of enhancing the flexibility of fund usage and management, as well as optimizing incentive policies to expand the depth and breadth of the green bond market [6]. - There is a call for a richer supply of green bonds to broaden investment choices, with expectations for more enterprises to issue green bonds on the SSE [6]. Group 5: Standards and Training - The understanding and application of green bond standards are becoming focal points, with suggestions for increased industry training and communication to enhance market participants' capabilities [7]. - Future innovations in bonds are encouraged to include areas such as biodiversity, climate adaptation, and carbon benefits to promote the development of the green finance system [7].

从"量"、"价"角度看，1-10 月工业生产活动维持活跃，但价格端表 现仍较弱势。一方面，1-10 月工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，增速较前三季 度微幅下滑 0.1 个百分点，生产端仍能对当期工业企业盈利形成支撑。 另一方面，1-10 月 PPI、生产资料 PPI 同比增速仍为负，分别下降 2.7% 和 3.2%，但降幅均较 9 月微幅收窄 0.1 个百分点，工业品出厂价格表现 仍对工业企业盈利有所掣肘。 原材料价格仍是当前工业企业盈利能力的主要拖累。1-10 月生产资料 PPI 同比降幅仍较明显。在此前深度报告《我们如何理解国内"低通 胀"？》中，我们指出，国内工业品价格弱势受到国际大宗商品价格震 荡、国内地产投资不振等因素的共同影响，从 10 月的状况看： 首先，10 月煤炭开采和洗选业的进口价格指数（环比）为 73.7，低于 100 的上月基线水平，环比延续负增长，煤炭进口价格持续不振，1-10 月煤炭开采及洗选业对工业企业利润总额同比增速的负贡献为 4.2 个百 分点。 其次，地产投资仍对我国固定资产投资表现有所拖累，1-10 月累计同比 下降 14.7%，拖累当期固投增速 3.0 个百分点，仍是需求 ...