债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 压力测试下转债具备韧性 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 转债事件点评 债 券 本报告导读： 预计未来一到两周，转债市场预计将延续震荡格局，为年末行情夯实基础。建议利 用市场震荡进行布局，耐心等待"春季躁动"行情的展开。 投资要点： | | 021-38038201 | | --- | --- | | | guyige@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 REIT 打新策略数据跟踪 2025.10.29 买卖国债如何理解：从"长"计议 2025.10.28 把握反击窗口期 2025.10.26 不惧扰动，保持定力 2025.10.20 存款流向非银为何减速——9 月金融数据点评 2025.10.16 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研 究 事 件 点 评 [Table_Summary] 过去一周（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日），A 股市场经历了全线深度调 整，转债相对具备韧性。此次调整主要受内外因素交织影响。外部 而言，市 ...

【振幅大】 【主力资金】 -主力资金今日净流入国防军工、传媒、商贸零售、建筑装饰、公用事业、银行等板块，净流出电子、 计算机、电力设备、基础化工、通信、医药生物等板块； -蓝色光标、省广集团、航天发展、数据港、美的集团资金净流入规模居前，分别净流入13.44亿元、 7.38亿元、4.46亿元、3.97亿元、3.47亿元； -新易盛、中际旭创、工业富联、榕基软件、易点天下资金净流出规模居前，分别净流出11.77亿元、 11.26亿元、8.83亿元、8.78亿元、8.35亿元。 (本文来自第一财经) -今日A股共有13只个股振幅超过20%； -美登科技、江龙船艇、久之洋等个股振幅居前； 【换手率高】 -今日A股共有7只个股换手率超过40%； -榕基软件、南方路机、江龙船艇等个股换手率居前； ...

南向资金对港股通标的股的整体持股比例为19.38%，242只个股南向资金持股比例超20%。 互联互通机制下，内地投资者成为港股市场的重要参与者。证券时报•数据宝统计显示，截至11月21 日，港股通标的股中，南向资金合计持有4900.47亿股，占标的股总股本的比例达19.38%，合计持股市 值60614.05亿港元，占标的股总市值的比例为14.66%。 具体到单只标的股来看，南向资金持股量占总股本比例20%以上的有242只，持股比例在10%~20%的有 131只，持股比例在5%~10%的有91只，1%~5%的有84只，持股比例低于1%的为21只。南向资金持股比 例最高的是中国电信，最新持有100.45亿股，占港股已发行股份的比例为72.38%，其次是绿色动力环 保、大众公用，持股占比分别为69.48%、69.45%。 从特征来看，南向资金高比例持有的个股，多数为AH概念股，统计显示，南向资金持股超20%的个股 中，AH股共有129只，占比为53.31%；持有比例在10%~20%的个股中，AH股占比为19.08%。 以港交所行业分类进行统计，南向资金持股比例超20%的个股主要集中在医疗保健业、工业、金融业等 行业 ...

全球市场同样面临压力，恒生指数周跌5.09%，标普500跌1.95%，纳斯达克跌2.74%，主要受到美联储 降息预期降温、美股AI叙事动摇等因素影响。 不过值得关注的是，周末美联储官员开始释放鸽派信号，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯（美联储三号人物）公 开表示"仍有降息空间"，这一表态或将缓解海外流动性担忧，为下周全球风险偏好的修复提供支撑。 本周全球资本市场经历了一场剧烈的风险资产抛售潮，A股市场未能独善其身。截至周五收盘，上证指 数周跌幅达3.90%，深证成指下跌5.13%，创业板指跌幅更高达6.15%，三大指数均创下阶段性新低。 全周市场呈现典型的"放量下跌"特征，特别是在周五，全市场成交额显著放大至1.98万亿元（较周四放 量近2600亿元），显示恐慌盘正在加速出逃。个股层面更是惨不忍睹，超过5000只个股下跌，近百只个 股跌停，市场情绪指标已降至冰点区间。 从板块表现来看，防御性板块相对抗跌，船舶制造、文化传媒、农业种植等主题板块逆势活跃；而前期 热门赛道则集体重挫，能源金属、电池、光伏设备等板块跌幅居前，这清晰地反映出资金正在从高估值 成长赛道向低估值防御板块进行切换。 同时需要密切关注美联储政策动向与全球 ...

新华财经上海11月22日电 2025年已接近尾声，全球大类资产配置有何趋势，A股市场哪些板块更具投资价值，跨年行情又会呈现出哪些新的特征？围绕资产 配置与股市行情，在近期举行的第十四届"沪上金融家"的颁奖活动上，来自九方智投的多位业界投资专家接受了新华财经采访。他们表示，增配人民币资产 或已成为全球资产配置的重要趋势，得益于中国经济稳健复苏和人工智能（AI）等科技创新的支撑，A股市场有望继续上行，跨年行情值得期待，新能源、 消费等板块具备投资价值。 人民币资产受全球资本配置青睐 今年以来，全球经济复苏分化、美国关税政策扰动、美联储降息博弈、美股AI泡沫讨论持续、中国资产重估叙事等多重因素相互交织，驱动着各类资产估 值重构与资金流向调整。全球资本正重新评估不同区域资产的风险收益比，并调整相关资产配置。 A股有望继续向上拓展空间 从今年全球大类资产配置来看，两条核心主线已清晰显现。九方智投首席投顾黄伟分析认为，第一条主线是避险，黄金等贵金属价格大幅上涨，成为全球资 金的重要选择，各国央行持续增持黄金，进一步印证了市场避险需求旺盛。第二条主线是风险资产的"洼地效应"，尽管全球股票市场流动性依然充裕，但美 债收益率上 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - UGI Corporation achieved record-adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.32, exceeding the revised guidance range of $3.00 to $3.15, driven by strong operational performance and tax benefits [4][17] - Free cash flow generated was approximately $530 million, which included cash from asset sales [4][22] - Total shareholder return for the year was 42%, reflecting strong operational strategy [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - AmeriGas reported EBIT of $166 million, a 17% increase year-over-year, with a 30% reduction in recordable incidents enhancing safety [17][22] - The regulated utilities segment achieved record EBIT of $403 million, up $3 million from the previous year, supported by a 10% increase in core market volumes [18] - Midstream and Marketing segment EBIT was $293 million, down $20 million due to lower margins and reduced income from equity method investments [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - UGI International reported EBIT of $314 million, a decrease of $9 million from the prior year, attributed to lower margins and reduced LPG volumes [19][21] - LPG volumes declined by 4% due to structural conservation and customer conversions to natural gas, partially offset by colder weather [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational excellence and portfolio optimization, with a long-term EPS growth target of 5%-7% [5][25] - Investments of approximately $900 million were deployed, primarily in natural gas businesses, to enhance infrastructure and system reliability [7][23] - AmeriGas is undergoing a transformation to improve customer service and operational efficiency, with a focus on safety and financial discipline [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth trajectory, anticipating a 5%-7% increase in reportable segment EBIT year-over-year [24][25] - The company expects to maintain strong operational performance despite anticipated higher interest expenses and normalization of the effective tax rate [24][25] - Future capital investments are projected between $4.5 billion and $4.9 billion to support strategic growth opportunities [25][26] Other Important Information - The company is committed to maintaining a leverage ratio at or below 3.75x for UGI Corporation and 4.0x for AmeriGas to ensure financial flexibility [26] - The operational and financial improvements at AmeriGas are expected to drive organic growth in the coming years [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for midstream and LPG businesses - Management expects low double-digit growth across all business lines over the planning horizon, including midstream and LPG [34][35] Question: Update on NDAs and data center activity - There is significant ongoing activity with over 50 NDAs signed, indicating strong interest in growth opportunities in Pennsylvania [38] Question: Comments on potential electric utility market - The company continuously evaluates its portfolio for optimization opportunities but did not provide specific comments on the electric utility [40] Question: AmeriGas leverage targets - AmeriGas aims to achieve a leverage ratio below 4.5, driven by EBIT growth and deleveraging efforts [50][51] Question: Consistency of tax credits - Management confirmed that there will be no ongoing one-time tax credit items affecting future forecasts, leading to a normalized run rate [54] Question: CapEx and shareholder returns - Utility CapEx is expected to remain consistent or slightly increase, with a commitment to dividends in the future [56][57]

Core Insights - The article highlights a trend of decreasing shareholder accounts among 149 companies, indicating a concentration of shares, with some companies experiencing a decline for over three consecutive periods [1][2] Group 1: Shareholder Account Trends - 20 companies have reported a continuous decrease in shareholder accounts for more than three periods, with the most significant decline being 9 periods for companies like Yihau New Materials and Shuangfei Group [1] - Yihau New Materials has the latest shareholder count of 15,208, reflecting a cumulative decrease of 34.46%, while Shuangfei Group has 18,803 shareholders, with a cumulative decline of 20.52% [1] - Other companies with notable declines include Huangsanghuan, Nanjing Energy, and XinNing Logistics, indicating a broader trend of decreasing shareholder numbers [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Among the companies with declining shareholder accounts, 5 have seen their stock prices rise, while 15 have experienced declines, with notable increases for Shuanghui Development (9.67%), George White (4.56%), and Nanjing Energy (2.11%) [2] - 25% of the companies that have seen a decrease in shareholder accounts outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with Shuanghui Development, George White, and Nanjing Energy showing relative returns of 11.26%, 5.31%, and 3.34% respectively [2] Group 3: Industry and Institutional Activity - The industries with the highest concentration of companies experiencing declining shareholder accounts include food and beverage, public utilities, and automotive, with 3, 3, and 2 companies respectively [2] - In terms of institutional interest, 5 companies with declining shareholder accounts were surveyed by institutions in the past month, with Shuanghui Development and Changhua Group being the most frequently researched [2] - The companies with the highest number of institutional participants in research include Xinhan New Materials (24), New Dairy (22), and Shuanghui Development (13) [2]

今天打开行情软件，估计不少朋友都倒吸一口凉气吧？沪指直接低开低走失守3900点，跌了2.45%，深证成指和创业板指跌得更狠，全市场超5000只个股飘 绿，手里的票要么绿油油要么原地踏步，是不是越看越慌，甚至想点开卖出键割肉离场？ 作为跑了20年财经的老记者，也是盯着中长线做投资的老兵，帮主见过太多这样的恐慌时刻。从2008年的1664点到2018年的2440点，每次市场跌得大家直 呼"扛不住"的时候，其实都是情绪在主导，而非基本面真的塌了。今天这波下跌也一样，前期涨得火的电池、能源金属、硅能源这些赛道股，不少资金赚了 钱想年末落袋为安，加上3900点这个心理关口一破，杠杆资金和止损盘集中出逃，越卖越跌形成了恶性循环，就像菜市场没人抢菜，商贩只能降价甩卖，不 管菜品好坏先清仓再说。 下周操作，帮主给中长线朋友三个实在建议。第一，绝对别割肉，尤其是手里拿着消费、金融、优质制造龙头的朋友，现在割肉就是把便宜筹码在地板上送 给别人，咱们做中长线图的是稳，不是跟着短期波动追涨杀跌。第二，分批布局，重点关注两类标的：一类是高股息的银行、公用事业股，它们分红稳定， 就像投资里的"压舱石"，现在股息率比不少理财还高；另一类是 ...

从地域覆盖来看，无论是东部发达地区，还是中西部地区，各地税务机关均加强了税收监管和稽查力 度。值得注意的是，还有部分企业的补税来源于境外税务当局的要求，如因当地税务局对投资税收津贴 条件的不同理解而产生的补税。 综合观察，当前上市公司补税潮呈现出范围广、金额大、原因复杂的特点，暴露出上市公司在税务合规 和内部控制方面存在的普遍问题。税收征管技术的革新推动了补税潮的涌现，金税四期系统通过大数 据、人工智能等先进技术，实现了对企业经营全流程的多维度监控，大幅提升了税务机关发现涉税风险 的能力。系统能够精准识别发票异常、关联交易定价不合理、等多种风险点，并及时向企业推送风险提 醒。 近期，A股 上市公司出现一股补缴税款的浪潮，截至目前,已有超过60 家上市公司 相继发布 税务补缴公 告，主要涉及2021至2024年度补税事项，累计补税及滞纳金金额 超28亿元。这一现象引发了市场对上 市公司税务 合规性、内部控制质量及财务透明度的广泛关注。 这些企业中，多数是通过税局大数据检查启动的企业自查。涉及的行业包括 医药15 家、化工 11 家、半 导体12 家、公用事业与环保 8 家、消费零售 10 家、制造与建筑 7 家 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Xin'ao Co., Ltd. reached a historical high, increasing by 2.06% to 21.28 yuan, with a trading volume of 6.9788 million shares and a transaction amount of 147 million yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 0.23% [1] - The latest total market capitalization of Xin'ao Co., Ltd. in A-shares is 65.906 billion yuan, while the circulating market capitalization is not specified [1] - In the public utility sector, the overall decline is 1.32%, with four stocks, including Xin'ao Co., Ltd., showing an increase, with the top gainers being Dazhong Public Utility and Changjiang Electric Power, rising by 3.25% and 2% respectively [1] Group 2 - As of November 20, the margin balance for Xin'ao Co., Ltd. is 197 million yuan, with a financing balance of 195 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 15.3722 million yuan over the past ten days, a decline of 7.29% [1] - The company's Q3 report indicates that for the first three quarters, it achieved operating revenue of 95.893 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.92%, and a net profit of 3.426 billion yuan, down 1.87% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 1.1100 yuan and a weighted average return on equity of 14.0% [1]