2月底，伯克希尔哈撒韦正式发布2024年年度报告及巴菲特年度股东信。芒格书院通过DeepSeek精译了这份奥马哈来信的全文。 01 我们以股东希望的方式传递信息 致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东： 这封致股东信是伯克希尔年报的重要组成部分。作为上市公司，我们有义务定期向您披露大量具体事实和数据。 但"年报"二字承载着更重的责任——除了法定披露事项，我们认为还应当向您阐述所投资产的本质与我们的投资理念。我们的沟通准则始终如一：若角色 互换（即您执掌伯克希尔，而我与家族作为被动投资者将毕生积蓄托付于您），您会希望以何种方式获得信息，我们便以何种方式传递信息。 这种理念促使我们每年如实报告您通过伯克希尔股权间接持有的各家企业的兴衰起落。不过当谈及具体子公司的问题时，我们始终恪守六十年前汤姆·墨 菲传授的黄金法则："指名道姓赞其优，分门别类析其弊。" 02 错的——是的，伯克希尔也会犯错 有时，我在评估为伯克希尔购买的企业的未来经济前景时犯了错误——每一次都是资本配置失误。这种情况既发生在对可交易股票的判断上——我们将这 些股票视为企业的部分所有权——也发生在对公司的100%收购上。 在其他时候，我在评估伯克希尔所聘用的经 ...

证券之星消息，11月28日，国企改革（399974）指数报收于1841.64点，涨0.22%，成交863.26亿元，换 手率0.48%。当日该指数成份股中，上涨的有63家，东方电气以5.56%的涨幅领涨，下跌的有33家，招商 蛇口以2.63%的跌幅领跌。 资金流向方面，国企改革（399974）指数成份股当日主力资金净流出合计7.88亿元，游资资金净流入合 计1998.58万元，散户资金净流入合计7.68亿元。成份股资金流向详情见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600036 招商银行 | | 3.25 Z | 15.29% | -3.61 Z | -16.97% | 3588.10万 | 1.69% | | 600118 | 中国卫星 | 1.53 Z | 6.36% | -6095.63万 | -2.54% | -9186.52万 | -3.82% | | 668109 | 紫金矿业 | 1. ...

中信建投证券 电子行业 庞佳军 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。逾300名权威学 者、公私募掌舵人、上市公司董事长、顶级基金经理、首席分析师齐聚上海，共同探讨中国资本市场的 未来机遇。同时，第六届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师评选结果隆重揭晓。 10位分析师荣获证券分析师·未来之星殊荣，所属机构及研究行业名单如下（排名不分先后）： 长江证券 新能源汽车与零部件行业 王子豪 广发证券 公用事业行业 姜涛 东方证券 电子行业 薛宏伟 国泰海通证券 策略研究 方奕 国金证券 宏观经济研究 杨佳妮 中泰证券 电子行业 杨旭 天风证券 银行业 刘杰 浙商证券 宏观经济研究 林成炜 华福证券 机器人及高端制造行业 戴永波 责任编辑：凌辰 ...

宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 企业利润率出现不寻常的下滑 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 28 日 证券研究报告 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 企业利润率出现不寻常的下滑。回顾历史来看，2020-2024 年，工业企业 在 1-10 月的营收利润率都较 1-9 月进一步提升。反观今年 1-10 月，工业 企业营收利润率出现了不同寻常的下滑。结合统计 ...

Group 1: High-end Manufacturing and Security - The defense industry is entering a new cycle driven by both domestic demand and external potential, focusing on information technology, intelligent equipment, and emerging fields like military trade and deep space economy [2] - The machinery sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment and technological empowerment, with a focus on robotics and autonomous driving, alongside a push for core technology breakthroughs [2] - The electric power and new energy sectors are witnessing a new growth cycle, with lithium battery storage demand surging and the photovoltaic market stabilizing [2] - The home appliance industry is focusing on policy subsidies, technological transformation, and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing rapid technological advancements in smart driving and hybrid technologies, with a focus on export opportunities and collaboration with tech companies [2] Group 2: Real Estate and Banking - The real estate market is stabilizing, with key cities expected to see price stabilization driven by household balance sheet recovery and supportive policies [3] - The banking sector is entering a new profit cycle, with stable interest margins supporting long-term profitability, and a focus on undervalued shares and quality city commercial banks [4] Group 3: Securities and Insurance - The securities industry is benefiting from wealth management trends, with a focus on stable earnings and international expansion as a long-term narrative [5] - The insurance sector is characterized by high elasticity, with investment-driven profit growth and a focus on regulatory compliance and risk management [6] Group 4: Construction and Chemicals - The construction industry is expected to stabilize with government debt management and new infrastructure projects, focusing on regional coordination and green development [10] - The chemical sector is entering a recovery phase, with a focus on high-quality enterprises and strategic investments in various chains [10][12] Group 5: Utilities and Environmental Protection - The utilities sector is seeing steady growth in electricity demand, with a focus on high-dividend investments in water and coal power [13] - The environmental protection sector is benefiting from policy adjustments and technological advancements, with a focus on improving profitability in water and waste management [16] Group 6: Capital Markets and Financial Innovation - The capital market is exploring new paths for empowering inclusive finance, focusing on small and micro-enterprise support and rural revitalization [21] - The green certificate market is expected to grow significantly, driven by policy support and increasing demand for renewable energy [22] Group 7: E-commerce and Retail - The retail sector is experiencing structural changes driven by AI, with a focus on rational competition and the globalization of Chinese brands [23] Group 8: Bonds and Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is expected to see continued growth, driven by demand for fixed income and equity market expectations [25] - The quantitative investment sector is gaining traction, with a focus on unique strategies and the development of fixed income products [27]

Core Viewpoint - The recent inclusion of lipid management in Shanghai's public health services reflects the efforts of international companies like Novartis to address chronic disease prevention and cardiovascular health in the city [1] Group 1: New Member Companies and Their Contributions - Six new member companies of the Shanghai Mayor's International Business Advisory Council include global giants such as Nike, Veolia, Vale, SK, Mizuho Financial Group, and Adidas, representing various sectors like semiconductors, finance, consumer goods, and mining [2] - Adidas has become the largest single-country market for the company in China, with a revenue of €3.459 billion in the previous year, marking a 10.3% year-on-year growth [2] - Veolia's project in Pudong supplies nearly 2 million cubic meters of drinking water daily to 4.3 million residents [2] - Vale's iron ore shipments to China reached approximately 140 million tons in the first three quarters of this year, accounting for 62% of the company's global iron ore sales during the same period [2] Group 2: Alignment of Corporate Goals with Shanghai's Development - Companies believe there is significant potential in the Chinese market, leading to the establishment of a dedicated area for energy transition metals at this year's China International Import Expo [3] - The alignment between Shanghai's development direction and corporate goals is emphasized, with companies like Veolia developing smart water management platforms tailored to local needs [3] Group 3: Engagement and Contributions of New Members - New members are expected to submit consulting reports starting from their second year, but Adidas has already begun contributing by suggesting standardized guidelines for sports event management in Shanghai [4] - Companies are leveraging their global presence to gather insights and propose actionable recommendations for Shanghai's development, with Mizuho Bank focusing on sustainable development and demographic challenges [4] Group 4: Corporate Growth and Interaction with Shanghai - Companies are looking to achieve "second growth" in Shanghai, with Adidas planning to relocate its Greater China headquarters and actively participate in local events [5] - Veolia aims to integrate advanced technologies in water, waste, and energy management to help Chinese industrial parks reduce carbon emissions by 15% to 30% [5] - Mizuho Bank is expanding its operations in China, having received approval to establish the first wholly-owned Japanese securities company in the country, aiming to create a foundation for future growth [5] - The interaction between Shanghai and member companies is increasing, with regular events organized to facilitate communication and collaboration [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market is experiencing a pullback after three days of gains, primarily due to a lack of new short-term catalysts, while the dividend sector is gaining attention amid risk-averse sentiment [1][3] - The CSI Dividend ETF (515080) has attracted a total of 419 million yuan over five consecutive days, reflecting increased capital allocation towards high-dividend assets [1] - The CSI Dividend ETF has maintained a stable and predictable dividend distribution, having distributed dividends 14 times since its listing, suggesting that systematic investment in such ETFs can mitigate timing challenges and enhance compounding effects through reinvestment [3] Group 2 - Financial analysts predict a short-term market characterized by volatility, with strong resilience but a lack of clear leading sectors; however, long-term expectations for a slow bull market remain solid due to supportive policy expectations and a globally loose liquidity environment [3] - The recommended investment strategy involves a "barbell strategy" that balances defensive and growth-oriented investments, focusing on sectors like insurance and utilities for stable returns while also identifying quality stocks in technology and anti-involution sectors to enhance portfolio flexibility [3]

宏观经济点评 2025 年 11 月 27 日 利润增速转负，新质生产力效益增势向好 宏观研究团队 ——兼评 10 月企业利润数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524020002 1、10 月名义库存同比回升 0.9 个百分点至 3.7%、连续 2 个月库存增加，实际库 存同比小幅提高 0.7 个百分点至 5.8%。考虑到 10 月量能指标（工增、营收）均 收缩，企业转向"主动补库存"的信号仍较微弱，有待扩内需政策加码助推库存 周期切换。 2、总体来看，低基数效应消退后 Q4 工企利润将持续承压，但好的方面在于新 质生产力效益增势向好，反内卷与非反内卷行业的利润收敛趋势或未改变。往后 看，需关注增量财政（政策性金融工具、专项债限额空间等）形成实物工作量的 进度与效果，以及中美经贸关系边际改善带来的利润修复。 风险提示：政策变化超预期；地缘政治反复超预期；美国经济超预期衰退。 事件：2025 年 1-10 月全国规上工企利润累计同比 1.9%，前值 3.2%；营业收入 累计同比 1.8%，前值 2.4%。 低基数效应 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned negative at -5.5%, marking three consecutive months of negative growth[3] - The revenue growth rate also turned negative at -3.3% in October, indicating a significant decline in both profit and revenue[5] - The two-year compound growth rate for profits fell to -7.8%, reflecting ongoing pressure on profit recovery despite base effects being excluded[3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Mining sector profits decreased by 12.0%, while manufacturing profits fell by 9.2% in October[6] - State-owned enterprises saw profit growth slow to 3.6% in October, down from previous high growth rates[6] - The computer electronics and automotive sectors were among the top contributors to profit growth, collectively adding 2.6 percentage points to overall profits[6] Group 3: Inventory and Turnover Issues - By the end of October, the nominal growth rate of industrial product inventories rose to 3.7%, indicating increased inventory pressure[6] - The inventory turnover days increased to 20.4 days, and accounts receivable turnover days rose to 69.8 days, highlighting growing turnover pressures[6] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is potential for profit recovery in the first half of next year, supported by anticipated domestic demand policies and a possible global industrial cycle recovery due to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts[3] - The government is expected to implement framework policies to stabilize growth ahead of the upcoming Two Sessions[3]

Group 1 - Major Wall Street banks have released their outlooks for the S&P 500 index for the end of 2026, with a general consensus that the index will continue to rise due to the ongoing AI investment wave, a shift to loose monetary policy, and expanding profit growth [1][2][8] - HSBC sets a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, expecting a 12% growth in earnings per share for index constituents, driven by macroeconomic stability and the AI investment boom [2][3] - Societe Generale predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7300 points in 2026, with a potential range reflecting significant market volatility due to monetary policy uncertainty [4] Group 2 - Barclays raises its target for the S&P 500 to 7400 points, citing strong performance from large tech stocks and improving monetary and fiscal conditions, while warning of pressure on non-tech sectors due to rising inflation and unemployment [5][6] - UBS forecasts a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500, driven by strong corporate earnings growth of 14.4% in 2026, despite concerns over valuation risks related to AI stocks [8] - Morgan Stanley anticipates the S&P 500 will rise to 7800 points, supported by Fed rate cuts and efficiency gains from AI technology [11] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank presents the most optimistic outlook, setting a target of 8000 points for the S&P 500, driven by expected earnings growth of 14% and a broader market rally beyond the largest tech companies [12] - Morgan Stanley's strategy team emphasizes that the recent market sell-off is nearing its end, viewing it as an opportunity to position for a bullish 2026 [11] - JPMorgan highlights the K-shaped economic recovery, indicating that while large enterprises benefit from AI, the disparity in consumer confidence and spending may lead to market volatility [10]