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特朗普威胁解雇鲍威尔未果,美联储罕见内讧,9月降息预期骤降
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 11:10
Core Viewpoint - The recent dissent within the Federal Reserve marks a significant shift in its traditionally consensus-driven decision-making process, influenced by external pressures such as President Trump's policies and rhetoric [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - On July 30, two Federal Reserve rate setters, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, voted against the majority to maintain interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5%, proposing a 0.25 percentage point cut instead, indicating a rare occurrence of "dual dissent" within the board [3]. - Waller and Bowman had previously expressed their views advocating for rate cuts, reflecting differing interpretations of the current economic conditions, particularly regarding labor market stability [5][6]. - Powell acknowledged the internal disagreements as stemming from noble intentions and polite discussions, emphasizing the thoughtful nature of the rate policy despite external noise [6]. Group 2: Economic Context and Market Reactions - Trump's administration has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve, with considerations of dismissing Powell, although recent visits to the Fed did not lead to significant market fluctuations [8]. - Following the July 30 meeting, investor confidence in Powell's judgment increased, despite the dissent, as he defended a cautious approach to interest rates, which led to a slight rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a drop in the stock market [8]. - Expectations for the Fed's next meeting in September shifted, with the likelihood of a rate cut dropping from two-thirds to less than half after Powell's remarks, highlighting market uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [9].