尽管美联储在国际经济舞台上占据着非常重要的地位，且其决策过程通常表现得颇为沉稳，但最近的情势有所改变。与其他中央银行的货币政策决策者往往 会出现意见分歧不同，美联储的政策制定者们一般都趋向于共识。然而，随着唐纳德·特朗普总统对美联储加大了攻击力度，以及他实施的关税政策开始对 美国经济施加压力，这种一贯的平静局面正慢慢被打破。 在7月30日的会议上，两个美联储利率制定者，克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼，投票反对大多数同事维持利率在4.25%到4.5%不变的决定，他们提议将利率 下调0.25个百分点。这一情况标志着美联储理事会理事30多年来首次出现"双重异议"的罕见现象，让外界开始重新审视美联储内部的意见结构和决策过程。 这种异议并非完全出乎意料。就在两周前，沃勒曾发表一场名为《现在就该降息的理由》的演讲，而鲍曼在6月下旬也进行了带有鸽派色彩的发言。二人都 采用温和的宏观经济理论来表述各自的立场，但它们实际上反映出了对经济现状的不同解读。从这一角度来看，他们的分歧主要体现在劳动力市场的稳定程 度上。鲍威尔关注的失业率处于相对低位以及高于目标水平的通胀，而持反对意见的沃勒和鲍曼则强调家庭支出的减少及私人部门就业岗位 ...

美联储7月31日宣布维持利率不变，但决议过程出现罕见分歧，声明未明确何时可能降息。 此次决议遭到两位由特朗普任命的理事——沃勒和鲍曼的反对，两人均认为当前的货币政策过于紧缩。这是30多年来首次有两名理事在决议中投出 反对票。 他表示，虽然一系列指标表明，劳动力市场状况总体平衡，符合充分就业的水平，但关税上调对经济和通胀的总体影响仍有待观察。对于是否会在 9月降息，美联储尚未做出决定。 他进一步解释说，央行正在关注关税对通胀的潜在影响。 他说："我们的义务是控制长期通胀预期，防止一次性物价上涨演变为持续的通胀问题。" 连续五次按兵不动 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储将基准利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.50%，连续第五次维持利率不变，符合市场预期。 美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员中，9人投票支持维持利率不变。美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼均投票支持降息25个基点， 这是自2020年以 来首次有超过一位美联储官员在会议中对鲍威尔的决定投反对票。美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒则缺席投票。 美联储在声明中表示："失业率仍处于低位，就业市场状况依然稳健。通胀仍然略高。"声明同时指出，经济增长在上半年"有所放缓"，这可能强化 ...

北京时间7月31日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标 区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这一决定符合市场预期，同时也是今年美联储货币政策会议连续 第五次决定维持利率不变。威灵顿投资管理固定收益投资组合经理Brij Khurana对此点评称，美联储最 新声明略显鸽派。 在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔对劳动力市场的讨论也呈现出一定的"鹰派"倾向。他表示，当前美国劳动力市 场处于一种供需平衡的状态，失业率维持在极低水平。这种平衡是由于劳动力供需均减少所致。因此， 鲍威尔认为衡量劳动力市场状况的关键指标应聚焦于失业率。就业增长极有可能显著放缓，但由于劳动 力参与率下降，失业率并不会上升。按照鲍威尔的决策框架，美联储在此情形下不会放宽政策。 "新闻发布会上释放的鹰派立场令市场意外，直接的体现就是短期政府债券遭到抛售。鉴于特朗普已向 美联储施压要求降息，许多人预期鲍威尔会借此次会议为9月降息做铺垫，但显然这一期望落空 了。"Brij Khurana称。 威灵顿投资管理固定收益投资组合经理Brij Khurana对此点评称，美联储最新声明略显鸽派。联邦公开 市场委员会认为，今年上半年 ...

美元周四在接近两个月高位的区间波动，此前美联储主席鲍威尔坚持其对降息的谨慎立场，同时日本央行保持利率不变但上调了通 胀预测。叠加特朗普关税的不确定性逐渐消退，7月有望成为美元今年以来首个实现月度正增长的月份。 据见闻此前文章，日本央行在为期两天的货币政策会议结束后，一致投票决定将短期利率维持在0.5%不变，但将本财年核心消费者 通胀预测从三个月前的2.2%上调至2.7%。该决议公布后，日元短线震荡，随后明显走高，对美元汇率升值0.5%至148.78。 而在隔夜，美联储主席鲍威尔在FOMC记者会上未就9月降息给出指引，表示关税和通胀仍充满不确定性，现在就断言9月降息还为 时过早。 美元指数稳定在99.7附近，距离前一交易日创下的两个月高点不远，本月累计涨幅约3.2%。市场焦点现已转向8月1日的关税大限， 届时未能与美国达成贸易协议的国家将面临高额关税。 美联储鹰派立场支撑美元走强 美元本月的强势表现主要归功于美联储的鹰派立场和美国经济的韧性。据见闻此前文章，美国Q2实际GDP年化季环比初值3%好于 预期，几个小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔重申，现在降息为时尚早，这一表态进一步提振了美元。 澳大利亚国民银行高级货币策略 ...

金十数据7月31日讯，福冈金融集团首席策略师Tohru sasaki表示，日本央行上调了将2026年的CPI预 测，但幅度仍然温和。他们对通胀前景的风险依然持谨慎态度，但除此之外，这次结果并不算特别引人 注目。如果我们只看当前通胀率的水平，日本央行完全有理由采取鹰派立场。从这一点来看，央行随时 都可能很快加息。但日本央行仍在持续关注全球风险，尤其是美国关税政策。事实上，日本和美国对于 所谓的关税协议的理解完全不一致，因此日美之间的贸易谈判仍存在很大不确定性。此外，日本国内政 局也不稳定。所以，如果行长植田和男想采取鸽派立场，他完全可以利用这些外部和内部的不确定性作 为理由；但如果他看通胀数据，又有充分依据可以转向鹰派。所以，目前来看，他既有理由偏鸽，也有 理由偏鹰。 策略师：通胀数据支持加息，但全球风险让日本央行保持谨慎 ...

Core Viewpoint - Strong exports from South Korea may support the Bank of Korea's hawkish stance in the upcoming policy meeting on July 10, as increased fiscal spending could alleviate concerns about economic growth [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Nomura Securities economist Jeong Woo Park suggests that robust exports, particularly in semiconductors, will continue to bolster economic recovery in the second half of the year [1] - South Korea's exports rebounded in June, driven by active semiconductor shipments, despite global trade being hampered by increased tariffs from the U.S. [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Korea is not expected to lower interest rates for the remainder of the year, with a forecasted rate cut of 25 basis points in February 2026 marking the end of the current easing cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is narrowing down candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating a potential early announcement before Powell's term ends, expressing dissatisfaction with Powell's performance [1][3]. Candidate Overview - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed governor and advisor to President Bush, seen as a leading candidate. Warsh has a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation concerns over employment. He has previously discussed the possibility of being nominated by Trump [4][5]. - **Scott Bessent**: The current Treasury Secretary, favored by Wall Street for his capabilities during policy implementation. Although he aims to complete his term, he has expressed interest in potentially becoming Fed Chair [6]. - **Christopher Waller**: A current Fed governor, considered a dark horse candidate. He has gained attention for advocating immediate interest rate cuts, indicating that the successor issue is influencing Fed policy discussions [7][8][9]. Powell's Position - Jerome Powell has reiterated his commitment to fulfilling his term, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a strong U.S. economy and controlled inflation. He has declined to comment on successor rumors, asserting that political factors will not influence Fed decisions [10][11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rates, contrary to traders' expectations of a hawkish stance [1] - The dot plot indicates a projected reduction of 50 basis points in interest rates by 2025, with a total of two rate cuts anticipated [1] - Prior to the announcement, traders were concerned that the number of rate cuts in 2025 might be reduced by one [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in gold prices is influenced by upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with market participants expecting rates to remain unchanged at a high probability of 98.1% [3] Market Analysis - As of May 7, gold prices have dropped to $3383.57 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 1.37% from earlier highs [1] - The highest price reached was $3437.49 per ounce, while the lowest was $3359.78 per ounce during the trading session [1] - The recent economic data, including a slowdown in core PCE inflation to 2.6% and strong employment figures, has alleviated some market concerns regarding inflationary pressures [3] Trading Strategy - The market anticipates a potential upward movement in gold prices if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance, suggesting possible rate cuts [3] - Conversely, if the Fed maintains its current rate, it could strengthen the dollar and exert downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Current trading strategies suggest monitoring the price range between $3350 and $3404 for potential high-low trading opportunities, with a focus on support levels at $3350 and $3290 [6]