公开资料显示，现年55岁的沃什出身华尔街金融界，曾在摩根士丹利从事企业并购顾问。他于2002年加 入小布什政府，担任经济政策幕僚，并于2006年获提名出任美联储理事。当时沃什只有35岁，是历来最 年轻的美联储理事。 实际上，沃什的履历横跨了政、商、学三界。他目前还是斯坦·德鲁肯米勒家族办公室Duquesne的合伙 人、斯坦福大学访问学者。德鲁肯米勒是美国传奇投资人，他与美国财政部长贝森特都曾在索罗斯基金 担任要职。外界注意到，此次美联储主席候选人的遴选也主要通过贝森特执行。沃什本科就读于斯坦福 大学，曾是著名经济学家弗里德曼的研究助手，他也是哈佛大学法律博士。 据新华社报道，当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布，提名美国联邦储备委员会前理 事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。不过，这项提名还需要获得国会参议院批准。若顺利通过参议院确 认，凯文·沃什将在5月中旬接过现任主席鲍威尔的棒子，领导这个过去一年来遭受特朗普多番施压和威 胁的全球重要的中央银行。 特朗普在凌晨发布的这则帖文中写道，"我认识凯文很久了，我绝不怀疑，他将成为一名伟大的美联储 主席，很可能是最杰出的。不仅如此，他是我'相中'的，绝不会让 ...

#黄金创40年来最大跌幅##黄金白银创单日暴跌纪录#【#贵金属地震原因找到了#】据央视财经援引美国 CNBC网站报道，引发贵金属市场跳水的"哨声"，首先是30日特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席， 分析称，凯文·沃什长期以鹰派立场著称，尽管近期公开支持降息以迎合特朗普，但市场认为他不太可 能激进降息。这一预期推动美元迅速反弹，令以美元计价的大宗商品对全球买家吸引力下降。叠加近期 贵金属价格不断创下新高，许多投资者选择在高位获利了结，加剧了卖盘交易，进一步放大市场波动。 来源：@21世纪经济报道微博 ...

《生活帮》编辑 万朝雪 【来源：每日经济新闻 证券时报】 1月30日，美国总统特朗普提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。因担忧沃什的鹰派立场，北 京时间1月31日凌晨，恐慌性抛售席卷全球贵金属市场。现货白银日跌至75.38美元/盎司，现货黄金日 内跌至4709.68美元/盎司。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在有媒体报道称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正准备于当地时间周五上午提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)出任下一任美联储主席之后，金融市场似乎一致认定这一长期偏鹰派立场的人选将比其他人选以及现任主席鲍威尔更鹰 派，且他本人极有可能拿出"缩表+降息"的不利于股债市场流动性扩张的独特政策组合，美元随美国国债收益率一同迅速走 高。几乎同一时间，美国三大股指期货跌幅扩大，本周持续强劲的原油在流动性缩减预期之下迅速转跌，贵金属以及工业金属 价格则在周五出现大幅下跌。 预测市场Polymarket最新显示，美联储前理事Kevin Warsh被特朗普提名为美联储新主席的概率飙升至95%。。当天稍早前，美 国总统特朗普表示，计划于当地时间30日上午(北京时间今晚)公布下一任美联储主席的正式提名。 如上图所示，预测市场对沃什出任下一任美联储主席的概率飙升——来自贝莱德的里德尔在近期作为领跑者之后热度回落。 博彩市场也越来越偏向沃什。Polymarket显示，其成为下一任美联储主席的概率在亚洲周五时段升至95%以上，而对贝莱德 (BlackRock Inc.)高管里克·里德尔的支持则大幅减弱。随着里 ...

汇丰 银行分析师Fred Neumann表示："继去年12月加息之后，日本央行今日维持利率不变并不令人意 外。然而，央行的展望报告暗示其鹰派立场正在增强，官员们上调了对未来一年经济增长的预期，更重 要的是，他们还小幅上调了未来几年的通胀预期。""由于债券市场和汇率持续承压，投资者希望了解未 来政策利率走向的更清晰信息，因此，日本央行行长植田和男的记者会将比以往更加引人注目。植田在 讲话中可能会倾向于更为鹰派的立场，这可能意味着下次会议仍有进一步加息的可能性。日本央行理事 会似乎也倾向于更为鹰派的立场，今天会议上的一位持不同意见者表示，进一步加息的可能性依然存 在。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's hesitation regarding the nomination of Kevin Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chairman has disrupted the recent calm in the U.S. Treasury market, with market participants reassessing potential interest rate paths based on different candidates' policies [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's comments, betting markets indicated a significant drop in Hassett's chances of being nominated, with former Fed governor Waller's probability rising to nearly 60% [1][3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.23%, the highest level since September 2 of the previous year, while the 2-year yield reached its highest point since December 9 [3][4]. Group 2: Candidate Analysis - Hassett was previously viewed as the leading candidate to succeed current Fed Chair Powell, known for his loyalty to Trump and potential to advocate for interest rate cuts. His exit could lead to a more hawkish candidate being appointed [3][6]. - Waller, in contrast, is seen as a more unpredictable candidate with a history of hawkish views, even advocating for rate hikes during the financial crisis. His recent calls for rate cuts have raised questions about his future policy direction [6][7]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The recent spike in Treasury yields followed a period of stability, with the 10-year yield trading within a narrow range of just 8 basis points earlier in the month [8][10]. - The low volatility in the Treasury market, indicated by the ICE BofA MOVE index dropping to its lowest level since September 2021, has contributed to the market's subdued activity [10].

"2026年伊始，将迎来一位新的王者，"Annex Wealth Management首席经济策略师Brian Jacobsen表 示，"小盘价值股正在取代大盘成长股，成为新的领头羊。多年来，市场走势时常出现假动作，但人们 期待已久的'大轮动'或许终于要来了"。 区域银行股PNC Financial Services Group Inc．收盘走高3.8%，此前该行发布的第四季度业绩增长； Regions Financial Corp．收跌2.6%，早前该公司发布的第四季度每股盈利和总贷款不及分析师平均预 期。 截至收盘，标普500指数下跌0.06%，报6940.01点。 道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.17%，报49359.33点。 纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.06%，报23515.39点。 来源：环球市场播报 美股周五下跌，本周走低，交易员权衡特朗普有关不想让凯文·哈塞特接任美联储主席的表态。 标普500指数周五收跌0.06%，尽管大型芯片制造商股价走高，一项备受关注的衡量芯片制造商的指标 上涨了1.1%，但基准股指仍难以获得上涨动力。小盘股则持续走高，罗素2000指数连续第11个交易日 跑赢美股基准指数。 特朗普周 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇1月17日｜分析师Adam Button表示："原以为鲍曼在竞选美联储主席失败后可能会重回鹰派立 场，但她依然坚守阵地。她关于"适度限制性"的看法与大多数美联储成员的共识相左，因为绝大多数成 员认为目前的政策要么处于中性区间，要么已经非常接近。随着时间的推移，她的声音将变得非常值得 关注，因为未来可能会出现票数接近的表决，而如果价格再次回升，她也很容易转回鹰派。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices reached a record high above $80 per ounce on Monday but subsequently retreated, while gold prices also fell from near historical highs due to profit-taking by investors and a perceived reduction in geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors engaged in profit-taking after gold prices hit record highs, leading to a decline in both gold and silver prices [1] - Optimism regarding progress in U.S. government-led peace negotiations in Ukraine contributed to a moderate headwind for safe-haven buying [1] Group 2: Upcoming Events - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes scheduled for release on Tuesday, which may provide insights into future interest rate outlooks [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - UBS analysts noted that gold prices are at a high premium, and a sudden hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve or significant outflows from large ETFs could pose downward risks to the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair has intensified, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading candidates, influenced by recent endorsements and market predictions [1][2]. Group 1: Candidates and Market Predictions - Kevin Warsh has gained significant traction, with prediction markets showing his chances at 48% on Kalshi and 49% on Polymarket, while Kevin Hassett's chances are at 41% and 43% respectively [1]. - Stephen Myrow, a partner at Beacon Policy Advisors, suggests that Warsh's chances may be overstated compared to Hassett, who is closer to Trump's inner circle [2]. Group 2: Concerns and Endorsements - Concerns have been raised about Hassett's suitability due to his overt support for Trump's policies, which could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [1]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has publicly supported Warsh, adding weight to his candidacy [1]. Group 3: Background of Kevin Warsh - Kevin Warsh is a known critic of the Federal Reserve, having served as a governor from 2006 to 2011, and has held various roles in academia and investment [3]. - Warsh's advocacy for lower interest rates contrasts with his previous hawkish stance during his tenure at the Fed [3][4]. Group 4: Perspectives on Hassett - Hassett has countered concerns about being a "mouthpiece" for Trump, arguing that his leadership could differ from his past affiliations [5]. - E.J. Antoni from the Heritage Foundation believes that fears regarding Hassett's partisanship are exaggerated, emphasizing the historical context of the Fed's independence [5].