新华财经北京10月10日电瑞穗证券亚洲（除日本外）宏观研究主管Vishnu Varathan在一份报告中表示， 尽管随着高市早苗即将出任首相，日本央行在10月份加息的几率正在减弱，但日本央行在短期内仍将保 持鹰派立场，不过不会感到迫切加息的紧迫性。 Varathan指出，迄今为止60个基点的加息已导致长期日本国债收益率出现更大涨幅，因此日本央行将谨 慎行事，避免对经济造成过度紧缩。 他还表示，日本央行可能还会受到脆弱的家庭信心以及"美联储与日本央行政策分歧加剧可能导致日元 突然升值的潜在不利冲击的危险"的限制。 他警告称，如果美联储在日本央行保持鹰派的同时，转向明显鸽派，由此导致的日元飙升可能会重创日 本的出口和资产市场。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 147, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous close of 147.71 [1] - Political risks associated with the upcoming Japanese Liberal Democratic Party presidential election may impact the yen [1] - If candidate Sanae Takaichi wins, the yen may initially weaken due to concerns over her dovish stance delaying the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - Despite high inflation in Japan exceeding the central bank's target for three consecutive years, the possibility of an interest rate hike in October may not be completely ruled out even if Takaichi is elected [1] - The election outcome may not have a lasting impact on the yen, as seen in the case of candidate Shigeru Ishiba, whose initial strengthening of the yen was reversed due to his preference for maintaining a loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY pair previously failed to sustain a breakthrough above the 148.20 level, leading to a downward correction [2] - A key bearish trend line is forming, with resistance at the 148.00 level [2] - The USD/JPY faced selling pressure and dropped below the 148.00 level, further retreating below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upward movement from 146.30 to 148.16 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision marks the official restart of the rate-cutting cycle, with an additional rate cut expected in 2024, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's current position is described as the most dovish stance possible, acknowledging weaker-than-expected employment market performance [1] - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision has been relatively muted, as the policy stance did not exceed market expectations [1] Group 2: Future Rate Cuts - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December [1] - A single 50 basis point cut may not necessarily benefit the credit environment, suggesting a more gradual policy approach could be more favorable for market stability [1] Group 3: Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index is currently supported in the range of 97.70 to 97.90, with resistance at 98.30 to 98.50 [1] - A breakout above this range could lead to a rise towards the 99 level, while a drop below 97.50 may result in a further decline towards 97.00 [1] - The RSI indicator shows weak momentum, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong retail sales and industrial production data in the U.S. for August, gold prices continue to rise, reaching historical highs [1][3]. Economic Data - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.2% [6]. - Industrial production in August showed a slight increase, with factory output rising by 0.1%, indicating moderate growth in manufacturing activities [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Weak employment data supports a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with market participants awaiting policy decisions and economic forecasts [2][4]. - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, with minimal expectations for a 50 basis point cut [8]. - Deutsche Bank and other banks anticipate three rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% [9]. Geopolitical Factors - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations provides geopolitical support for gold prices [5]. Market Movements - The gold price reached a record high of $3,703 before retreating slightly, currently trading around $3,690 [3][12]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.74% to 96.62, while U.S. Treasury yields remained stable [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Gold is hovering around $3,690, with bullish sentiment aiming for a challenge of the historical high, potentially extending to $3,750 and $3,800 [12]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting limited short-term upside [13].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its interest rates during the upcoming decision on September 11, aligning with long-standing views and current market expectations [1][2] - Economic data since the July meeting has shown mixed results, with August PMI slightly better than expected and a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2, although this may be revised down [1][2] - There are signs of anti-inflation since June, including the appreciation of the euro and higher-than-expected tariffs from the US on the EU, but the ECB's inflation forecasts are not expected to be downgraded [2] Group 2 - ECB President Lagarde emphasized that the current state is stable, indicating no intention for further rate cuts, which supports the view that data is insufficient to change policy in September [2] - The ECB's inflation target of 2% is likely to be missed in the coming year, with projections suggesting it may only be reached by 2027 [2] - Lagarde may be questioned about France's situation and the potential use of the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), but it is anticipated she will avoid the topic, stating it is too early for such discussions [3]

Group 1 - President Trump nominated Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board, indicating a potential shift towards a more dovish stance from the Fed [2][4] - The nomination follows the resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, allowing Trump to make a new appointment ahead of schedule [2][4] - Analysts suggest that Moore's appointment may lead to a weaker dollar as he has previously supported policies that could undermine the currency's strength [4][5] Group 2 - The Japanese stock market saw significant gains, with the TOPIX index rising 1.5% and surpassing the 3000-point mark for the first time, marking a historical high [5] - SoftBank Group's stock surged over 12% after reporting a net profit of 421.82 billion yen for the first quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations [5][6] - Sony's stock increased by over 6%, with the company raising its full-year profit guidance after reporting a 36% year-on-year increase in operating profit for the first quarter [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dissent within the Federal Reserve marks a significant shift in its traditionally consensus-driven decision-making process, influenced by external pressures such as President Trump's policies and rhetoric [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - On July 30, two Federal Reserve rate setters, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, voted against the majority to maintain interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5%, proposing a 0.25 percentage point cut instead, indicating a rare occurrence of "dual dissent" within the board [3]. - Waller and Bowman had previously expressed their views advocating for rate cuts, reflecting differing interpretations of the current economic conditions, particularly regarding labor market stability [5][6]. - Powell acknowledged the internal disagreements as stemming from noble intentions and polite discussions, emphasizing the thoughtful nature of the rate policy despite external noise [6]. Group 2: Economic Context and Market Reactions - Trump's administration has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve, with considerations of dismissing Powell, although recent visits to the Fed did not lead to significant market fluctuations [8]. - Following the July 30 meeting, investor confidence in Powell's judgment increased, despite the dissent, as he defended a cautious approach to interest rates, which led to a slight rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a drop in the stock market [8]. - Expectations for the Fed's next meeting in September shifted, with the likelihood of a rate cut dropping from two-thirds to less than half after Powell's remarks, highlighting market uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, amidst rare dissent among board members [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The decision to keep rates steady was supported by 9 out of 12 voting members, while two members, Waller and Bowman, opposed the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3]. - This dissent is notable as it marks the first time since 2020 that more than one Federal Reserve official voted against the chair's decision [3]. - The Fed's statement highlighted that while the unemployment rate remains low and the job market is stable, inflation is still slightly elevated, and economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year [3]. Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is monitoring the potential impact of tariffs on inflation and has not yet made a decision regarding a rate cut in September [4][5]. - Following the Fed's announcement, traders significantly reduced their expectations for a September rate cut, with the probability of maintaining rates at 58.8% and a 41.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut [6]. - The probabilities for future meetings show a cumulative 47.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut by October and a 14.6% chance of a 50 basis point cut [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Analysts noted that Powell's remarks reflected both hawkish and dovish tendencies, suggesting that the threshold for a policy shift has lowered, allowing for potential rate cuts if upcoming data is unfavorable [8]. - The market reacted positively to the hawkish signals, with the dollar index rising close to 100, although a disappointing non-farm payroll report could reverse these expectations [8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting this year where rates were held steady, aligning with market expectations [1] - The Fed's latest statement was perceived as slightly dovish, acknowledging a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and removing previous language that suggested reduced economic uncertainty, indicating greater downside risks to employment goals [1] Group 2 - During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell's tone shifted to a more hawkish stance, emphasizing that tariffs only pose a one-time shock to price levels and that the Fed will ensure tariffs do not trigger inflation [2] - Powell noted that the current labor market is in a state of supply-demand balance with low unemployment rates, suggesting that key indicators should focus on unemployment rather than employment growth, which may slow significantly [2] - The hawkish signals from the press conference surprised the market, leading to a sell-off in short-term government bonds, contradicting expectations that Powell would pave the way for a rate cut in September [2]

金十数据7月31日讯，福冈金融集团首席策略师Tohru sasaki表示，日本央行上调了将2026年的CPI预 测，但幅度仍然温和。他们对通胀前景的风险依然持谨慎态度，但除此之外，这次结果并不算特别引人 注目。如果我们只看当前通胀率的水平，日本央行完全有理由采取鹰派立场。从这一点来看，央行随时 都可能很快加息。但日本央行仍在持续关注全球风险，尤其是美国关税政策。事实上，日本和美国对于 所谓的关税协议的理解完全不一致，因此日美之间的贸易谈判仍存在很大不确定性。此外，日本国内政 局也不稳定。所以，如果行长植田和男想采取鸽派立场，他完全可以利用这些外部和内部的不确定性作 为理由；但如果他看通胀数据，又有充分依据可以转向鹰派。所以，目前来看，他既有理由偏鸽，也有 理由偏鹰。 策略师：通胀数据支持加息，但全球风险让日本央行保持谨慎 ...