Core Viewpoint - The 2026 macroeconomic financial outlook report indicates a moderate global economic slowdown, with growth expected to be around 2.7% to 3.1%, reflecting a "low-speed but stable" characteristic [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - Global geopolitical risks are anticipated to enter a "high volatility period," while the China-US economic relationship may experience a phase of easing [1] - China's fiscal deficit rate is projected to reach 4.0% to 4.2%, with a deficit scale increasing to 6 trillion to 6.25 trillion yuan [1] - The expected growth target for China's economy in 2026 is likely to remain around 5% [2] Group 2: Investment and Consumption - Export growth in China is expected to maintain a rate of 3% to 4%, contributing 20% to overall economic growth, which translates to a 1 percentage point increase in GDP [2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) is projected to grow by 2.0%, contributing 25% to economic growth and adding 1.25 percentage points to GDP [2] - Social retail sales are expected to grow by around 4%, with consumption contributing approximately 55% to economic growth, an increase of 3 percentage points from 2025 [2] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Recommendations for enhancing macroeconomic policy include increasing fiscal and credit support for service consumption and exploring an "external capital industry chain empowerment plan" [3] - Emphasis on stimulating private enterprises to engage in technological innovation and addressing local fiscal difficulties is highlighted [3] - The report suggests measures for real estate market regulation and promoting a moderate appreciation of the yuan to support industrial restructuring and financial openness [3]