行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2026 年 03 月 01 日 春节后"沪七条"新政卡点推出，释 放稳楼市强信号并示范全国 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/2/21-2026/2/27） 本期投资提示： 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 相关研究 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、 ...

2025年，东京房地产市场交出了一份极具冲击力的成绩单。 东京KANTEI最新调查显示，东京23区二手住宅平均期望出售价格首次站上1亿日元关口，达到每70平方米1亿393万日元，同比上涨34.6%。这一 涨幅刷新了自1997年有可比数据以来的最高纪录。价格的跃升，不仅意味着统计意义上的突破，也折射出市场热度的集中释放。 2025年房地产投资市场表现强劲，海外资本的参与度明显提升。在全球地缘政治风险加剧的环境下，不少战略资金将日本视为相对稳健的落脚 点，其中大中华地区资金尤为活跃。 尽管日本央行在2025年12月将政策利率上调至0.75%，并释放出2026年可能继续加息的信号，但横向比较来看，日本整体利率水平仍低于多数主 要经济体。这一利率环境，仍为不动产投资提供了基础支撑。 另一方面，日本企业正在经历深层次转型。为优化资产结构、提升运营效率，不少企业开始出售非核心房地产资产，增加市场可流通标的。资产 端的重新整合，使投资市场在价格高位之下仍保持一定活跃度。 大型综合房地产服务公司JLL预测，日本房地产市场整体趋势仍偏稳健。数据显示，2025年1—12月日本房地产投资总额预计达到6万亿日元，且 这一规模有望在2 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved full year consolidated NOI growth of 31.3% and reduced leverage by over three turns, with no debt maturities until 2028 [6][7] - For Q4, total revenue was $379.6 million, adjusted EBITDAre was $72.4 million, and normalized FFO was $21.8 million or $0.09 per share [9] - Full year adjusted EBITDAre was $284 million, at the high end of guidance [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - SHOP NOI for the full year was $139.3 million, driven by same-property occupancy increasing 90 basis points year-over-year to 82.4% and an average monthly rate increase of 5.8% [9][10] - Medical office and life science portfolio saw same-property Cash Basis NOI increase by 3.8% year-over-year, with margins improving 100 basis points to 59.6% [12] - The company completed approximately 81,000 sq ft of leasing in the medical office and life science portfolio at weighted average rents 7.9% above prior rents [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted robust demand for SHOP communities, supported by a growing 80-plus population and muted new supply expected for several years [15] - The leasing pipeline in the medical office and life science segment remains active, totaling 1 million sq ft with average lease terms of 6.9 years and GAAP rent spreads averaging more than 10% [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on unlocking value through operational improvements and has identified approximately 15 locations for potential reopening of closed wings, which could add around 500 units to the portfolio [28] - Future capital expenditures are expected to decrease significantly, with guidance for 2026 set at $100 million-$115 million, reflecting a disciplined approach to capital spending [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the 2026 outlook, citing strong improvements in the SHOP segment and reduced debt as key drivers of free cash flow growth [22][23] - The company anticipates continued increases in revenue and occupancy, leading to strong NOI and margin growth in 2026 [18] Other Important Information - The company completed the sale of 37 non-core properties for approximately $250 million in Q4, contributing to a total of 69 properties sold for approximately $605 million in 2025 [13][14] - The company has a well-laddered debt maturity schedule with no maturities until 2028, allowing for a focus on operations [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the go-forward strategy and opportunities for reopening wings? - The main strategy is to grow performance through operations, with potential to add close to 500 units through identified wings at a cost of $125-$175 per unit [27][28] Question: Will external investments focus on renovations or acquisitions? - The focus is on renovations due to better risk-adjusted returns, but acquisitions are not ruled out for the future [29][30] Question: What drove the Q4 margin improvement? - The improvement was a combination of reduced transition noise and core operational gains [31] Question: What are the trends for January and February? - January showed promising results in line with expectations, with rent escalators in the range of 4%-6% [33][34] Question: How should NOI growth be viewed over the coming quarters? - NOI growth is expected to be back half of the year weighted due to occupancy growth and sales season [39] Question: What are the prospects for renewing leases in the medical office and life science segment? - There are promising outlooks for re-leasing, particularly for a building in Fremont, California [46] Question: What implications does the momentum have on dividends? - There are no immediate priorities on addressing the dividend, with a focus on operations and growth in NOI [52][53]

中国人自古以来，就有着对房子的特殊执着，几乎每个人都渴望能够拥有一处属于自己的住所。为了这 一目标，很多人辛苦奋斗一辈子，都不敢轻易放弃。一旦买房，他们通常会选择支付一笔首付，剩下的 房贷则分期偿还。大部分人也只会选择买一套房子，因为这样他们的负担会小一些，工作和生活的压力 不会太大。 然而，与大多数人不同的是，邝美云，她买房的方式完全不同。她的选择是——一次性买下十套房子， 而且还是在一线城市！想象一下，仅仅是首付，每个月就要支付几百万的费用。这种压力，几乎让她陷 入了破产的边缘。但是，面对如此巨大的经济负担，邝美云并没有选择放弃，而是拼尽全力去赚钱。生 活也没有辜负她的坚持和努力。经过几年房贷的艰难还款，她所购买的房产价值逐渐上涨，终于到了合 适的时机，她便果断将这些房产卖出。最终，她的本金翻了好几倍，成为了真正的富婆。 在当今社会，拥有一套属于自己的房子，已经成为许多年轻人在大都市打拼的最大梦想。而买房，也几 乎成了现代社会的主流话题。房子对于很多人来说，不仅是生活的依托，更是事业和家庭稳定的基础。 拥有一套房子，可以减少许多生活上的负担，让自己在这个竞争激烈的大城市中，有了立足的资本。更 重要的是，买 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：财富中文网 比尔·盖茨正悄然精简其西雅图郊外知名豪宅"世外桃源2.0"周边房产，该庄园总估值达1.32亿美元。 房产挂牌信息显示，这位微软联合创始人正挂牌出售一套价值480万美元的房产，该房产"坐落于麦迪纳 最炙手可热的山坡地段"。《财富》杂志查阅的房产记录显示，盖茨于1995年以100万美元购入这套四室 三卫的住宅。 这与盖茨仅一年前的表态截然不同——当时他称自己并无缩减房产的打算。 "我承认西雅图的房子确实很大。我的姐妹们都搬入小型住宅，但我做不到。我喜欢现在的住处，"他 2025年接受《纽约时报》采访时表示，"孩子们喜欢回来住，这本身就是种奢侈。我不下厨，不整理床 铺，但就算没人整理床铺我也无所谓——反正我不会注意到。" 此次挂牌出售的房产，紧邻其占地6.6万平方英尺（约合6131.6平方米）的湖畔主宅"世外桃源2.0"。房 产记录显示，这座主宅2025年的最新估值为1.32亿美元。盖茨刚挂牌出售的这套相邻小户型住宅面积为 2800平方英尺（约合260平方米），是他1994年与梅琳达·弗伦奇·盖茨（Melinda Frenc ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The 2026 real estate market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend, with two significant turning points anticipated throughout the year [2] - The overall sales volume and price are projected to face pressure in Q1, with potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 to stabilize the market in Q2 [3][24] - The report emphasizes the need for policy measures to support demand and stabilize investment, particularly focusing on the financial pressures faced by developers [8][19] Sales Forecast - The report forecasts a total sales area of 810 million square meters in 2026, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8% - The average sales price is expected to be 9,144 yuan per square meter, down 4% year-on-year - The total sales amount is projected to be 7.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12% decline compared to the previous year [3][22][21] Development Investment - Real estate development investment is anticipated to reach 6.9 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to 2025 [4][21] - The report indicates that the decline in new construction area is expected to be 18% year-on-year, with a total of 480 million square meters [4][21] Completion Forecast - The report predicts that the completion area will be 490 million square meters in 2026, down 19% year-on-year, continuing the trend of cyclical contraction [5][21] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the main contradiction in the real estate market has shifted from "shrinking transaction volume" to "continuing price declines," particularly affecting the second-hand housing market [9] - It suggests that the market's recovery will depend on effective policy measures and the stabilization of developer financing [8][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Developers with stable fundamentals and high market share in first and second-tier cities 2. Smaller developers showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new operational models in the new consumption era [9][21]

比尔·盖茨出售其位于华盛顿州麦迪纳的部分房产。图片来源：Getty Images—Patrick van Katwijk 比尔·盖茨正悄然精简其西雅图郊外知名豪宅"世外桃源2.0"周边房产，该庄园总估值达1.32亿美元。 房产挂牌信息显示，这位微软联合创始人正挂牌出售一套价值480万美元的房产，该房产"坐落于麦迪纳 最炙手可热的山坡地段"。《财富》杂志查阅的房产记录显示，盖茨于1995年以100万美元购入这套四室 三卫的住宅。 这与盖茨仅一年前的表态截然不同——当时他称自己并无缩减房产的打算。 "我承认西雅图的房子确实很大。我的姐妹们都搬入小型住宅，但我做不到。我喜欢现在的住处，"他 2025年接受《纽约时报》采访时表示，"孩子们喜欢回来住，这本身就是种奢侈。我不下厨，不整理床 铺，但就算没人整理床铺我也无所谓——反正我不会注意到。" 此次挂牌出售的房产，紧邻其占地6.6万平方英尺（约合6131.6平方米）的湖畔主宅"世外桃源2.0"。房 产记录显示，这座主宅2025年的最新估值为1.32亿美元。盖茨刚挂牌出售的这套相邻小户型住宅面积为 2800平方英尺（约合260平方米），是他1994年与梅琳达·弗伦奇·盖 ...

中金研究 我们更新了2026年1月中金存量住房市场监测体系数据。 Source 文章来源 本文摘自：2026年2月10日已经发布的《1月二手房量、价走势趋稳》 李昊 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070007 SFC CE Ref：BSI853 张宇 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080512070004 SFC CE Ref：AZB713 徐曼迪 联系人 SAC 执证编号：S0080124070018 Legal Disclaimer 法律声明 特别提示 点击小程序查看报告原文 1月二手房成交量环比基本 走平、 同比跌幅收窄；同时，成交价环比跌幅显著收窄。 成交量方面，1月中介口径80城二手住宅成交量指数环比微降3%， 同比微降3%（2025年12月-17%，四季度-16%）；1月备案口径15城二手房成交面积环比上升3%，受去年春节假期低基数影响同比上升25%，如不考虑低 基数周则同比微跌3%（2025年12月-34%，四季度-25%）。成交价方面，1月中金同质性二手住宅成交价格指数环比降幅显著收窄至-0.6%。 1月二手房挂牌量微降，挂牌价环比降幅收窄。 挂牌量方面，1月我们监测的130城二手 ...

（原标题：卡塔尔投资局携手中国香港资本布局东南亚房地产市场） ZAWYA 2月3日消息，卡塔尔投资局与中国香港置地控股共同成为新加坡中央私人房地产基金的创 始投资者。该基金初始资产管理规模达82亿新加坡元，是新加坡规模最大的办公楼类私人房地产基金， 重点布局新加坡、吉隆坡等核心商业区资产。 ...

其中，2021～2023年，产业投资和工业投资均保持两位数快速增长，特别是在2024年全部投资负增长的 情况下，产业投资增长2.2%，高于全部投资9.9个百分点。产业民间投资占全部民间投资比重由2021年 的42.6%提升至2025年的65.1%，有力支撑了全省经济高质量发展。 房地产开发投资曾经是云南经济快速增长的重要支撑。根据统计公报，2019年，云南房地产开发投资 4151.41亿元，比上年增长27.8%，带动全年固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长8.5%，当年云南GDP比 上年增长8.1%，高于全国2.0个百分点，位居全国第二位。 但是，最近几年，云南房地产开发投资呈快速下跌的趋势。根据统计公报，2020-2024年，云南房地产 开发投资分别增长8.5%、-4.3%、-26.9%、-34.4%和-28.5%，尤其是2022年以来，三年年均下降三成左 右，其累计下降幅度为全国之最。 近日，云南省统计局发布的数据显示，2025年，全省固定资产投资同比下降7.0%。其中，房地产开发 投资仍下降2.9%。绿色能源投资成为稳投资的重要支撑，风电投资同比增长54.3%，电力供应投资增长 45.0%，水电投资增长18 ...