1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. TACO trading has heated up again, influenced by the Middle - East situation. The LPR remains unchanged, while the reduced expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and increased global trade uncertainty add uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. In the short term, the policy signals at the end of the month should be monitored [4]. - The financial data has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market. The decline in credit growth and insufficient household financing demand indicate that the restoration of the economy's internal driving force still takes time, and bond yields are still driven downward. However, the impact of rising inflation expectations on short - term sentiment should be noted [3]. - The front - loaded fiscal policy and government bond supply suppress the short - term sentiment of the bond market, but the central bank's liquidity support and potential subsequent overall easing will provide bottom support for the bond market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month increase of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%; monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.90% [10]. - Monthly economic indicators: The scale of social financing is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year remains at 9.00%; the manufacturing PMI is 50.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points and a growth rate of 2.86% [11]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 and a decline rate of 0.64%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 6.8871, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.026 and a decline rate of 0.38%; SHIBOR for 7 days is 1.44, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.41%; DR007 is 1.42, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.44%; R007 is 1.55, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.44, down 0.02 with a decline rate of 1.23%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.23% [12]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL on March 31, 2026, are 102.54 yuan, 106.11 yuan, 108.40 yuan, and 111.69 yuan respectively. The price changes are 0.00%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.15% respectively [4]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.082 yuan, 0.050 yuan, 0.031 yuan, and 0.065 yuan respectively [4]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - On March 31, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 3.25 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [3]. - The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.277%, 1.438%, 1.469%, and 1.495% respectively, and the repurchase rates have declined recently [3]. IV. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - term spread of treasury bond futures, the spread between the current bond term and the futures cross - variety (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc.) [8]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [42][43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [45][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [55][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and two - year net basis trends of the TL main contract [61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [5].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4% in March, indicating a seasonal rebound post-Spring Festival, surpassing the market expectation[5] - The new orders index increased significantly, becoming the highest among the five sub-indices of PMI, driving the overall PMI growth[5] - The raw material purchase price index reached 63.9%, while the factory price index was at 55.4%, marking an 8.5 percentage point gap, the largest since May 2022[9] Group 2: Price Dynamics and Profitability - The widening "scissors gap" between raw material purchase prices and factory prices may negatively impact corporate profits, particularly affecting downstream consumption[10] - Historical data shows that similar price dynamics in March and April 2022 led to increased upstream profits while downstream consumption profits declined[10] - The manufacturing sector's price indicators are crucial to monitor, as they are not part of the PMI composition but significantly influence future trends[9] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The non-manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1%, but the recovery pace is slower than that of the manufacturing sector[16] - Construction-related activities, particularly in civil engineering, showed improvement, with the business activity index rising above 55%[16] - The government plans to implement more proactive macro policies to stimulate domestic demand, which may support the construction sector further[18] Group 4: Risk Factors - Key risks include slow recovery of consumer confidence, policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential escalations in trade tensions and geopolitical issues[20]

Core Viewpoint - The perception that higher trading activity indicates a more vibrant market is a misconception; in fact, in the Chinese A-share market, trading volume and pricing efficiency are inversely related, with higher trading volumes leading to lower pricing efficiency due to the dominance of retail investors [1][3]. Market Structure and Pricing Efficiency - Currently, 60% of the trading volume in the A-share market is contributed by individual investors, whose trades often lack informational content, leading to what is termed "noise trading" [3][13]. - To improve pricing efficiency and the informational content of stock prices, it is crucial to change the investor structure towards a more institutionalized model [3][15]. Economic Conditions and Market Outlook - Liu Qiao, a prominent economist, highlighted that some industries are trapped in a cycle of low prices, low profits, and low incomes, which affects overall economic vitality [2][5]. - The Chinese stock market has the foundation for a "slow bull" market, supported by the long-term growth potential of the economy and the continuous improvement in the quality of listed companies [2][12]. - A potential turnaround in the price index is expected by the second half of this year or early next year, which could positively impact the capital market [2][12]. Monetary Policy and Price Recovery - The current monetary policy aims to facilitate a reasonable recovery in prices, which is seen as essential for economic stimulation [5][6]. - Structural interest rate cuts are recommended to lower financing costs for households and small to medium enterprises, which could enhance consumer spending and economic activity [6][7]. Structural Issues in the Economy - The persistent low prices have created a structural cycle that suppresses economic growth, where low product prices lead to low corporate profits and subsequently low labor incomes [5][9]. - Addressing these structural issues requires promoting reasonable price recovery, allowing companies to achieve reasonable profit margins, and enhancing labor income [10][9]. Institutional Investment and Market Dynamics - The dominance of retail investors in the A-share market leads to inefficiencies; thus, accelerating the institutionalization of the market is essential for improving pricing efficiency [15][17]. - The U.S. market successfully reduced the proportion of retail trading from 60%-80% to around 10% over several decades, which is a model for improving the A-share market's efficiency [15][17]. AI and Economic Growth - Current AI applications have limited short-term impact on economic growth, contributing only about 0.06% to total factor productivity growth [18]. - Long-term investment in AI applications is expected to yield more significant economic benefits, although the immediate effects may be overstated [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2026, government bond issuance continued the front - loading trend, with total issuance expanding year - on - year but net financing declining due to increased repayment. In Q2, fiscal policy will remain proactive, and government bond supply will be strong with an optimized rhythm. The net financing scale of government bonds in Q2 is expected to be around 4 trillion yuan, and attention should be paid to the impact of special treasury bond issuance on the market and the long - term bond reception capacity [2][3][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Q1 Review: Total Government Bond Volume Increased Year - on - Year, and Net Financing Declined Relatively 1.1 Scale and Rhythm: Longer Maturity of Treasury Bond Issuance, Slower Year - on - Year Growth of Local Refinancing Bonds - In Q1 2026, government bond issuance continued the front - loading feature. The total issuance increased by 5490.72 billion yuan year - on - year, but net financing decreased by 5637.03 billion yuan due to higher repayment. Treasury bond issuance was front - loaded, with a net financing progress of 21.55% of the annual expected scale, similar to the same period in 2025. Local bond issuance was also front - loaded, with a net financing progress of 40.32%, the fastest in the past five years. New special local bonds had a faster issuance progress, and local ordinary refinancing bonds were issued faster while special refinancing bonds were slower [9][10][12]. 1.2 Term Structure and Issuance Sentiment: Expansion of Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds, Increase in 10Y and 30Y Local Bonds - Treasury bond issuance expansion was concentrated in the 7 - 10Y medium - and long - term, with the overall duration lengthened. The issuance sentiment was stable, and the market's reception capacity was maintained. Local bond term structure was more concentrated in 10Y and 30Y, and although the weighted duration decreased, the supply pressure at key long - term points increased. The long - term concentrated issuance of local bonds affected market participation, but the pricing stability was strong [18][20][22]. 2. Q2 Outlook: Fiscal Policy Remains Front - Loaded, and Supply in Q2 is Strong 2.1 Supply Side: Front - Loaded Treasury Bond Issuance, Smooth Local Bond Issuance - In Q2, fiscal policy will remain proactive, and government bond supply will be strong with an optimized rhythm. Treasury bond issuance is expected to increase, with a total issuance of about 45088.60 billion yuan and a net financing of 20983.30 billion yuan, reaching about 50% of the annual net financing progress by the end of Q2. Local bond issuance will be smooth, with a peak in May. The total issuance is expected to be about 29370.10 billion yuan, and the net financing is about 19021.61 billion yuan [25][27][30]. 2.2 Sentiment Side: Pay Attention to the Potential Impact of Special Treasury Bond Issuance on the Market - The special treasury bond issuance arrangement is not fully clear. Historically, the announcement of the issuance plan has easily led to short - term gaming, and the supply shock is mainly concentrated in the T + 1 to T + 5 window, with a stronger impact on the 30Y interest rate than the 10Y [35][37]. 2.3 Demand Side: Pay Attention to the Reception Capacity of Allocation - Oriented Investors for Ultra - Long - Term Treasury Bonds - In Q1 2026, insurance funds' willingness to allocate long - term treasury bonds was significantly weaker than in the same period last year, while the demand for long - term and ultra - long - term local bonds was more stable. In Q2, more attention should be paid to the market's reception capacity for ultra - long - term treasury bonds [38][40][41].

Fiscal Performance Indicators - The narrow deficit ratio for 2026 is expected to decrease by approximately 0.04 percentage points compared to 2025, while the broad deficit ratio is projected to decline by about 0.67 percentage points[1] - If the 2026 fiscal revenue and expenditure are completed as budgeted, the year-on-year growth rate of narrow fiscal expenditure is expected to reach 4.6%, up from 3.7% in 2025, an increase of about 0.9 percentage points[2] - The year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure is anticipated to be 5.3%, an increase of approximately 0.8 percentage points from 4.5% in 2025[2] Expected Growth in Physical Fiscal Expenditure - The expected year-on-year growth rate of physical broad fiscal expenditure is projected to be 4.8%, significantly higher than the 0.6% growth rate in 2025, marking an increase of about 4.2 percentage points[2] - The reasonable expected value for physical broad fiscal expenditure in 2026 is anticipated to achieve a year-on-year growth of around 2.6%, which is an increase of approximately 2 percentage points compared to the previous year[2] Sources of Growth in Fiscal Expenditure - The expected growth in physical broad fiscal expenditure is primarily driven by three factors: anticipated tax revenue growth, increased utilization of general public budget funds, and more allocations of "quasi-fiscal funds"[3] - It is estimated that physical broad fiscal expenditure will increase by approximately CNY 1.01 trillion in 2026 compared to 2025, with contributions of about CNY 474.6 billion from general public budget adjustments and CNY 465.5 billion from tax revenue growth[3] Investment Focus and Risks - The 2026 fiscal budget is expected to provide stronger support for physical work output compared to 2025, with a focus on expanding investment areas beyond traditional sectors[4] - Risks include potential underperformance of the fiscal budget execution, practical challenges in supporting equity investments, and inaccuracies in the expected surplus of government funds[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation trading in the bond market is nearing its end, and the market logic may shift to changes in capital and risk appetite in the short term. With the central bank's support at the end of the quarter, liquidity remains abundant, short - term interest rates are relatively stable, and long - term interest rates have a chance for phased recovery. However, high geopolitical uncertainties and volatile oil prices may lead to continued adjustments, and the development of the Iranian situation should be monitored [104] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year TL2609 contract rose 0.45% with a settlement price of 111.18 and a trading volume of 399,800; the 10 - year T2609 contract fell 0.02% to 108.23 with a trading volume of 365,600; the 5 - year TF2609 contract rose 0.01% to 105.98 with a trading volume of 354,200; the 2 - year TS2609 contract fell 0.01% to 102.51 with a trading volume of 186,200. The prices of the top two CTD bonds for each term also changed accordingly [12] - **Market Review of Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose, while the 10 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell. The trading volumes of TS and T main contracts decreased, while those of TF and TL main contracts increased. The open interests of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased [15][21][27] 3.2 News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: On March 20, the draft financial law solicited public opinions; on March 23, the Minister of Finance emphasized investment in people; on March 24, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission focused on the development of Xiongan New Area; on March 25, the central bank conducted MLF operations; on March 26, the OECD released an economic outlook report, and there were developments in the US - Iran situation and US unemployment data [33][34][35] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, and 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed [41] - **Main Contract Spreads**: The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened, while that between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed [50] - **Treasury Bond Futures Near - Far Month Spreads**: The 10 - year contract spread narrowed, the 30 - year contract spread widened, the 5 - year contract spread significantly narrowed, and the 2 - year contract spread widened [54][61] - **Changes in Main Positions of Treasury Bond Futures**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T main contract decreased significantly [68] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: The 1 - week Shibor rate rose, while the overnight, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rose to around 1.44%. Treasury bond yields declined across the board [72] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US Treasury bonds widened [78] - **Central Bank Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases with 242.3 billion yuan due, and a net MLF injection of 50 billion yuan, resulting in a total net injection of 281.9 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate rose to around 1.44% [81] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1,583.458 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1,174.929 billion yuan, and a net financing of 408.529 billion yuan [86] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9141, depreciating 243 basis points this week, and the spread between offshore and onshore RMB narrowed [90] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose, and the VIX index rebounded significantly [96] - **A - share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year Treasury yield declined, and the A - share risk premium rose slightly [101] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: From January to February this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased significantly. However, the structural characteristics of "strong external demand, weak internal demand; strong supply, weak demand" remain, and slow terminal demand recovery may pressure the profit margins of mid - and downstream enterprises [104] - **Overseas Situation**: The prospects for the US - Iran cease - fire negotiation are unclear, which has pushed up inflation expectations. The US labor market is stable, and the market is pricing in expectations of Fed rate hikes this year [104]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on March 27, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like pure benzene and lithium carbonate had significant increases, while others such as container shipping on the European route and caustic soda declined. Futures contracts of stock indexes and treasury bonds also had different trends. The market was affected by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and seasonal factors [6][7]. - The prices of most commodities were expected to be volatile due to the tense situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which had a great impact on the supply of energy - related commodities. Some commodities were expected to have a strong - side oscillation, but risks needed to be controlled [12][14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of March 27, pure benzene and lithium carbonate rose by over 6%, styrene (EB) and ethylene glycol (EG) rose by over 5%, and methanol rose by over 4%. Container shipping on the European route fell by over 3%, and caustic soda and silver futures fell by over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also had different trends. In terms of capital flow, some contracts had capital inflows while others had outflows [6][7]. 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper (Shanghai Copper)**: In February 2026, China's copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The copper concentrate inventory was relatively low. The production of electrolytic copper increased. The demand from the copper product sector started to pick up, but the terminal data was not optimistic. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate due to the situation in the Middle East [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose by over 6% on March 27. The production in March decreased month - on - month. The import volume in February increased year - on - year. The downstream lithium battery production was in high - growth, but the retail of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year. The market was affected by the situation in Zimbabwe and the overall upward trend of non - ferrous metals, but there were potential supply risks [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The U.S. crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The Strait of Hormuz was almost closed, which led to production cuts in Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries. Although some measures were taken to relieve the supply pressure, the situation was still tense. The possibility of a U.S. - Iran negotiation was low, and the oil price was at a high - risk of fluctuation [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the planned production in April was significantly lower. The downstream demand started to recover after the Spring Festival. The inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply was affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [15]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The downstream PP开工率 increased slightly, but the demand recovery was slow. The enterprise开工率 was at a low level. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The supply was expected to decrease, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 decreased, and the downstream开工率 increased but did not return to the pre - holiday level. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The supply was expected to decrease, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [18][20]. - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 also increased but was still lower than the same period last year. The export price increased, but the inventory was still high. The industry had an anti - involution expectation, and the supply was expected to decrease if the Strait of Hormuz did not resume navigation [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price decreased on March 27. The mine production resumed smoothly, and the inventory was transferred from mines to downstream. The price decline was a correction after the previous over - rise, and the downward space was expected to be limited [22][23]. - **Urea**: The urea price rose on March 27. The domestic supply was guaranteed by high production and state - reserve goods. The downstream demand was mainly from compound fertilizer factories and other industries. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to oscillate at a narrow high level [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is in the process of repair, with most Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The macro - policy in 2026 is to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The deficit rate is planned to be around 4%, and a special ultra - long - term Treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [1]. - The financial data in February shows a pattern of "stable total volume and structural differentiation". The credit growth rate continues to decline, and the household credit demand is weak, which has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.90% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year is 9.00% with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decrease rate of 0.61% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.62, with a month - on - month increase of 0.41 and a growth rate of 0.41%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9021, with a month - on - month increase of 0.007 and a growth rate of 0.10%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.44, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.27%; DR007 is 1.44, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.34%; R007 is 1.55, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decrease rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.47, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.97%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.97% [10]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL on March 25, 2026, are 102.49 yuan, 105.91 yuan, 108.16 yuan, and 111.18 yuan respectively, with the corresponding price changes of 0.02%, 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.01% [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is 0.077 yuan, 0.097 yuan, 0.080 yuan, and 0.182 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to February, the fiscal operation started smoothly. The general public budget revenue increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.6% year - on - year. The government - funded revenue decreased by 16% year - on - year due to the drag of land sales, while the expenditure increased by 16% year - on - year due to the accelerated issuance of special bonds [2]. - On March 25, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 78.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.319%, 1.435%, 1.511%, and 1.505% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides various spread data, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between spot bond maturity and futures cross - varieties [34][35][37]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, as well as the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [44][46]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [48][61]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][60]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and two - year net basis trends of the TL main contract [64][67]. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: The repurchase rate has declined, and the Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - TACO expectations are rising, and most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - The economy still shows a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", and the foundation for the recovery of real estate and consumption is not yet solid. The financial data is neutral to positive for the bond market, but inflation expectations may disrupt short - term sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% (-0.61%) [10] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.21, with a day - on - day increase of 0.09 (+0.09%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8928, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.002 (-0.02%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.42, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.35%); DR007 is 1.41, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-1.00%); R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.55%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.34%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.34%) [11] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), and long - short position ratio (top 20) of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][14][20] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The report presents charts on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, Treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repo transaction statistics, and local bond issuance [27][28][26] 4. Spread Overview - The report shows charts on the inter - period spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [41][34][36] 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [43][44] 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [46][60] 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [55][59] 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [63][68] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Repo rates are falling, and Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]