宏观调控体制改革

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【专访】曹远征:提高工资收入的重点在于服务业转型升级
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 04:06
Group 1 - The core focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to prioritize people's livelihood issues, as China transitions towards a high-income society, leading to significant changes in consumer demand structures [1][3] - There is a notable shift in consumer preferences from basic necessities to services, with spending on food and clothing decreasing while expenditure on services increases, indicating a transition towards development-oriented and enjoyment-oriented consumption [1][4] - The demand for services in education, healthcare, and elderly care is currently high, but supply is relatively short, necessitating an upgrade in the service sector, particularly the service-oriented transformation of manufacturing [1][5] Group 2 - The aging population presents a significant challenge, with China experiencing negative population growth for three consecutive years, marking a historical turning point for the real estate and infrastructure sectors [1][3] - The shift in urban development from large-scale expansion to quality improvement and efficiency enhancement emphasizes urban renewal rather than expansion, which may lead to an oversupply of materials like steel and cement [1][3] - To enhance labor productivity in the service sector and create high-income jobs, a transformation towards productive services is essential, with education serving as a pathway to high-paying careers [3][8] Group 3 - The economic growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" should be maintained at a minimum of 5% to meet the requirements for achieving socialist modernization and to avoid falling into the "middle-income trap" [3][10] - A comprehensive policy system supporting domestic demand expansion, particularly in consumption, is necessary to ensure sustainable economic development and to address the issue of "involution" [3][13] - The need for macroeconomic policy reform is highlighted, shifting from a supply-side focus to a demand-side approach, which is crucial for addressing the persistent issue of insufficient effective demand [12][13] Group 4 - The government should implement macroeconomic policies that include increased fiscal support and relaxed monetary policies to facilitate a reasonable recovery in prices [14] - Historical experiences suggest that expanding government fiscal expenditure is essential to correct situations where nominal GDP growth lags behind actual GDP growth [14] - A new mechanism for macroeconomic regulation should be established to ensure consistency between fiscal and monetary policies, enhancing overall policy effectiveness [14]