中国经济发展将从"从对星辰大海的向往回到对柴米油盐的关注"，寻找"再通涨"假设下能够跑赢通胀的细分赛道： 此前国家通过大力发展新质生产力推动产业结构尤其是科技产业升级，长期为了国家安全并且突破GDP中等收入 陷阱等发展天花板，但短期通过提高全球制造业份额、推动出口增长来拉动整个宏观经济增长的发展模式或出现 可预见的风险，致当前消费内需等等"柴米油盐"成为了决策层眼中的大事，也才有了求是杂志文章的站位——"坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在2026年经济工作的首要位置。 落实到投资策略，我们认为26年消费投资的主轴是"再通涨"的大背量下、重点寻找那些能够跑高通胀的细分子赛 道，而这些赛道往往是供不应求，或是能够凭借稀缺性获取定价权。 我们联合各个消费团队梳理了各大消费行业中有机会跑赢通胀的细分赛道，作为后续投资选股的参考。 再通胀"假设下，哪些赛道能够跑赢CPI【东财论消费|四象限选股系列】 中国经济发展将从"从对星辰大海的向往回到对柴米油盐的关注"，寻找"再通涨"假设下能够跑赢通胀的细分赛道： 此前国家通过大力发展新质生产力推动产业结构尤其是科技产业升级，长期为了国家安全并且突破GDP中等收入 陷阱等发展 ...

此前国家通过大力发展新质生产力推动产业结构尤其是科技产业升级，长期为了国家安全并且突破GDP中等收 入陷阱等发展天花板，但短期通过提高全球制造业份额、推动出口增长来拉动整个宏观经济增长的发展模式或出 现可预见的风险，致当前消费内需等等"柴米油盐"成为了决策层眼中的大事，也才有了求是杂志文章的站位 ——"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在2026年经济工作的首要位置。 "再通胀"假设下，哪些赛道能够跑赢CPI？ 中国经济发展将从"从对星辰大海的向往回到对柴米油盐的关注"，寻找"再通涨"假设下能够跑赢通胀的细分赛 道： 此前国家通过大力发展新质生产力推动产业结构尤其是科技产业升级，长期为了国家安全并且突破GDP中等收 入陷阱等发展天花板，但短期通过提高全球制造业份额、推动出口增长来拉动整个宏观经济增长的发展模式或出 现可预见的风险，致当前消费内需等等"柴米 "再通胀"假设下，哪些赛道能够跑赢CPI？ 中国经济发展将从"从对星辰大海的向往回到对柴米油盐的关注"，寻找"再通涨"假设下能够跑赢通胀的细分赛 道： 落实到投资策略，我们认为26年消费投资的主轴是#"再通涨"的大背量下、重点寻找那些能够跑高通胀的细分 子赛 ...

以发展化解风险 对待金融安全，我们不能就安全谈安全，不能就风险谈风险，更不能一说风险就强监管。风险永远不能 消除，债务也永远不能消失，一定要用发展的眼光去看待金融安全，用发展的方法去维护金融安全。 王擎 2014年4月15日，习近平总书记在中央国家安全委员会第一次会议上首次提出总体国家安全观。2017年7 月，在第五次全国金融工作会议上，总书记又提出金融安全的概念，并在其后多次强调坚决守住不发生 系统性风险的底线。2023年召开的中央金融工作会议提出，坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路，坚持把 防控风险作为金融工作的永恒主题。 优化体制机制是安全根本 为什么我国现在如此重视金融安全呢？ 第一，和我国目前所处的阶段有关。我国所处的阶段可以用两句话来概括：一是发展面临"中等收入陷 阱"，二是转型进入关键攻坚时期。从发展角度来看，任何一国的经济都不可能永远高速增长，在进入 中等收入阶段后，成本增加和需求减少会同时发生，经济增速自然会下降，而增速一旦下降，很多潜在 的问题就会暴露出来。转型的问题更复杂，中国从1992年开始建设社会主义市场经济，历经多年，仍有 一些制度不完善、改革不到位的地方，由于制度的惯性，越到后面改革 ...

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes that supporting the private economy is essential for releasing economic vitality, while boosting resident consumption is crucial for the nation's future [1] - The relationship between public and private wealth is highlighted as a paradox, where public wealth is largely controlled by individuals, yet any wealth exceeding personal consumption ultimately contributes to social wealth [1][6] - The transition of public wealth and fiscal spending towards social welfare and citizen benefits is noted as a common trend observed in various countries after reaching certain development stages [2] Group 2 - China's public wealth remains one of the highest globally, despite the increasing share of private economy and resident wealth, with general budget fiscal expenditure accounting for approximately 20%-21% of GDP [3] - The adjustment of fiscal policy in China aims to reduce ineffective investments and promote consumption and social welfare, correcting the previous focus on investment over consumption [3] - The significant role of private enterprises in job creation and tax revenue generation is emphasized, with private enterprises expected to contribute 55%-58% of national tax revenue by 2025 [4] Group 3 - The wealth of private entrepreneurs is largely seen as social wealth, as it is often managed by others and not solely for personal consumption [5][6] - The structural change in wealth distribution in China is highlighted, with residents' disposable income projected to reach approximately 61 trillion yuan by 2025, accounting for 43.3% of GDP [7] - The future of China's high-quality economic development relies on balancing public and private wealth, enhancing resident consumption, and ensuring that social wealth translates into family well-being and consumption capacity [8]

2026年2月，哈佛大学一份报告炸了锅。 它把越南排在了未来十年全球增长预测的第一位，而中国，屈居第二。 消息一出，舆论哗然。 越南GDP增速冲到8.02%，进出口总额突破9300亿美元，数据亮得晃眼。 难道隔壁这个小兄弟，真要在中国最引以为傲的制造业赛 道上实现超车？ 这份哈佛报告，用的不是大家熟悉的GDP总量排名。 它核心看的是一个叫"经济复杂性指数"的东西，简单说，就是衡量一个国家生产的东西有多杂、技术 含量有多高。 越南自己也够努力，而且特别会"抄作业"。 它把中国工业化的发展路子学了个七七八八。 2021到2025年这五年间，越南新建了47个产业园区，其中近六成都借鉴了中资园区的运营模式：先把路、电、水这些基础设施建到位，再把同类企业聚在一 起，形成产业集聚效应。 2022年，越南修订了《投资法》，搞了个"先设企后办证"，外资进来建厂的门槛大大降低。 报告发现，越南存在严重的"能力-收入错配"，它的制造业能力和出口产品复杂度，已经远远超过了它当前人均收入该有的水平。 这意味着巨大的增长势能和"追赶空间"，所以潜力分被拉满了。 而中国因为经济体量太大、基数太高，增速自然放缓，在潜力排名上就落在了后面。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Chinese economy in its pursuit to surpass the United States, highlighting issues such as technological dependence, rising labor costs, and systemic inefficiencies [1][3][12]. Economic Performance - By 2025, China's GDP is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, achieving a growth target of 5%, which appears impressive but conceals underlying concerns [3][12]. - The manufacturing sector remains a cornerstone of the economy, yet it faces dual pressures from high-end technological blockades by the U.S. and competition from emerging economies like Vietnam and India [3][5]. High-End Manufacturing Challenges - China is significantly reliant on foreign technology, particularly in high-end sectors such as smartphones, where over half of the operating systems and core chips are dominated by U.S. and South Korean firms [4][5]. - The pursuit of advanced manufacturing technologies, such as autonomous driving chips and high-end medical devices, is hindered by both high costs and potential supply disruptions due to U.S. sanctions [5][16]. Low-End Market Issues - The competitive advantage of low-cost labor is diminishing, with labor costs in China now several times higher than in countries like India and Vietnam, leading to a migration of labor-intensive industries to Southeast Asia [7][8][14]. - Over 200 textile and electronics assembly companies relocated from the Pearl River Delta to countries like Vietnam and Indonesia last year, resulting in the loss of over a million jobs and thousands of billions in orders [8][10]. Socioeconomic Pressures - The economy is facing a "middle-income trap," characterized by rising social pressures, high unemployment rates among youth, and a lack of development momentum in rural areas [10][12]. - Young people are increasingly anxious about job security, high living costs, and competitive pressures, contributing to a challenging internal economic environment [10][12]. Structural Issues - The decline of cost advantages, severe technological dependence, and high systemic costs are identified as the three main issues plaguing the Chinese economy [12][16]. - The cost of labor, land, and environmental compliance has risen sharply, making it difficult for China to compete on price with countries like India and Vietnam [14][16]. Strategic Recommendations - To overcome these challenges, China must focus on innovation and transformation, shifting from low-end manufacturing to high-tech and brand development [20][22]. - There is a need to restructure trade relationships, targeting emerging markets along the Belt and Road Initiative to mitigate reliance on Western markets [24]. - Systemic reforms are essential to reduce operational costs and enhance resource allocation efficiency, enabling a more dynamic market environment [26][28]. - Integrating the industrial chain to create a secure and controllable ecosystem is crucial, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles, to enhance resilience against external shocks [28][30].

2026.01. 29 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 吴斯旻 封图 | AI生成 刘劲分析称，当前，中国经济正在跨越中等收入陷阱，从一个中等收入国家逐渐走向一个高收入国 家。在此过程中，中国需要从"一个科学技术含量相对低的经济发展状态"转变为"一个高科技的经济 体"。所以，国内投资者对于未来中国科技发展的信心事关对于中国未来经济走势的态度，进而影响 中国股市预期。 刘劲举例说，人工智能是未来十年最受关注的科技领域之一。过去一年里，从DeepSeek横空出世以 来，中国在人工智能领域保持高频创新。截至当年年底，有近八成受访投资者认可人工智能可以带来 颠覆式改变。而一年前，刘劲团队第一次展开调研时，认可这一观点的受访投资者在六成左右。 此 外，本期有六成左右受访投资者均认为人工智能的发展并不会带来巨大的失业浪潮，这也从侧面反映 了中国投资者对科技发展整体持积极和理性的态度。 相较于欧美多国以及日韩等国，刘劲还援引数据提到，中国研发创新的特点在于"研发支出大多数产 生在企业层面"，企业发生的研发支出在总支出中占比从2005～2014年的69.3％上升至2015～2023 年的72.4％ ...

相较于欧美多国以及日韩等国，刘劲还援引数据提到，中国研发创新的特点在于"研发支出大多数产生 在企业层面"，企业发生的研发支出在总支出中占比从2005～2014年的69.3％上升至2015～2023年的 72.4％。 企业研发占比高具有两面性。刘劲在接受第一财经采访时分析称，中国企业家做研发比较审慎，会严格 控制成本，从积极的一面看，这让中国科研转化效率始终处于国际上较高水平，创新产品的性价比也较 高，促进了科技成果"出海"；但从另一方面来看，这又导致中国在基础科研上的投入较少，后端产品创 新存在同质化，进而可能诱发部分行业出现内卷。 长江商学院投资者情绪调查每年开展三次。此次调查截至2025年12月，有效回收样本2100份左右，其 中，普通散户投资者1300 份，金融行业从业人员800份。 刘劲分析称，当前，中国经济正在跨越中等收入陷阱，从一个中等收入国家逐渐走向一个高收入国家。 在此过程中，中国需要从"一个科学技术含量相对低的经济发展状态"转变为"一个高科技的经济体"。所 以，国内投资者对于未来中国科技发展的信心事关对于中国未来经济走势的态度，进而影响中国股市预 期。 刘劲举例说，人工智能是未来十年最受关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical dialogue between Mao Zedong and Latin American communist leaders in 1959, highlighting the contrasting economic trajectories of China and Latin America over the past six decades, emphasizing China's successful industrialization and the challenges faced by Latin American countries. Group 1: Historical Context - In March 1959, Mao Zedong met with leaders from 12 Latin American countries, acknowledging China's economic struggles compared to their relatively prosperous nations [3][4]. - At that time, countries like Argentina and Venezuela were economically advanced, while China was just beginning its industrialization journey [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Development - Over the past 60 years, China has developed a comprehensive industrial system, dominating global high-speed rail and advancing in AI and quantum computing, while many Latin American countries remain stagnant or trapped in the "middle-income trap" [4][8]. - Mao's concept of "breaking the superstition" about Western superiority is identified as a key factor in China's economic transformation [4][8]. Group 3: Psychological Barriers - Mao pointed out the psychological barriers of "fear of the West" and "worship of the West" that hindered development in many countries, emphasizing the need to overcome these beliefs for independent growth [5][6]. - The article argues that the lack of a critical perspective on Western dominance has led to a failure in Latin America's industrialization efforts [6][8]. Group 4: Social Revolution - The article highlights the importance of social revolution in China's industrialization, which involved a complete restructuring of society, unlike Latin America, where feudal structures persisted [12][13]. - China's land reform and social revolution allowed for direct mobilization of resources for industrialization, contrasting with Latin America's reliance on landowners [14][16]. Group 5: Political and Economic Sovereignty - The article discusses the significance of political sovereignty and the ability to resist external pressures, particularly from the U.S., in achieving industrialization [26][29]. - It emphasizes that without a strong state capable of asserting independence, countries like those in Latin America struggle to develop high-end industries [22][29]. Group 6: Lessons for Development - The article concludes with lessons for developing countries, stressing the need to break free from outdated social structures and to challenge the notion of Western superiority to achieve true industrialization [32][33]. - It advocates for a proactive approach to industrialization, where countries must not only adopt foreign technologies but also develop their own capabilities to compete globally [24][33].

Domestic Economic Indicators - December PPI exceeded expectations, recording a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, the highest growth rate of the year[1] - January PPI is expected to narrow significantly to around -1.2% year-on-year[1] Overseas Economic Indicators - U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.6%, with non-farm payrolls adding 50,000 jobs in December, diminishing expectations for a Fed rate cut in January[1][16] - Trump plans to increase the U.S. defense budget by 50% to $1.5 trillion by 2027[1][16] Currency and Asset Market Insights - The central bank emphasized "preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations," with the probability of the RMB breaking 7 earlier than expected increasing[1] - If the RMB maintains strength, Hong Kong stocks may enter a favorable performance period[1] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - From January 4 to 9, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 14,550 billion CNY through reverse repos, with a 7-day reverse repo injection of 1,387 billion CNY[2][17] - The average funding rates for various instruments decreased, with DR001 down 0.4273 basis points to 1.2670%[3][18] Government Debt Financing - Local government debt net financing reached 1176.64 billion CNY, while national debt net financing was 4950 billion CNY, totaling 6126.64 billion CNY[19] - Upcoming planned issuance for local government bonds is 702.01 billion CNY and national bonds is 1670 billion CNY, with a net financing of approximately -3299.39 billion CNY expected[19] Market Performance Overview - A-share market showed strong bullish sentiment with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82%[32] - The Hang Seng Index demonstrated clear signs of bottom rebound, increasing by 2.35%[32]