1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has been weak recently. Although the downward pressure on prices persists and market risks remain, there is still hope for a positive impact on market sentiment from a series of macro - events in December. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound rather than short - selling. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal and lack a major contradiction, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or driving forces, and its operability is relatively low [15][98] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price was 5606 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis was 234 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 4.03%. Profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi were - 546, - 682, and - 854 yuan/ton respectively, all in the red. Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi were 6066, 6142, and 6404 yuan/ton respectively. Weekly manganese silicon output was 19.69 tons, down 0.26 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year.螺纹钢周产量207.96万吨，环比增加7.96万吨，累计同比下降约2.44%；日均铁水产量236.28万吨，环比下降0.6万吨，累计同比增加约3.44%。显性库存为46.96万吨，环比增加1.09万吨，处于同期高位 [14] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively high level, production profits continue to be in the red, production is declining, demand is mixed (low - level steel production but high - level iron water production), inventory is at a high level, and the tender volume from HeSteel Group has decreased while the tender price is stable. The manganese silicon futures price showed a weak trend last week, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price [15] 3.1.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5606 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 234 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 4.03%, at a relatively high historical level [20] 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation) remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 546 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, - 682 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, - 854 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] - **Cost**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of South African, Australian, and Gabonese manganese ores and off - grade metallurgical coke were stable. The estimated immediate production cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6066 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, 6142 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, 6404 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [27][31] - **Manganese Ore Import and Inventory**: In October, the manganese ore import volume was 310.01 tons, up 1.53 tons month - on - month and 17.17 tons year - on - year. As of November 14, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory was 426.3 tons, down 13.4 tons week - on - week. The port inventory of Australian manganese ore and high - grade manganese ore also decreased [34][37] 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.69 tons, down 0.26 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year. In October 2025, the output was 91.57 tons, up 1.73 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was down 1.23 tons year - on - year or 0.15%. HeSteel Group's tender volume in November 2025 was 16,000 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month but up 3700 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [45][56] - **Demand**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.14 tons, up 0.28 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 207.96 tons, up 7.96 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 2.44%. The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. In October 2025, the national crude steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.5 million tons month - on - month and 9.9 million tons year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 1.3 pct week - on - week [59][62][63] 3.1.5 Inventory - As of November 21, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 46.96 tons, up 1.09 tons week - on - week, at a high level compared to the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 36.3 tons, up 1.05 tons week - on - week. In October, the average available days of steel mill inventory were 15.7 days, down 0.23 days month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period [70][73][76] 3.1.6 Graphical Trends - Last week, the manganese silicon futures price rebounded at the beginning of the week and then declined rapidly, with a weekly decline of 138 yuan/ton or 2.4%. On the daily chart, it broke below the platform since September and was close to the support level of 5600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at this level; otherwise, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [82] Silicon Iron Report 3.2.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 70.19 tons, down 2.55 tons year - on - year or 3.51%. The cumulative export volume of silicon iron from January to October 2025 was 33.67 tons, down 3.1 tons year - on - year or 8.42%. The estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 11.78 tons, down 0.88 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 22 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was - 0.40%, at a low historical level. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai was - 571, - 577, and - 725 yuan/ton respectively. The weekly output of silicon iron was 10.83 tons, down 0.08 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year [97] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level, production profits continue to be in the red, production has decreased slightly, demand is mixed (high - level hot metal production but weak magnesium metal demand), inventory is at a relatively high level, and the tender volume and price from HeSteel Group have decreased. The silicon iron futures price showed a weak trend last week, remaining in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions or driving forces, and its operability is relatively low [98] 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 22 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was - 0.40%, at a low historical level [103] 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was - 571 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, - 577 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai, - 725 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton week - on - week [108] - **Cost**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of silica in the northwest region and semi - coke small materials were stable. The estimated production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5771 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, 5707 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai, 5895 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week [111][114] 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly output of silicon iron was 10.83 tons, down 0.08 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year. In October 2025, the output was 50.53 tons, up 1.71 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was up 5.52 tons year - on - year or 1.24%. HeSteel Group's tender volume of 75B silicon iron alloy in November 2025 was 2716 tons, down 240 tons month - on - month but up 1216 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [119][125] - **Demand**: As of November 21, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. In October 2025, the national crude steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.5 million tons month - on - month and 9.9 million tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 70.19 tons, down 2.55 tons year - on - year or 3.51%. As of November 21, 2025, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16,050 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The cumulative export volume of silicon iron from January to October 2025 was 33.67 tons, down 3.1 tons year - on - year or 8.42%. The estimated immediate export profit of 75B silicon iron was at a relatively low level [128][131][134] 3.2.5 Inventory - As of November 21, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 11.78 tons, down 0.88 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. In October, the average available days of steel mill inventory were 15.67 days, up 0.15 days month - on - month, and the inventory continued to increase slightly but remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period [142][145] 3.2.6 Graphical Trends - Last week, the silicon iron futures price rose sharply at the beginning of the week but failed to break the downward trend and then declined rapidly, with a weekly decline of 56 yuan/ton or 1.02%. On the daily chart, it remained in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton (the upper limit of the recent range has narrowed to 5650 yuan/ton). The price briefly broke below 5400 yuan/ton and then rebounded. The current price trend is bearish, and attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton [151]