Report on Manganese Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The current macro is a more important influencing factor, and the downward momentum of the black sector has significantly weakened after a long - term correction. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal, but it is difficult for the price to fall significantly further unless there are macro - risk events or a collapse in coal prices. It is also necessary to pay attention to possible disturbances in the manganese ore sector [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level. Manganese silicon's calculated immediate profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia at - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi at - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The calculated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly output of manganese silicon is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. The calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively high level; production profit continues to be in the red; output continues to decline; rebar output remains low while pig iron output remains high; inventory is still at a relatively high level; the tender volume of HeSteel Group has decreased, and the tender price has stabilized month - on - month. The manganese silicon futures price showed weak performance last week, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remains low. Inner Mongolia's profit is - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia's is - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi's is - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [25]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. In October, the manganese ore import volume was 310.01 tons, up 1.53 tons month - on - month and 17.17 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 2687.38 tons, a cumulative increase of 234.58 tons or 9.56% year - on - year. As of November 21, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 429.6 tons, up 3.3 tons week - on - week. Among them, the total port inventory of Australian manganese ore is 58.1 tons, up 4.8 tons week - on - week; the total port inventory of high - grade manganese ore is 100.9 tons, up 8.3 tons week - on - week [30][33][36]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 91.57 tons, up 1.73 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 1.23 tons or 0.15% lower than the same period last year [44]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and start - up rate data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in November 2025 is 16,000 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month and up 3700 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [55]. - **Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 12.17 tons, up 0.03 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 712 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate is 35.06%, down 2.6 pct month - on - month, continuing to decline [58][61][62]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises from the Steel Union's data is 36.8 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week [70][73]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In November, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills is 15.84 days, up 0.14 days month - on - month. The available days of steel mill inventory have rebounded slightly month - on - month but are still at a relatively low level in the same period [76]. 3.6. Graphical Trend Last week, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly at the lower - edge support of the range, with a weekly increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. At the daily - line level, the price showed a weak trend. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [79]. Report on Ferrosilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is of low cost - effectiveness [95]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. The calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year [94]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level; production profit continues to be in the red; output decreases slightly; pig iron output remains high, and the demand for metallic magnesium has rebounded; inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period; the steel tender volume and price have decreased month - on - month. Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to decline slowly, with a weekly decrease of 74 yuan/ton or 1.36%. At the daily - line level, the price is oscillating downward along the downward channel since July this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to its performance at the key support level of 5328 yuan/ton [95]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics [100]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week [105]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated production cost in the main production areas: Inner Mongolia is 5774 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is 5710 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is 5898 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of silica in the northwest region is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the price of semi - coke small materials is 850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [111][108]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 50.53 tons, up 1.71 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 5.52 tons or 1.24% higher than the same period last year [116]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and proportion data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in November 2025 is 2716 tons, down 240 tons month - on - month and up 1216 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [122]. - **Steel Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 7.12 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year [125]. - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the price of metallic magnesium in Fugu area is 16050 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the calculated export profit of ferrosilicon is - 13 yuan/ton, continuing to decline week - on - week and at a low level in the same period. From January to October 2025, the total overseas crude steel output is 7.13 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 10,000 tons or 0.01% year - on - year [128][131][132]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has been weak recently. Although the downward pressure on prices persists and market risks remain, there is still hope for a positive impact on market sentiment from a series of macro - events in December. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound rather than short - selling. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal and lack a major contradiction, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or driving forces, and its operability is relatively low [15][98] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price was 5606 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis was 234 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 4.03%. Profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi were - 546, - 682, and - 854 yuan/ton respectively, all in the red. Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi were 6066, 6142, and 6404 yuan/ton respectively. Weekly manganese silicon output was 19.69 tons, down 0.26 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year.螺纹钢周产量207.96万吨，环比增加7.96万吨，累计同比下降约2.44%；日均铁水产量236.28万吨，环比下降0.6万吨，累计同比增加约3.44%。显性库存为46.96万吨，环比增加1.09万吨，处于同期高位 [14] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively high level, production profits continue to be in the red, production is declining, demand is mixed (low - level steel production but high - level iron water production), inventory is at a high level, and the tender volume from HeSteel Group has decreased while the tender price is stable. The manganese silicon futures price showed a weak trend last week, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price [15] 3.1.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5606 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 234 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 4.03%, at a relatively high historical level [20] 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation) remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 546 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, - 682 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, - 854 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] - **Cost**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of South African, Australian, and Gabonese manganese ores and off - grade metallurgical coke were stable. The estimated immediate production cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6066 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, 6142 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, 6404 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [27][31] - **Manganese Ore Import and Inventory**: In October, the manganese ore import volume was 310.01 tons, up 1.53 tons month - on - month and 17.17 tons year - on - year. As of November 14, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory was 426.3 tons, down 13.4 tons week - on - week. The port inventory of Australian manganese ore and high - grade manganese ore also decreased [34][37] 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.69 tons, down 0.26 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year. In October 2025, the output was 91.57 tons, up 1.73 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was down 1.23 tons year - on - year or 0.15%. HeSteel Group's tender volume in November 2025 was 16,000 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month but up 3700 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [45][56] - **Demand**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.14 tons, up 0.28 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 207.96 tons, up 7.96 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 2.44%. The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. In October 2025, the national crude steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.5 million tons month - on - month and 9.9 million tons year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 1.3 pct week - on - week [59][62][63] 3.1.5 Inventory - As of November 21, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 46.96 tons, up 1.09 tons week - on - week, at a high level compared to the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 36.3 tons, up 1.05 tons week - on - week. In October, the average available days of steel mill inventory were 15.7 days, down 0.23 days month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period [70][73][76] 3.1.6 Graphical Trends - Last week, the manganese silicon futures price rebounded at the beginning of the week and then declined rapidly, with a weekly decline of 138 yuan/ton or 2.4%. On the daily chart, it broke below the platform since September and was close to the support level of 5600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at this level; otherwise, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [82] Silicon Iron Report 3.2.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 70.19 tons, down 2.55 tons year - on - year or 3.51%. The cumulative export volume of silicon iron from January to October 2025 was 33.67 tons, down 3.1 tons year - on - year or 8.42%. The estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 11.78 tons, down 0.88 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 22 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was - 0.40%, at a low historical level. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai was - 571, - 577, and - 725 yuan/ton respectively. The weekly output of silicon iron was 10.83 tons, down 0.08 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year [97] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level, production profits continue to be in the red, production has decreased slightly, demand is mixed (high - level hot metal production but weak magnesium metal demand), inventory is at a relatively high level, and the tender volume and price from HeSteel Group have decreased. The silicon iron futures price showed a weak trend last week, remaining in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions or driving forces, and its operability is relatively low [98] 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 22 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was - 0.40%, at a low historical level [103] 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was - 571 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, - 577 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai, - 725 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton week - on - week [108] - **Cost**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of silica in the northwest region and semi - coke small materials were stable. The estimated production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5771 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, 5707 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai, 5895 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week [111][114] 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly output of silicon iron was 10.83 tons, down 0.08 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year. In October 2025, the output was 50.53 tons, up 1.71 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was up 5.52 tons year - on - year or 1.24%. HeSteel Group's tender volume of 75B silicon iron alloy in November 2025 was 2716 tons, down 240 tons month - on - month but up 1216 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [119][125] - **Demand**: As of November 21, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. In October 2025, the national crude steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.5 million tons month - on - month and 9.9 million tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 70.19 tons, down 2.55 tons year - on - year or 3.51%. As of November 21, 2025, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16,050 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The cumulative export volume of silicon iron from January to October 2025 was 33.67 tons, down 3.1 tons year - on - year or 8.42%. The estimated immediate export profit of 75B silicon iron was at a relatively low level [128][131][134] 3.2.5 Inventory - As of November 21, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 11.78 tons, down 0.88 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. In October, the average available days of steel mill inventory were 15.67 days, up 0.15 days month - on - month, and the inventory continued to increase slightly but remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period [142][145] 3.2.6 Graphical Trends - Last week, the silicon iron futures price rose sharply at the beginning of the week but failed to break the downward trend and then declined rapidly, with a weekly decline of 56 yuan/ton or 1.02%. On the daily chart, it remained in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton (the upper limit of the recent range has narrowed to 5650 yuan/ton). The price briefly broke below 5400 yuan/ton and then rebounded. The current price trend is bearish, and attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton [151]