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历史上的黄金牛市:10%的回调并不稀奇,但牛市是如何终结的?
华尔街见闻· 2025-10-29 09:58
Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in gold prices is a common occurrence in historical bull markets, and such corrections often precede further price increases, providing opportunities for investors who have not yet allocated to gold [4][6][10]. Historical Bull Market Analysis - Since 1970, significant monthly pullbacks of over 10% have been observed during major gold bull markets, which include those starting in 1970, 1976, 1982, 1985, 2001, and 2018 [6][8]. - For instance, during the 1976 bull market, there was a nearly 12% drop in a single month, yet these corrections did not end the bull market [8][9]. - After such substantial pullbacks, gold prices have historically rebounded, with cumulative increases ranging from 50% to 200% [10][11]. Drivers of Bull Market Termination - The end of a gold bull market is typically linked to fundamental changes in macroeconomic drivers rather than technical corrections [3][14]. - Key historical drivers that led to the termination of previous bull markets include: - 1970 Bull Market: Ended as geopolitical stability reduced inflation concerns [15]. - 1976 Bull Market: Concluded due to aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation [16]. - 1982 Bull Market: Ended as the rebound from prior price drops reached its limit amid an economic recession [17]. - 2001 Bull Market: Stalled as the market perceived diminishing returns from quantitative easing [18]. - 2018 Bull Market: Concluded as post-pandemic economic reopening reduced safe-haven demand [19]. Current Market Outlook - The current bull market, which began in 2022, is driven by unconventional economic policies, including high fiscal deficits and growing debt concerns [19]. - As long as the U.S. does not revert to traditional economic policies or the Federal Reserve does not adopt a hawkish stance, the macroeconomic foundations supporting gold prices remain intact [20]. - Therefore, short-term price corrections are viewed as strategic buying opportunities rather than signals of a trend reversal [21].