来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 作者：新火研究院 声明：本文为转载内容，读者可通过原文链接获得更多信息。如作者对转载形式有任何异议，请联系我们，我们将按照作者要求进行修改。转载仅用于信息 分享，不构成任何投资建议，不代表吴说观点与立场。 2026 年新年开局，加密市场已逐步摆脱年末「流动性真空」和「大跌恐慌」阴霾，在流动性与情绪面 迎来强劲修复。随着美国现货ETF首两个交易日出现大额净流入，多平台恐慌贪婪指数也从恐慌区间回 升至中性。BTC 与 ETH 一度突破 93,000 美元及 3,200 美元关口，小币种同步集体反弹，其中 PEPE、WIF 等迷因币更是出现单周超 60% 的亮眼表现。由于短期上涨过快，市场可能存在技术性回调需求，但这 并不影响整体上涨趋势。 新火研究院认为，比特币有望在本次调整结束后冲击 10 万美元大关，该位置既是去年 10 月下跌开始后 的重要日线压力位，也是本轮行情的牛熊分界线。若能放量站稳 10 万美元，比特币有望在年内创下历 史新高。新火研究院认为，比特币有望在本次调整结束后冲击 10 万美元大关，该位置既是去年 10 月下跌开始后 的重要日线压力位，也是本轮行情的牛熊分界 ...

12月31日午后，贵金属板块变绿，黄金、白银、铂金价格纷纷下跌。 现货黄金直线下跌，一度下跌1.50%失守4300美元/盎司，现跌0.16%；现货白银一度跌超7%，现跌5.02%。 | ( W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 4331.550 ª€ | | | 4338.340 | 总量 | | 0 | | -6.790 | -0.16% 升益 | | 4338.340 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4373.499 | 持 仓 | 0 | Ar 智 | | O | | 最低价 | 4273.780 | 星 ਦੇ | 0 | 内 | | 0 | | 书时 | 居K 五日 | 日K | | 月K | 白天 | | | 量加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 4402.900 | | | | 1.49% | - 4331.810 | | | | | | | | 头一 4331.550 15:23 4331.695 | 0 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are expected to potentially exceed $100 per ounce by 2026, marking one of the largest price surges in history due to increased investment demand and tight short-term inventory [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In late December, silver futures and spot prices accelerated upward, driven by a surge in investment demand and tight short-term inventory [1] - Global silver ETF holdings have significantly increased since October, with institutions and high-net-worth individuals purchasing and hoarding physical silver, which has been a key factor in driving up spot prices [1] - December is a traditional delivery month, with COMEX silver futures deliveries expected to continue until the end of the month, and recent delivery volumes have exceeded seasonal averages [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The current tight supply situation is exacerbated by global silver inventories reaching near historical lows, making it difficult to quickly alleviate the supply constraints [1] - There is increased demand not only for near-month contracts but also for longer-dated contracts, indicating that the recent price strength reflects both short-term supply-demand imbalances and medium- to long-term price expectations [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish, with silver bulls still in control, although there are signs of fatigue in the upward trend [3] - The next key upward target for silver prices is set at $75.00, while a pressure from bears could see a test of $66.75 as a critical observation point for buying interest [3] - Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain a key driving factor, with a greater than 70% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least 50 basis points by 2026 [2]

钯金供应在中期仍然短缺，库存低于多年低位，缓冲能力较弱。另外，俄罗斯占全球矿产供应40%以 上，地缘政治或贸易风险(如美国232调查)等仍将存在。除此之外，钯金ETF持仓量虽然从量级上较铂金 ETF仍有较大差距，但在今年以来被持续增持，显示投资者情绪回暖，随着国内铂钯期货上市，投资热 情有望扩大。低库存+高供应集中度+潜在投资流入，使得钯金成为高波动性博弈产品。若关税落地或 供应链中断，价格短期反弹幅度可能较大，但缺乏长期基本面支撑，不建议重仓持有。 瑞达期货（002961）：钯金价格或加剧高位回落风险 钯期货主力跌近10%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 新湖期货 钯期货不建议重仓持有 瑞达期货 钯金价格或加剧高位回落风险 新湖期货：钯期货不建议重仓持有 12月25日盘中，钯期货主力合约封跌停板。截止发稿，钯主力合约报515.65元，跌幅9.99%。 钯金在汽车催化剂领域的过度集中化，以及新能源汽车的持续普及，使其需求端预期走弱，钯金市场正 逐步由供不应求转向供应过剩，供需格局预期较为宽松，但降息预期所带动的偏多情绪或给予价格一定 支撑，钯金当前偏低的价格可能使其重新成为具备成本优势 ...

12月12日，昨日黄金走出典型的探底回升节奏：亚盘小幅反弹后回落，在4240附近布局空单；欧盘时段 下探至日内低点4203一线后止跌企稳，空单于4210附近手动平仓，收获约30美元；美盘多头明显发力， 最高上攻至4285美元，尾盘略有回落，最终收于4278美元附近，日线录得三连阳，短线多头占优。 周五（12月12日）昨晚公布的美国上周初请失业金人数激增4.4万人，达到23.6万人，创下2020年3月疫 情以来的最大单周增幅。这一数据远超预期，与感恩节期间的低位形成巨大反差。数据有力印证了美联 储对劳动力市场降温的判断，强化了市场对于美联储未来可能继续放松货币政策的预期。 另外，美联储宣布将于今日起购买短期国债，首轮规模约400亿美元，以管理市场流动性。此举被市场 解读为变相的量化宽松，意味着向金融体系注入大量美元流动性。连同其他操作，总计约550亿美元 的"放水"，直接打压美元，并利好以美元计价的黄金。 从技术上来看，日线收出实体大阳线，价格运行于MA7/MA10上方并贴近布林带上轨，多头占优；4小 时级别均线系统维持金叉且布林带开口，短线回踩后仍有放量上攻动能。上方关注整数关口与密集成交 区的突破有效性，下 ...

自美股遭遇四月以来的最严重下跌后，企业内部人士掀起了抢购热潮。在过去30天里，美股上市公司的 高管们纷纷购入自家公司的股票，这一买入速度是自5月以来最快的。数据显示，内部人士买入与卖出 股票的比例已升至0.5。 购买量的大幅增加为那些一直遭受打压的多头投资者带来了些许慰藉。过去一周，标普500指数下跌了 3.1%，正朝着自4月以来最糟糕的一个月迈进。这些高管们正在买入股票，而其他逢低买入者则显得有 些犹豫不决。 Infrastructure Capital Advisors首席执行官兼首席投资官Jay Hatfield评价这些内部人士的购股行为称："他 们是以实际行动来证明自己的言论的。他们并非进行短线交易，而是长期投资者在利用市场回调的机会 进行投资。" Hatfield表示，近期他已增持了部分股票的仓位，原因是他看到公司内部人士在买入这些股票，比如在 迈威尔科技(MRCL.US)，该公司在发布"平淡"的业绩指引后股价有所下跌。Hatfield称，周三上午他再 次买入了该股票的大量份额。 Annex Wealth Management首席经济策略师Brian Jacobsen表示："内部人士在评估一家公司的 ...

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the gold market is primarily driven by a combination of monetary policy expectations and market sentiment [1][4] - The World Gold Council's CEO for China highlighted three main challenges in gold investment: understanding the market, timing the investment, and holding onto the asset [2] - The decline in gold prices is seen as both a risk release and an opportunity, emphasizing that gold serves as a safety net rather than a quick profit generator [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more hawkish stance has led to a stronger dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices as it is a non-yielding asset [4] - A recovery in global risk appetite, due to easing geopolitical tensions, has resulted in funds moving away from gold to riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies [4] - Technical selling pressure has emerged as many investors sought to lock in profits after a period of rising gold prices, contributing to the recent price drop [4] Group 3 - Since November, international gold prices have dropped over 5%, while domestic gold jewelry prices have decreased by approximately 20-30 yuan per gram, yet remain about 15% higher than at the beginning of the year [4] - Investors face difficulties in understanding the multitude of factors influencing gold prices, leading to impulsive buying and selling behaviors [4] - The average gold price increase over the past three years has been over 20%, but more than 60% of investors exited early, missing out on further gains [4] Group 4 - Different strategies are recommended for various types of investors: immediate buyers should consider current prices for planned purchases, long-term holders should adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach, and short-term speculators should be cautious due to market volatility [2][4] - It is crucial for all investors to choose reputable channels for purchasing gold and to be aware of buyback policies to ensure liquidity [4]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices in Asia experienced a decline, potentially influenced by technical corrections, following significant increases in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices on Friday [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Near-month WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.2% to $59.39 per barrel [1] - Near-month Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.1% to $63.70 per barrel [1] Group 2: Market Focus - The market's attention may shift to the upcoming U.S. inventory data, especially in the absence of major news [1] - Barbara Lambrecht, a commodity analyst at Deutsche Bank, indicated that if U.S. crude oil inventories remain significantly below normal levels, oil prices could rebound [1]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a significant downturn, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December dropping from 67% to below 50% in just one month [1][2] - The strong performance of the Nasdaq index contrasts sharply with the decline in Chinese concept stocks, indicating a split market sentiment [1] Impact on Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks are facing severe declines, with Alibaba down nearly 4%, JD down over 4%, and XPeng down more than 5% [1][4] - JD's recent earnings report revealed a 55% year-over-year drop in net profit, exacerbating concerns about the sustainability of growth in the e-commerce sector [4][5] - The competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market has shifted from a "blue ocean" to a "bloody battleground," leading to significant losses for companies like XPeng and NIO [5] Economic and Regulatory Concerns - The potential introduction of a property tax has raised concerns in the market, particularly as the real estate sector has not fully recovered [10] - Ongoing uncertainties regarding U.S.-China audit regulations continue to create a precarious environment for Chinese companies listed in the U.S., with some facing potential delisting [10] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have seen a dramatic drop, with futures falling 2.62% in a single day, attributed to a new tax policy that increased costs for non-investment gold [3][12] - The recent easing of geopolitical tensions has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to significant outflows from gold ETFs [12] Investor Sentiment - Investors are divided on whether to buy into the current market downturn or to remain cautious, with some viewing the low valuations of Chinese concept stocks as a buying opportunity while others prefer to shift to defensive sectors [14]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced a significant drop of approximately 8% in just two days, resulting in a market value loss exceeding $2.5 trillion, following a period of record highs and profit-taking by investors [1] Group 1: Recent Gold Price Surge - Since September, international gold prices have seen a strong upward trend, with the December 2025 futures price surpassing $4,000 per ounce and reaching a historical high of $4,014.60 per ounce on October 7 [2] - By October 16, the price peaked near $4,390 per ounce, marking a nearly 60% increase year-to-date, making the gold market a focal point for investors [2] Group 2: Analysis of the Price Drop - Analysts attribute the recent drop in gold prices to a technical correction after months of rising prices and an overbought market condition [3] - Factors contributing to the previous price surge included increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, concerns over inflation, significant gold purchases by central banks, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The recent strengthening of the dollar, easing geopolitical tensions, and optimistic expectations regarding trade disputes have prompted investors to take profits [3] - The chairman of the New York Mercantile Exchange noted that the recent price drop is a typical "technical correction," indicating that the market had been overbought for some time [3] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Market institutions have differing views on the future trajectory of gold prices, but most agree that prices are likely to remain high in the short term [4] - Citibank predicts that if the U.S. government shutdown is resolved and trade tensions ease, gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the coming weeks [4] - Goldman Sachs believes the recent drop is a technical correction and that the long-term macroeconomic factors supporting gold prices remain unchanged [4] - Morgan Stanley shares a similar view, suggesting that the price drop is a short-term adjustment rather than the end of a bull market, with ongoing support from central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [4] - Standard Chartered has raised its average gold price forecast for 2026 from $3,875 to $4,488 per ounce, citing increasing global uncertainties and strong investment demand for gold [4]