Group 1: Trump's Tariff Policy - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" impose a total of 54% tariffs on China (34% new + 20% existing), the highest tariffs on Southeast Asian countries globally, indicating potential for further increases[8] - The tariff policy is expected to create irreversible impacts on global trade order, leading to increased trade barriers among countries[8] - The U.S. tariff structure is characterized by "easy to raise, hard to lower," complicating any future tariff reductions[37] Group 2: Economic Implications - China's export and transshipment trade face dual pressures, particularly with rising costs for transshipment through ASEAN and Mexico[8] - The U.S. economy may experience short-term stagflation, with increased risks of global economic recession in the medium term[63] - Investment strategies should focus on long-term bonds, utility stocks, and consumer staples, as well as safe-haven assets like gold and military-related sectors[66] Group 3: Political and Global Order - Trump's policies reflect a fundamental challenge to the post-World War II international order, emphasizing "power diplomacy" over traditional order diplomacy[55] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with major powers accelerating manufacturing expansion amid rising global conflict risks[55] - The "de-ordering" behavior of the U.S. may inadvertently provide China with greater maneuvering space in international arenas[11]