来源：AI芯天下 前言： 参考1930年代全球关税战经验，中美作为全球最大生产国消费国，中美贸易萎缩，出口"以价换量"各国 基于本国产业保护逻辑或将开启"关税螺旋"。 作者 | 方文三 图片来源 |网 络 4月以来，美国外交政策（含关税）不确定性降低，使国际资本回流美国：黄金价格下跌、美股强于欧 洲股市、美债收益率下行。国际资本对美债的购买，以及提高债务上限通过，将减少美债"黑天鹅"风 险，利好全球债市。 美股科技龙头业绩高景气，AI需求指数级增长，"大而美"减税等利好下，纳指或延续较高的年化收益 率。对A股而言利好光模块等海 外科技映射。 叠加十五五规划重心+耐心资本投科技，国内算力、服务器、半导体等订单高景气将贯穿全年，且机构 筹码出清。 与2019年相比，今年以来中美两轮谈判，均以中方而非美方主导：中方倾向于"自上而下"，美方倾向 于"自下而上"，提升风险偏好。 未来中期时间段，美国本身对华科技（如：光刻机、发动机）等"卡脖子"进一步升级概率较低：中国稀 土反制打击关键摇摆州汽车工业。 后续中美科技、产业博弈的重点： 1）海外市场争夺与"转口技术"限制：德国"以数据保护为由"限制DeepSeek；马来西 ...

Group 1: Trump's Tariff Policy - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" impose a total of 54% tariffs on China (34% new + 20% existing), the highest tariffs on Southeast Asian countries globally, indicating potential for further increases[8] - The tariff policy is expected to create irreversible impacts on global trade order, leading to increased trade barriers among countries[8] - The U.S. tariff structure is characterized by "easy to raise, hard to lower," complicating any future tariff reductions[37] Group 2: Economic Implications - China's export and transshipment trade face dual pressures, particularly with rising costs for transshipment through ASEAN and Mexico[8] - The U.S. economy may experience short-term stagflation, with increased risks of global economic recession in the medium term[63] - Investment strategies should focus on long-term bonds, utility stocks, and consumer staples, as well as safe-haven assets like gold and military-related sectors[66] Group 3: Political and Global Order - Trump's policies reflect a fundamental challenge to the post-World War II international order, emphasizing "power diplomacy" over traditional order diplomacy[55] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with major powers accelerating manufacturing expansion amid rising global conflict risks[55] - The "de-ordering" behavior of the U.S. may inadvertently provide China with greater maneuvering space in international arenas[11]