Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of U.S. foreign policy and trade dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations, highlighting potential economic bifurcation and investment opportunities in technology sectors due to shifting geopolitical landscapes [2][5][11]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The trade relationship between the U.S. and China is experiencing a shift, with China taking a more dominant role in negotiations compared to previous years [2][5]. - The potential for a "tariff spiral" is noted, drawing parallels to historical events in the 1930s, which could impact global trade and economic conditions [1][5]. - The U.S. currently accounts for 27% of global consumption, with strong performance in the Nasdaq indicating robust corporate earnings [6][20]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The demand for AI technologies is experiencing exponential growth, benefiting U.S. tech giants and potentially impacting A-shares in sectors like optical modules [2][20]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" in China emphasizes investment in technology, with high demand for computing power, servers, and semiconductors expected to persist throughout the year [2][18]. - The article suggests a focus on defensive asset classes such as bonds and utility stocks, as well as sectors related to security and technology, in light of geopolitical tensions [8][11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The article indicates that corporate profitability may face deflationary pressures due to increased costs from tariffs and trade restrictions [8][11]. - The overall economic environment is characterized by high volatility and structural rotation, suggesting a need for strategic investment approaches [8][11]. - The anticipated return of capital to the U.S. markets is expected to favor domestic technology and debt markets, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" objectives [18][20].

Group 1: Trump's Tariff Policy - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" impose a total of 54% tariffs on China (34% new + 20% existing), the highest tariffs on Southeast Asian countries globally, indicating potential for further increases[8] - The tariff policy is expected to create irreversible impacts on global trade order, leading to increased trade barriers among countries[8] - The U.S. tariff structure is characterized by "easy to raise, hard to lower," complicating any future tariff reductions[37] Group 2: Economic Implications - China's export and transshipment trade face dual pressures, particularly with rising costs for transshipment through ASEAN and Mexico[8] - The U.S. economy may experience short-term stagflation, with increased risks of global economic recession in the medium term[63] - Investment strategies should focus on long-term bonds, utility stocks, and consumer staples, as well as safe-haven assets like gold and military-related sectors[66] Group 3: Political and Global Order - Trump's policies reflect a fundamental challenge to the post-World War II international order, emphasizing "power diplomacy" over traditional order diplomacy[55] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with major powers accelerating manufacturing expansion amid rising global conflict risks[55] - The "de-ordering" behavior of the U.S. may inadvertently provide China with greater maneuvering space in international arenas[11]