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纳斯达克证券代币化提案:SEC审批概率、时间线与全球资本市场重构
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 11:13
Group 1 - Nasdaq's proposal to the SEC marks a significant shift from the "electronic bookkeeping era" to the "on-chain settlement era" in global capital markets [3] - The proposal aims to allow stocks and ETFs to trade in both traditional digital and tokenized forms, potentially rewriting the rules of global capital flow and efficiency [3][4] - The core objectives of the proposal include enhancing efficiency with T+0 real-time settlement, expanding trading hours to 24/7, and lowering barriers for small investors through tokenization [4] Group 2 - The technical design of the proposal focuses on compatibility with traditional systems while embedding blockchain technology, ensuring that tokenized securities share the same rights as traditional securities [5] - The regulatory framework does not break existing rules but integrates blockchain tools within the traditional system, maintaining compliance with AML and KYC processes [5] Group 3 - Institutional investors have shown positive feedback towards the proposal, with major firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley initiating tokenized securities trading simulations [6] - A survey indicated that 62% of U.S. retail investors are willing to try tokenized stock trading, attracted by real-time settlement and 24/7 trading capabilities [6] Group 4 - The SEC's historical approval logic has shifted from risk-averse prohibition to compliance-guided openness, as evidenced by the approval of Bitcoin ETFs after a lengthy denial period [9][10] - The SEC's 2025 policy shift under new leadership has created a favorable regulatory environment for Nasdaq's proposal, emphasizing support for tokenization as a natural evolution of financial innovation [11][12] Group 5 - The approval timeline for Nasdaq's proposal is projected to conclude by mid-2026, with a high probability of approval exceeding 80% based on current policy support and market demand [15][8] - The anticipated impact on global capital markets includes a significant increase in trading volume and liquidity, with estimates suggesting a potential daily trading volume exceeding $3 billion upon launch [16][17] Group 6 - The tokenization of securities is expected to reinforce the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global capital flows, with the use of dollar-pegged stablecoins facilitating cross-border transactions [19] - Global exchanges are likely to engage in a digitalization race, with Nasdaq's initiative prompting other markets, such as Hong Kong and the EU, to accelerate their own tokenization efforts [20] Group 7 - Emerging markets may face increased capital outflow pressures as tokenization lowers barriers for investors seeking to access U.S. markets, potentially exacerbating regulatory challenges [22] - Developed countries will experience competitive pressures in their capital markets, necessitating rapid advancements in their own tokenization processes to retain investor interest [23] Group 8 - The impact on China's capital markets includes potential capital outflow risks and intensified competition for technology company listings, as U.S. tokenization may attract Chinese firms seeking better financing opportunities [24][25] - Hong Kong's capital markets may face challenges in maintaining their status as an international financial hub, with the risk of capital diversion to tokenized U.S. securities [28][29]