实物工作量超预期

Search documents
建筑建材行业周报:看好低估滞涨的大建筑蓝筹股-20250817
Western Securities· 2025-08-17 06:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on undervalued large construction blue-chip stocks, particularly in the building materials sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The construction and building materials sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with large blue-chip stocks remaining stagnant despite an active market for smaller stocks. Key companies like China Chemical, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction are highlighted for their low price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios [1][3]. - Infrastructure investment has shown signs of weakness, with July 2025 seeing a year-on-year decline of 5.07%, marking the first negative growth since February 2022. The overall fixed asset investment for the first seven months of 2025 is up by 1.6% [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in cement due to rising coal costs and a shift in market sentiment towards price hikes, particularly in regions like Chongqing and Guizhou [2][34]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The construction index fell by 0.58% while the building materials index rose by 2.13% during the week of August 11-15, 2025. Year-to-date, the construction index has increased by 6.75% [3][9]. - The report notes that the building materials sector is currently undervalued, with a PE ratio of 8.88 compared to the overall A-share market PE of 16.62 [3][15]. Special Bonds and Funding - As of August 15, 2025, the issuance of new local government special bonds amounted to 19.034 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.73% week-on-week. Cumulatively, 2.8369 trillion yuan has been issued this year, a 39.69% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2][21]. Cement Industry Data - National cement prices increased by 0.2% week-on-week, with significant price hikes observed in regions like Chongqing and Guizhou. The average national cement price is reported at 340.3 yuan per ton [34][35]. - Cement production for the first seven months of 2025 totaled 958 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [1][46]. Company Orders and Valuation - The report strongly recommends focusing on major construction blue-chip stocks such as China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, and China State Construction Engineering, as well as companies involved in overseas projects [3][15].