Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF is experiencing a tight balance between bullish and bearish sentiments, with significant trading activity and liquidity observed in recent days [1]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of October 30, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) had a turnover rate of 1.26% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 398 million yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the average daily trading volume of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 10.059 billion yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF is reported at 31.434 billion yuan, with a total of 264 million shares outstanding [1]. - The net inflow of funds into the 30-year Treasury ETF is recorded at 418 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - On October 30, the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 342.6 billion yuan with an interest rate of 1.40%, while 212.5 billion yuan of reverse repos were set to mature on the same day [1]. - According to CITIC Securities, the central bank's decision to resume government bond trading is likely aimed at supporting fiscal efforts, ensuring ample liquidity for financial institutions by year-end, and reinforcing the central bank's control over the yield curve [1]. - The short-term outlook for the bond market appears to be downward, although the long-term operational logic remains largely unchanged [1]. - The overall bond market faced pressure in the third quarter, with recent widening of the yield curve attributed to a decline in institutional trading preferences and marginal changes in growth expectations [1].

格隆汇10月28日丨中信证券认为，央行行长潘功胜在2025金融街论坛年会上发表主题演讲，宣布恢复国 债买卖，或主要源于配合财政发力、呵护金融机构年底流动性充裕，以及强化央行对曲线形态调控力度 的意图，宽货币取向再确认。预计债市短期下行空间打开，但中长期运行逻辑没有太大改变。参考三季 度债市整体承压，10年期国债收益率震荡上行，期间债市曲线向熊陡演绎，国债期限利差持续走阔，尤 其30Y-10Y抬升至近两年高位水平。近期期限利差的走阔，在短端利率整体稳定的情况下，主要缘于机 构交易偏好的下降以及对未来增长预期的边际变化。长期来看，考虑到流动性溢价消除带来的影响，我 们认为当前期限利差的水平已经调整较为充分，在目前点位进一步上行的空间或较为有限。 ...