Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF is experiencing a tight balance between bullish and bearish sentiments, with significant trading activity and liquidity observed in recent days [1]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of October 30, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) had a turnover rate of 1.26% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 398 million yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the average daily trading volume of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 10.059 billion yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF is reported at 31.434 billion yuan, with a total of 264 million shares outstanding [1]. - The net inflow of funds into the 30-year Treasury ETF is recorded at 418 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - On October 30, the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 342.6 billion yuan with an interest rate of 1.40%, while 212.5 billion yuan of reverse repos were set to mature on the same day [1]. - According to CITIC Securities, the central bank's decision to resume government bond trading is likely aimed at supporting fiscal efforts, ensuring ample liquidity for financial institutions by year-end, and reinforcing the central bank's control over the yield curve [1]. - The short-term outlook for the bond market appears to be downward, although the long-term operational logic remains largely unchanged [1]. - The overall bond market faced pressure in the third quarter, with recent widening of the yield curve attributed to a decline in institutional trading preferences and marginal changes in growth expectations [1].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the central bank governor Pan Gongsheng at the 2025 Financial Street Forum regarding the resumption of government bond trading is primarily aimed at supporting fiscal efforts, ensuring ample liquidity for financial institutions by year-end, and reinforcing the central bank's control over the yield curve, confirming a loose monetary stance [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The short-term outlook for the bond market has opened up for downward movement, although the long-term operational logic remains largely unchanged [1] - The overall bond market faced pressure in the third quarter, with the 10-year government bond yield experiencing fluctuations upward [1] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened, with the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds reaching its highest level in nearly two years [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Spread - The widening of the yield spread in recent periods, despite stable short-term interest rates, is mainly attributed to a decline in institutional trading preferences and marginal changes in future growth expectations [1] - Long-term considerations suggest that the current level of the yield spread has adjusted sufficiently, indicating limited further upward movement potential at this point [1]