北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）8月中国人民银行中期借贷便利（MLF）操作再度加量。根据人民银行官网，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年8月25日人民银 行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 期。 除了通过MLF投放中期流动性外，人民银行在8月8日、8月15日分别开展了7000亿元、5000亿元买断式逆回购操作。截至8月22日，当月买断式逆回购实现 北京商报记者进一步对比发现，在5月降准释放长期流动性约10000亿元之后，近三个月公开市场中期流动性持续处于净投放状态，且8月净投放规模显著扩 大。 另据Wind数据，在8月25日—29日的一周里，人民银行公开市场将有20770亿元逆回购到期、3000亿元MLF到期，以及5000亿元6个月期、4000亿元3个月期 买断式逆回购到期。按照对应数据计算，本月MLF操作实现净投放3000亿元。自2025年3月开始，人民银行连续第六个月加量续作MLF，整体符合市场预 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青从三方面分析了原因。王青指出，现阶段处于政府债券持续发行高峰期，同时监管层也在引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力 度。人民银行持续注入中期流动性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the document. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the history, overseas experiences, and future prospects of China's central bank's treasury bond trading. It analyzes the development of China's central bank's treasury bond trading from 2024 to 2025, draws lessons from the practices of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, and discusses the possible future evolution of the tool, including operation mechanisms, targets, and implementation rhythms, as well as potential optimization directions for supporting measures [2][48][94]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Treasury Bond Trading History Review - **Before 2024**: The central bank mainly participated in treasury bond trading through repurchase agreements, providing short - term liquidity to the market and smoothing out fluctuations in the capital market. Direct purchases of treasury bonds were rare, mainly for coordinating the issuance of special treasury bonds [12]. - **In 2024**: The central bank began to include treasury bond trading in open - market operations. In August, it carried out "buying short and selling long" operations, with a net purchase of 1 billion yuan in treasury bonds. The operations were mainly for base money injection and liquidity management, with buying aiming to support fiscal efforts and selling to prevent bond market risks [22][25]. - **In the first half of 2025**: In January, the central bank announced a temporary suspension of open - market treasury bond purchases, considering the controllable supply pressure of government bonds at the beginning of the year and the availability of alternative tools for liquidity management. The market's speculation about the resumption of operations emerged in June, but it did not materialize, mainly due to the marginal improvement in the supply - demand relationship of government bonds, the central bank's enhanced precision in liquidity regulation, and concerns about bond market risks [38][40][43]. 3.2. Overseas Insights into Central Bank Bond Purchases - **Federal Reserve's "Scarce Reserves" Framework**: Before 2008, the Federal Reserve used this framework, where treasury bond trading was mainly for liquidity management. Through small - scale open - market treasury bond trading, the Federal Reserve could adjust the reserve level of the banking system, affecting the federal funds rate and other interest rates, forming a transmission chain of "open - market operations - reserve scale - FFR - other interest rates" [48]. - **Federal Reserve's Treasury Bond Trading with Quantitative Easing and Twist Operations**: From 2008 to 2014, the Federal Reserve implemented large - scale asset purchase programs, aiming to influence the yield curve by changing the structure of purchased assets while maintaining a loose liquidity environment. It carried out operations such as lowering short - term interest rates, buying long - term bonds, and selling short - term bonds, and managing market expectations [68][71]. - **Bank of Japan's YCC Practice**: In 2016, the Bank of Japan introduced YCC on the basis of negative interest rates. It controlled the short - end through negative interest rates and set a target for the 10 - year treasury bond yield, promising unlimited buying and selling of 10 - year treasury bonds to achieve the target range. This enhanced the central bank's ability to control the yield curve, alleviated concerns about policy sustainability and market liquidity, and strengthened inflation expectations [74][76]. 3.3. Outlook on Central Bank Bond Purchases - **Current Situation**: Compared with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, the scale of treasury bonds held by the People's Bank of China is relatively low. Commercial banks are the main holders of treasury bonds in China, accounting for over 60% of the total. The reasons include the short implementation time of treasury bond trading, differences in tool positioning, and the limited liquidity of the treasury bond market [6][78][88]. - **Possible Future Deductions**: - **Operation Mechanism**: There is a possibility of making operations more transparent by announcing operation time, quantity, bond maturity, and pricing standards in advance, following the trend of expected management in monetary policy tools [94]. - **Operation Target**: Treasury bond trading is mainly for liquidity management and may also have the function of regulating the yield curve. Net purchases to inject liquidity are still the general direction, and attention should be paid to the term structure of the treasury bond market and the central bank's holdings [95]. - **Implementation Rhythm**: The supply pressure of government bonds will decrease in July and peak again in August - September. This could be a good observation window for restarting treasury bond trading operations [97]. - **Supporting Measures**: Potential optimization directions include increasing the proportion of discount treasury bond issuance, improving the management of treasury bond underwriters, guiding commercial banks to reduce the proportion of bonds held in the AC account, and expanding the participants in the treasury bond derivatives market [98].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the history, current situation, and future prospects of China's central bank's treasury bond trading. It analyzes the operations and impacts of treasury bond trading in 2024 and 2025, draws lessons from overseas central banks' bond - buying practices, and discusses the future evolution of China's treasury bond trading tool [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bond Trading History Review - **Before 2024**: The central bank mainly participated in treasury bond trading through repurchase agreements to inject short - term liquidity. It rarely directly bought treasury bonds, and the few purchases were mainly to support special treasury bond issuance [10] - **In 2024**: The central bank started to include treasury bond trading in open - market operations. It conducted "buy - short and sell - long" operations, with a net purchase of 100 billion yuan in August. The operations aimed at liquidity management and curve regulation [19][20] - **In the first half of 2025**: The central bank suspended open - market treasury bond purchases in January. The reasons included controllable government bond supply pressure, the availability of alternative tools, and the need to avoid strong market expectations. In June, market discussions about restarting the operation emerged, but it did not happen [28][32] 2. Overseas Insights on Central Bank Bond - Buying - **Fed's "Scarce Reserves" Framework**: Before 2008, the Fed used this framework. Treasury bond trading was a liquidity management tool, and small - scale trading could affect the federal funds rate and other interest rates [39] - **Fed's Bond - Buying with QE and Twist Operations**: From 2008 - 2014, the Fed used large - scale asset - purchase programs and twist operations to influence the yield curve and long - term interest rates [52][53] - **BOJ's YCC Practice**: Since 1999, Japan has implemented QE. In 2016, it introduced YCC to control the yield curve more precisely, aiming to achieve inflation targets and address negative impacts of previous policies [55][57] 3. Outlook on Central Bank Bond - Buying - **Current Situation**: China's central bank holds a relatively low proportion of treasury bonds compared to the Fed and the BOJ. Commercial banks are the main holders of Chinese treasury bonds [63] - **Reasons for the Difference**: The short implementation time of treasury bond trading in China, different tool positioning, and limited treasury bond liquidity are the main reasons [76] - **Future Deduction**: In operation, there may be more expectation management. The tool will focus on liquidity management and curve regulation. The restart window may be around August - September. There will also be optimization of supporting measures [81][83][84]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown positive performance with a recent price increase and significant trading activity, indicating strong market interest and liquidity. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 15, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera increased by 0.34%, with a latest price of 112.53 yuan [1] - Over the past six months, the ETF has accumulated a total increase of 1.30% [1] - The ETF's latest scale reached 9.115 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [2] - The latest share count for the ETF is approximately 81.30 million, also a one-year high [3] Group 2: Market Activity - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 14.88% with a trading volume of 1.36 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 3.023 billion yuan [1] - There was a net inflow of 718 million yuan into the ETF, with four out of the last five trading days showing positive net inflows totaling 1.631 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Financial Data Insights - As of June 2025, the total social financing stock was 430.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [3] - The balance of various RMB loans was 268.56 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [3] Group 4: Investment Trends - Leverage funds have been actively buying into the ETF, with a net purchase of 16.72 million yuan on the highest single day [5] - The ETF has shown a one-year net value increase of 13.47%, ranking 5th out of 410 index bond funds [5] Group 5: Risk and Fee Structure - The maximum drawdown since the ETF's inception is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [6] - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [7] Group 6: Tracking Accuracy - The ETF has a tracking error of 0.036% over the past month, closely following the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index [8]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF Boshi (159396) shows positive performance and liquidity, with a recommendation for investors to focus on specific bond durations and types for potential gains [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 3, 2025, the credit bond ETF Boshi increased by 0.06%, with a latest price of 101.24 yuan [3]. - Over the past three months, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.16%, ranking 2nd out of 4 comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 12.316 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception, and it ranks 2nd among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's share count reached 12.2 million, also a new high in the last three months, maintaining the 2nd position among comparable funds [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 60.27% during trading, with a transaction volume of 7.429 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. - The average daily transaction volume over the past month was 4.678 billion yuan, ranking 1st among comparable funds [3]. Group 3: Fund Inflows and Returns - The ETF experienced a net inflow of 22.251 million yuan recently, with a total of 690 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days, averaging 138 million yuan per day [4]. - Since its inception, the ETF has had a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 4 months, with a profit percentage of 80% and a profit probability of 73.12% [4]. - The ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past month was 1.06, placing it in the top 2 out of 4 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [4]. Group 4: Risk and Fee Structure - The maximum drawdown since inception for the ETF was 0.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.10% [4]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4]. - The tracking error for the ETF year-to-date is 0.009%, indicating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [4]. Group 5: Market Context - The People's Bank of China reported liquidity injections in June, including a net injection of 535.9 billion yuan through short-term reverse repos [3]. - Industry experts remain optimistic about the overall credit bond market in 2025, suggesting a focus on 3-5 year bonds with higher valuations and liquidity for tactical trading [3].

Report Information - Report Date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - After the month - end, the funds continued to be loose, and treasury bond futures recovered and rose. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board. The short - end declined by 1 - 2bp, and the long - end fluctuated less than 1bp. The funds became looser after the quarter - end, and there was a net withdrawal in the open market. In July, short - term bond varieties in the bond market may have more certainty. The short - term 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may perform relatively better [8][9][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures recovered and rose due to loose funds. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with the short - end down 1 - 2bp and the long - end fluctuating less than 1bp. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield reported 1.6385%, down 0.35bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: After the quarter - end, funds became looser, and there was a net withdrawal in the open market. There were 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan. Short - term inter - bank fund rates declined across the board [10] - **Conclusion**: In July, short - term bond varieties in the bond market may have more certainty. Although the marginal slowdown of export rush still supports the economy, the progress of tariff negotiations is slow but there is no further conflict escalation. The tone of the Politburo meeting in July may continue that of April, and the policy stimulus may be limited. The supply pressure in July has increased significantly, but there is a possibility that the central bank will restart treasury bond trading, which may support the stable and loose funding situation. The short - term 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may perform relatively better [11][12] 2. Industry News - The Minister of Finance called on developed countries to fulfill official development assistance commitments and climate financing obligations, improve the voice of developing countries in the international financial architecture, and promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation [13] - Sichuan Province issued measures to support urban village and dilapidated building renovation projects to seek central budget investment and special bonds, and strive for central budget investment and ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds [13] - In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rebounded, indicating that China's economic prosperity remained in the expansion range [13] - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation and improving its forward - looking, targeted, and effectiveness. It also proposed to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land [14] - A central bank monetary policy committee member said that virtual assets, digital assets, and traditional financial assets will coexist in the long term. Digital assets are a major development trend, and there is a possibility of issuing stablecoins pegged to the offshore RMB in Hong Kong [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on July 2, including contract prices, trading volumes, and positions. It also mentions the spread between different contracts and the trend of the main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report shows the changes in SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rate, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repo rate [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report includes the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) [34]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategy of "buying rumors and selling news," suggesting that investors should trust their expectations when they arise and act accordingly, while being skeptical when actual news is released [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The current funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with long-term bond yields experiencing a slight decline [2]. - The central bank conducted a 197.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a total of 183.3 billion yuan net withdrawal due to maturing reverse repos and MLF [2]. - The overnight funding rates are slightly down, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.52% [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed cautious sentiment in the morning, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.64% and peaking at 1.6475% before fluctuating down to around 1.634% [4]. - The market is influenced by rumors of the resumption of government bond trading and the inclusion of short-term government bonds in reserve requirements [4]. - The bond futures market has shown signs of recovery after a period of stagnation, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 3: Price Movements - The second-hand housing prices have returned to levels seen in early 2017, indicating a significant market adjustment [5]. - The price of a bottle of 25-year Flying Moutai has dropped to 1960 yuan, marking the first time it has fallen below the 2000 yuan psychological barrier since 2021 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy despite a net withdrawal of liquidity through reverse repos in May, indicating a stable approach to managing market liquidity [1][4]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In May, the PBOC conducted a total of 700 billion yuan in reverse repo operations, with 400 billion yuan for 3-month (91 days) and 300 billion yuan for 6-month (182 days) maturities [3]. - The net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan in reverse repos does not imply a tightening of market liquidity, as the PBOC has various channels for injecting liquidity, including Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and structural tools [1][4]. Group 2: MLF and Liquidity Management - The MLF has seen a net injection of 375 billion yuan in May, reflecting the PBOC's commitment to maintaining medium-term liquidity [1][4]. - The PBOC's reliance on MLF has increased since the introduction of fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price auctions for MLF operations, which helps stabilize expectations for financial institutions [4]. Group 3: Government Bond Transactions - The PBOC has not conducted any government bond transactions since January, with expectations to resume operations in July or August, depending on market conditions [5][6]. - The resumption of government bond transactions is seen as urgent to enhance the PBOC's holdings of government debt and to support the establishment of a sovereign credit model for currency issuance [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the upward limit of equity assets to be opened further through three emerging clues: government investment acceleration, supply-demand relationship management, and improvements in US-China trade relations. Group 1: Government Investment - Government investment is expected to accelerate following the issuance of special bonds and project implementation, with significant activity anticipated in May. The issuance of special bonds began on April 24, and the acceleration of project implementation is expected to lead to increased construction activity, particularly in urban renewal projects [2][4]. - The economic data from April indicates that while equipment and appliance sales are strong, the real estate and narrow infrastructure sectors are lagging, with fixed asset investment showing a year-on-year increase of only 3.6% [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Relationship - New signals from policies indicate a shift towards managing low prices and addressing "involution" competition. The central bank's report emphasizes a transition from managing high prices to low prices, aiming for high-quality development and preventing disorderly competition [3]. - The past two years have seen nominal growth rates lag behind actual growth, leading to higher real interest rates, which in turn dampen investment and consumption. Improving the supply-demand balance is seen as a pathway to raise the price level and stimulate economic activity [3]. Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - Recent communications between US and Chinese officials following the Geneva talks are viewed as a positive signal for improving macroeconomic uncertainty. Enhanced relations could lead to simultaneous improvements in the economic fundamentals and risk appetite [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - The week of May 22 saw significant upward pressure on risk-free rates in the US, leading to a "risk-off" sentiment in global markets. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all recorded declines of approximately 2.5% [5]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index outperformed global markets, rising by 1.1%, while A-shares showed mixed performance with a slight decline in technology stocks [5][6]. Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market displayed divergence, with gold leading gains amid geopolitical risks and tightening liquidity. Gold prices rose by 5.0% for London gold and 5.6% for COMEX futures, while copper also saw a slight increase [6][7]. - Oil prices adjusted downwards, with Brent crude futures falling by 1.0% during the same period [6]. Group 6: Economic Indicators - Industrial production in May is expected to show resilience, with a year-on-year growth estimate of 5.99%, supported by export demand. The actual and nominal GDP growth rates for May are projected at 5.24% and 4.10%, respectively [14]. - Consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) estimates indicate slight declines, with PPI expected to be -2.98% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector [15][16]. Group 7: Policy Developments - The State Council approved the "Manufacturing Green Low-Carbon Development Action Plan (2025-2027)," emphasizing the need for green technology innovation and the transformation of traditional industries [24]. - The government is focusing on addressing "involution" competition to promote healthy industrial development and enhance market competition [25].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the resumption of Treasury bond trading by the central bank. It points out that the release of the "2025 Q1 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" has heightened market expectations. The central bank's Treasury bond trading aims at base - money injection and liquidity management, but it may have a side - effect on bond yields. To minimize this side - effect, optimization can be considered in terms of timing, issuance methods, and mechanism arrangements [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Timing - Buying should be done when the supply (or supply expectation) of the bond market significantly increases and the market fears oversupply. At this time, the market is less sensitive to the central bank's buying operations. However, if the market is in a long - term "bull market thinking", the central bank's operations may become passive. Also, the disclosure of operation information and market expectations can affect the bond market [2]. 2. Issuance Methods - Treasury bonds can be issued to individual members of the Treasury bond underwriting syndicate on a targeted basis and then transferred to the central bank. This method was used in 2007 when 1.35 trillion yuan of the over 1.5 trillion yuan of special Treasury bonds were issued in this way. It won't disrupt the bond market's supply - demand balance or trigger unreasonable expectations of a rapid decline in yields [2]. 3. Mechanism Arrangements - The timing, scale, and maturity of Treasury bond issuance should be jointly determined by the Ministry of Finance and the central bank. This arrangement can maintain the stable development of the bond market and control the issuance cost of government bonds [3].