截至2025年10月9日 14:09，30年国债ETF(511090)上涨0.26%，最新价报117.7元。流动性方面，30年国 债ETF盘中换手19.63%，成交59.91亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至9月30日，30年国债ETF近1 月日均成交96.09亿元。 规模方面，30年国债ETF最新规模达304.84亿元。资金流入方面，30年国债ETF最新资金净流入1.39亿 元。拉长时间看，近4个交易日内有3日资金净流入，合计"吸金"2.97亿元。 有券商表示，短期来看，在'反内卷'政策驱动下，大宗商品和权益市场料持续走强，市场风险偏好有望 延续。预计国内央行将继续实施'适度宽松'的货币政策，保持市场流动性合理充裕，为经济结构调整提 供适宜的金融环境，这将对债券市场构成一定支撑。 30年国债ETF紧密跟踪中债-30年期国债指数(总值)财富指数，中债-30年期国债指数隶属于中债总指数 族系，该指数成分券由在境内公开发行上市流通的发行期限为30年且待偿期25-30年（包含25年和30 年）的记账式国债组成（不包含特别国债），可作为投资该类债券的业绩比较基准和标的指数。 风险提示：本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发 ...

行情异动概述 2025年9月30日国债期货市场出现显著盘中异动，午盘各期限合约集体反弹上涨，与开盘时的普遍下跌 形成鲜明对比。具体来看，当日开盘时市场情绪偏谨慎，30年期主力合约低开0.17%，10年期、5年期 和2年期主力合约均微跌0.01%；而到午盘时段，各合约全面翻红，且涨幅呈现明显分化特征12。 各期限合约午盘表现差异显著： 值得注意的是，30年期国债期货主力合约当日波动较大，盘中曾出现0.30%的下跌，最终午盘收涨 0.07%，显示长端品种多空博弈激烈3。与此同时，2年期国债期货主力合约价格稳定在102.368元，涨跌 值0.036，体现了短端市场的相对平稳4。这种差异化行情为后续分析市场资金流向与情绪变化提供了重 要观察窗口。 9月召开的央行三季度货币政策委员会例会（总第110次）释放出强烈的逆周期调节信号。相较于二季 度"保持经济稳定增长"的表述，本次例会明确提出"** 促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"，并强 调" 加强货币政策调控 "" 保持流动性充裕 **"，要求"根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况， **灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏 **"910。 政策面驱动因素 今日国债期货行 ...

Group 1 - The total scale of public funds in China reached a historical high of 36.25 trillion yuan by the end of August, marking the fifth record high this year and the first time surpassing 36 trillion yuan [1][2] - The significant increase in public fund scale was driven by a notable recovery in investor confidence, with stock funds growing by over 600 billion yuan in August alone, primarily led by stock ETFs [1][2] - Despite the overall growth, mixed funds faced redemption pressure, indicating some investors opted for a "sell upon breakeven" strategy [1][2] Group 2 - In the open-end fund category, stock fund scale reached 5.55 trillion yuan, up from 4.92 trillion yuan at the end of July, while mixed funds grew to 4.16 trillion yuan from 3.83 trillion yuan [2] - Stock funds experienced both scale and share growth, indicating that investors continued to increase their positions amid rising market values, with stock ETFs contributing significantly to this growth [2][3] - Conversely, bond funds saw a slight decline in scale to 7.21 trillion yuan from 7.24 trillion yuan, reflecting ongoing volatility in the bond market [2][3] Group 3 - The bond market has shown fluctuations, with several bond funds reporting negative returns in August, leading to a decrease in both scale and share for most bond funds [3] - However, certain types of bond ETFs, such as convertible bond ETFs and 30-year treasury bond ETFs, experienced growth, contributing over 480 billion yuan in scale increase [3] - As of the end of August, there were 164 public fund management institutions in China, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [3] Group 4 - The A-share market has been on an upward trend, supported by favorable policies, the rise of technology growth sectors, and improved liquidity, leading to a new upward cycle [4] - The current valuation levels in the A-share market remain reasonable, with a recovery in corporate earnings still in its early stages [4] - Future investment opportunities may arise from the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to bolster performance in related industries [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the growth rate of the real - sector's liabilities expected to decline to around 8% by the end of the year, and the government - sector's liabilities to around 12.5%. The bond market will not enter a trending bear market, and yields are expected to oscillate at low levels. Risk preference repair is basically in place, and future risk preference will oscillate within a range with earnings. The recommended asset - allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value stocks. In the de - leveraging cycle, the dividend - type stocks in the A + H market are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [3][4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In August 2025, the real - sector's liability growth rate was 8.9%, down from 9.1% previously, and is expected to drop to around 8.7% in September. The government's liability growth rate was 15.0% at the end of August, and is expected to decline to around 14.5% in September. The central bank aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and large - scale debt resolution reduces local government financing costs. The money market tightened marginally last week, and there is a higher probability of a temporary relaxation in October [3][4]. - **Asset Side**: The physical volume data in August was weaker than in July. The annual nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%, and it needs to be further observed whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [5]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Overall Performance**: Last week, the money market tightened marginally, and the stock - bond market was generally stable, with value stocks slightly outperforming. The ten - year bond yield rose 1 basis point to 1.88%, and the one - year bond yield remained stable at 1.39%. The wide - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 0.66pct last week and - 8.04pct since July [7]. - **Risk Preference and Asset Allocation**: Risk preference repair is basically in place, and future risk preference will oscillate within a range with earnings. The recommended asset - allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value stocks. In the next two weeks, the recommended allocation is the SSE 50 index (60% position), the CSI 1000 index (20% position), and the 30 - year Treasury bond ETF (20% position) [9][10]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. The sectors with the largest increases were power equipment, non - ferrous metals, electronics, environmental protection, and media, while the sectors with the largest declines were social services, comprehensive, commercial retail, light manufacturing, and textile and apparel [33]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of September 26, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, computers, machinery, and automobiles, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel. The industries with the largest increase in crowding were power equipment, electronics, non - ferrous metals, computers, and media [34]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, the PE (TTM) of power equipment, non - ferrous metals, electronics, environmental protection, and media increased the most, while that of social services, comprehensive, commercial retail, light manufacturing, and textile and apparel increased the least. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banking, insurance, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and consumer electronics [39][40]. - **Industry Prosperity**: External demand generally rebounded, with the global manufacturing PMI rising from 49.7 to 50.9 in August. Domestic demand showed mixed signals, with second - hand housing prices falling and some quantity indicators rising and falling. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries increased from May to August and declined slightly in September [44]. - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the fourth week of September, most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of September 26, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.21 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [60]. - **Industry Recommendation**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [11].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has undergone a downward adjustment, with the latest quote at 118.16 yuan, indicating active market trading and liquidity [1] Market Performance - The 30-year Treasury ETF recorded a turnover rate of 17.38% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 5.345 billion yuan, reflecting a vibrant market [1] - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 10.254 billion yuan [1] Fund Size - According to Wind data, the latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF is 30.895 billion yuan [1] Market Conditions - The bond market has not shown significant recovery as of September, with long-term bond yields remaining volatile and the yield curve spread continuing to widen [1] - New public fund fee regulations and expectations of central bank bond purchases have emerged, leading to a downward adjustment in long-term yields after breaking below 1.8%, followed by a period of volatility [1] Economic Outlook - Dongwu Securities indicates that the yield has returned to the upper range of the volatility zone, with a notable weakening of the stock-bond relationship. The impact of quarter-end fund redemptions and banks realizing profits is gradually diminishing [1] - The fundamental economic data remains weak, and expectations for the resumption of Treasury trading are increasing, alongside a higher probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates within the year. However, significant upward movement in the bond market is limited in the short term [1] Index Tracking - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index (Total Value) which is part of the China Bond Index family. The index consists of publicly issued and tradable 30-year government bonds with a remaining maturity of 25-30 years, excluding special government bonds, serving as a performance benchmark for this category of bonds [1]

Group 1 - The second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs will be listed on September 24, with 14 public funds participating in the issuance, following the first batch launched on July 17 [1] - The total issuance scale of the second batch of 14 Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs reaches 40.786 billion yuan, with 13 of them exceeding 2.9 billion yuan each [1] - The total scale of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs has surpassed 170 billion yuan, while the overall scale of bond ETFs has exceeded 600 billion yuan for the first time [1] Group 2 - The largest bond ETFs include Convertible Bond ETF at 59.218 billion yuan, Short-term Bond ETF at 58.516 billion yuan, and Policy Financial Bond ETF at 45.615 billion yuan [3] - Other notable bond ETFs include 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF at 30.895 billion yuan and City Investment Bond ETF at 24.767 billion yuan [3] - The newly launched Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs are expected to enhance the liquidity and market presence of bond ETFs [8] Group 3 - According to Guotai Junan Securities, the ticket interest strategy will dominate from 2025 onwards, with Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs showing resilience during market adjustments [7] - The performance of actively managed pure bond funds indicates that short-term bonds outperform medium to long-term bonds, and credit bonds are favored over interest rate bonds [7] - The liquidity of bond ETFs is expected to improve as the current market environment gradually stabilizes [7] Group 4 - The new sales fee regulations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission are anticipated to create greater development opportunities for bond ETFs [8] - The proposed changes in redemption fees may lead to a shift in institutional investment from interest rate bond funds to bond ETFs, enhancing their attractiveness [8]

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has seen a slight increase of 0.12%, with the latest price at 118.66 yuan as of September 22, 2025 [1] - The ETF recorded a turnover of 3.44% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 1.064 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume for the ETF was 10.735 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF reached 30.842 billion yuan [1] - There has been a net outflow of 421 million yuan recently, but in the last 10 trading days, there were net inflows on 6 days, totaling 555 million yuan [1] - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising above 1.8% [1] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China is expected to restart government bond trading operations, following a net purchase of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds from August to December 2024 [1] - According to Guangfa Securities, the central bank may take measures to support liquidity and stabilize the market in response to the rapid rise in long-term bond yields [1]

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has been adjusted with a latest quote of 118.83 yuan as of September 19, 2025, indicating active market trading with a turnover of 22.28% and a transaction volume of 7.011 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 31.484 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 304 million yuan recently; however, in the last 10 trading days, there were net inflows on 7 days totaling 1.354 billion yuan [1] - The Ministry of Finance announced plans to reissue 1,570 billion yuan of 3-year fixed-rate Treasury bonds with a coupon rate of 1.42%, which is consistent with previously issued bonds of the same term [1] Group 2 - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which includes publicly issued 30-year Treasury bonds with a remaining maturity of 25-30 years, serving as a benchmark for investment in this category of bonds [2]

Group 1: ETF Market Overview - As of September 12, 2025, there are 1,292 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total asset management scale of 52,387.73 billion [2] - The breakdown of ETFs includes 1,029 stock ETFs (35,315.17 billion), 39 bond ETFs (5,718.88 billion), 27 money market ETFs (1,564.76 billion), 17 commodity ETFs (1,611.53 billion), 173 cross-border ETFs (8,120.58 billion), and 6 unlisted ETFs (52.32 billion) [2] - In the week from September 8 to September 12, 2025, four new stock ETFs were launched, including two fintech-themed ETFs, with a total issuance scale of 5.682 billion [3][4] Group 2: ETF Performance Analysis - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was 1.97%, with the best-performing ETF being the China United Asset Management's Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF, which rose by 10.14% [3][4] - Conversely, the worst performer was the Guotai Junan Sci-Tech Innovation Drug ETF, which fell by 3.12% [4] - The average share change for stock ETFs was an increase of 6.6576 million shares, with the chemical ETF seeing the largest increase of 2.968 billion shares [4] Group 3: PB-ROE Framework and ETF Rotation Strategy - The PB-ROE framework categorizes industries into six quadrants, focusing on high PB and high ROE industries in the third quadrant and low PB and medium ROE industries in the fifth quadrant [5] - Backtesting from 2017 to February 2024 shows that only the third and fifth quadrants achieved excess returns, with annualized excess returns of 4.27% and 1.55%, respectively [5] - The combined PB-ROE rotation strategy yielded an annualized return of 11.93% and an annualized excess return of 13.22% [6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the automotive, transportation, and public utilities sectors, corresponding to their respective industry ETFs [8]

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has adjusted its price to 119.06 yuan as of September 16, 2025, with a trading volume of 110.76 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 35.12%, indicating active market trading [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF is reported at 31.534 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 67.9166 million yuan recently; however, there has been a net inflow of 840 million yuan over the last five trading days [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 2.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 15, with a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan for the day, reflecting a supportive monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Overall, the bond market is experiencing adjustments, but the central bank is expected to maintain support, which may lead to a resumption of government bond trading [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds, serving as a benchmark for investment performance [2]