30年国债ETF紧密跟踪中债-30年期国债指数(总值)财富指数，中债-30年期国债指数隶属于中债总指数 族系，该指数成分券由在境内公开发行上市流通的发行期限为30年且待偿期25-30年（包含25年和30 年）的记账式国债组成（不包含特别国债），可作为投资该类债券的业绩比较基准和标的指数。 风险提示：中债-30年期国债财富(总值)指数(代码:CBA21801)来源于中债金融估值中心有限公司("中 债")。本基金为被动投资的交易型开放式指数基金，主要采用抽样复制策略，跟踪标的指数市场表现， 具有与标的指数所表征的市场相似的风险收益特征。投资者投资于本基金面临标的指数回报与相应市场 平均回报偏离、标的指数波动、跟踪误差控制未达约定目标、标的指数变更、指数编制机构停止服务、 成份券停牌或违约等潜在风险。本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投 资、兑付责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定 盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构 成对本基金业绩表现的预示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 11 月 24 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（11.17-11.21） 权益回调，债券 ETF 迎来转机 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况：央行买断式逆回购与股债跷板效应共振，债 券 ETF净流入回暖。上周利率债类 ETF、信用债类 ETF、可转债类 ETF净流 入资金分别+37.39 亿元、+65.43 亿元、+35.52 亿元，债券 ETF 市场合计净 流入金额 138.34 亿元。上周央行加量续做 6M 买断式逆回购，市场流动性充 裕推动债券 ETF 市场份额净值双增。叠加上周权益市场高位回调，沪深 300 指数单周大跌 3.77%，提振债市行情。多数类型获资金净流入，国债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock ETF market has shown resilience by attracting over 10 billion yuan in net inflows for two consecutive trading days, despite the overall market decline below 4000 points [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 17, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03 points, down 0.46%, with total trading volume shrinking to 1.93 trillion yuan [4]. - The total scale of all stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) reached 4.39 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 109.80 billion yuan on the same day [4][6]. Group 2: ETF Inflows - The leading categories for net inflows were industry themes and Hong Kong stock ETFs, with inflows of 38.7 billion yuan and 32.88 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - Major fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund reported significant inflows, with E Fund's ETFs reaching a scale of 8160.6 billion yuan and a net inflow of 17.7 billion yuan [6][7]. Group 3: Specific ETF Performance - The top-performing ETFs on November 17 included the CSI 300 ETF with a net inflow of 16.58 billion yuan and the SSE 50 ETF with 11.6 billion yuan [10]. - The Southern Innovation ETF saw a net inflow of 9 billion yuan, driven by interest in AI-related sectors [11]. Group 4: Gold ETFs - Gold ETFs also attracted significant investment, with the Huaan Gold ETF receiving 7.6 billion yuan in net inflows, reflecting a trend towards safe-haven assets [11]. - The Guangfa Shanghai Gold ETF has shown a year-to-date increase of 49.71%, indicating strong demand for gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty [11][12]. Group 5: Outflows from Certain ETFs - Recent profit-taking has led to net outflows from cyclical ETFs such as chemical, coal, and non-ferrous metal ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [14].

Core Insights - The bond ETF market has reached a new high with a total scale exceeding 700 billion yuan, marking significant growth in 2023 [1] - There has been a net inflow of over 427 billion yuan into bond ETFs this year, with 20 ETFs attracting more than 10 billion yuan each [1] - Institutional investors dominate the bond ETF market, accounting for 92% of the total investors [1] Group 1: Market Overview - As of November 14, 2023, the total scale of bond ETFs is 706.29 billion yuan, a record high [1] - The bond ETF market has seen a notable expansion this year, with 53 bond ETFs contributing to the total scale [1] - The short-term bond ETF has attracted nearly 40 billion yuan, while the 30-year government bond ETF has seen over 29 billion yuan in net inflows [1] Group 2: Types of Bond ETFs - The main categories of bond ETFs include interest rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs, each with distinct risk-return characteristics [2][3][4] - Interest rate bond ETFs are based on government bonds and policy financial bonds, while credit bond ETFs focus on corporate bonds [2][3] - Convertible bond ETFs serve as a hybrid between bonds and stocks, providing unique investment opportunities [4] Group 3: Factors Driving Growth - The growth of bond ETFs is driven by increased demand from investors in a low-interest environment, leading to heightened sensitivity to fund fees [5] - Regulatory support and product innovation have contributed to the introduction of 32 new bond ETFs this year [6] - Enhanced liquidity from market makers and broker-dealers has significantly improved the trading environment for bond ETFs, creating a positive feedback loop [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond ETF market is expected to face challenges in 2025, with diminishing correlations between long-term bonds and both fundamental and liquidity factors [6] - Institutional behavior is increasingly influencing the bond market, with a shift towards equity-bond rebalancing due to declining risk-return ratios [6] - The asset management sector is anticipated to focus on multi-asset and multi-strategy developments in response to changing market conditions [6]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the net inflow of funds into the bond ETF market shrank again, likely due to the suppression of the rising stock market. The net inflow of funds into interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs was 1.208 billion yuan, - 0.366 billion yuan, and - 1.395 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 0.553 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. The scale of bond ETF funds increased by 0.02% compared to the previous week's closing, mainly due to the downward oscillation of bond market yields in a loose - money environment, which led to a slight increase in the overall net value of the bond ETF market [2][5]. - The net inflow of treasury bond ETFs led again. The net inflow amounts of treasury bond ETFs (+1.101 billion yuan), short - term financing ETFs (+0.682 billion yuan), and corporate bond ETFs (+0.417 billion yuan) ranked in the top three [2][5]. - The share redemption of convertible bond ETFs may be related to the conversion of underlying assets. The continuous large - scale outflow of convertible bond ETF shares for many weeks may be due to the strong motivation of funds to convert shares when the stock market is strong, and the underlying convertible bonds are redeemed and converted into shares [2][16]. - In a loose - money environment, the net value of bond ETFs increased slightly. The recent restart of treasury bond trading by the central bank and the positive net investment of reverse repurchase funds last week provided short - term support for the bond market, driving a slight increase in the net value of bond ETFs [2][23]. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The net inflow of funds into the bond ETF market shrank again last week, affected by the rising stock market. The net inflow of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs was 1.208 billion yuan, - 0.366 billion yuan, and - 1.395 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 0.553 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of November 14, 2025, the scale of bond ETF funds was 70.629 billion yuan, up 0.02% from the previous week's closing and 292.88% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.32% of the total market ETF scale, with a 4bp increase from the previous weekend [5]. - Treasury bond ETFs had the highest net inflow again. The net inflow amounts of treasury bond ETFs, short - term financing ETFs, and corporate bond ETFs ranked in the top three, while the net inflows of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs, convertible bond ETFs, and science and technology innovation bond ETFs were negative [5]. 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - As of November 14, 2025, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local government bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs changed by 8.94 million shares, - 0.22 million shares, 1.11 million shares, 21.39 million shares, and - 102.70 million shares respectively compared to November 7, 2025, with a total change of - 71.48 million shares in bond - type ETFs. The continuous large - scale outflow of convertible bond ETF shares may be related to the conversion of underlying convertible bonds [16]. 1.3 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The share net inflows of 30 - year treasury bond ETF and urban investment bond ETF led. As of November 14, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local government bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF changed by 8.66 million shares, 0.39 million shares, no change, 28.90 million shares, and - 89.70 million shares respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [19]. - In a loose - money environment, the net value of bond ETFs increased slightly. As of November 14, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local government bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF changed by 0.11%, 0.08%, 0.06%, 0.02%, and 0.53% respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [23]. 1.4 基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - Some products had a significant increase in redeemed shares. As of November 14, 2025, the shares of 8 existing benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs changed by no change, no change, no change, no change, - 4.82 million shares, - 1.80 million shares, - 2.07 million shares, and - 7.08 million shares respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [26]. - The net value performance was differentiated, and most products declined. As of November 14, 2025, the net values of 8 credit bond ETFs changed by 0.02%, 0.01%, no change, no change, - 0.02%, - 0.04%, - 0.03%, and - 0.04% respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [27]. 1.5 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The overall shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs were basically the same as the previous week. The net inflow of shares last week was - 1.70 million shares, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week. The shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs of Harvest, Penghua, and China Merchants ranked in the top three. The net inflow of shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs of China Merchants, Guotai, and Penghua ranked in the top three, while those of GF, Boshi, and Tianhong had the largest net outflows [31]. - The net value trend was flat. As of November 14, 2025, the average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.01% compared to the previous week's closing, basically the same as the previous week [31]. 1.6 单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - The 30 - year treasury bond ETF had the highest net inflow again, and convertible bond - type ETFs led in net value growth. Last week, the net values of convertible bond ETF and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETF increased by 0.53% and 0.33% respectively, ranking in the top. In terms of premium/discount rates, the 30 - year treasury bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and corporate bond ETF had the highest premium rates [35]. - In terms of scale changes, the 30 - year treasury bond ETF (+1.037 billion yuan), short - term financing ETF (+0.682 billion yuan), and science and technology innovation bond ETF of Harvest (+0.419 billion yuan) had the top - three net inflow amounts, while the convertible bond ETF had a significantly higher net outflow amount than other products, reaching - 1.228 billion yuan [35].

Core Insights - The bond ETF market has reached a new high, with a total scale of 706.29 billion yuan as of November 14, 2023, marking significant growth despite market volatility [2] - Factors contributing to this growth include favorable policies, product innovation, and increased liquidity from market makers [2][3] Market Growth - The bond ETF market has expanded significantly this year, with a net inflow of over 427 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [2] - Notably, 20 ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan, with short-term bond ETFs attracting nearly 40 billion yuan and 30-year treasury ETFs over 29 billion yuan [2] Investor Demand - Investor demand is driven by a low-interest environment, leading to increased sensitivity to fund fees among investors [2] - The limited number of bond ETFs, such as only two 30-year treasury index funds available, enhances their appeal due to operational convenience and flexibility [3] Market Outlook - The central bank's bond purchasing operations are expected to boost market confidence, with a focus on medium to short-term treasury bonds [4] - The overall market is anticipated to perform better than the third quarter, with a potential recovery in the bond market expected in the fourth quarter [4] Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should consider a defensive approach in the short term, waiting for favorable conditions in the equity market before taking more aggressive positions [5] - A multi-asset ETF strategy is recommended for investors seeking stable returns, combining low-volatility bond ETFs with equity ETFs to balance risk and reward [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth of bond ETFs in China, reaching a new high of 706.29 billion yuan as of November 14, driven by favorable policies, product innovation, and ease of trading [2][5][3]. Group 2 - The bond ETF market has expanded notably this year, with a net inflow of over 427 billion yuan, including 20 ETFs with net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan each, such as the short-term bond ETF with nearly 40 billion yuan and the 30-year government bond ETF with over 29 billion yuan [5]. - Factors contributing to the popularity of bond ETFs include increased investor sensitivity to fund fees in a low-interest environment, regulatory support for product innovation, and enhanced liquidity from market makers [5][6]. - The limited number of bond ETFs, such as only two 30-year government bond index funds and two convertible bond index funds, along with the operational convenience and flexibility of trading, further enhance their attractiveness [6][7]. - Looking ahead, the central bank's bond purchasing operations are expected to boost market confidence, with a forecast of a stable bond market in the short term, while investors are encouraged to adopt multi-asset ETF strategies to seize opportunities [9][10]. - The overall economic recovery and reduced net financing scale of government bonds are seen as favorable for the bond market, with expectations of a better performance in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter [9][10]. - Investment strategies suggested include a multi-asset ETF configuration that combines stable bond ETFs with stock ETFs to achieve a balance of risk and return in a volatile market [11].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has shown positive performance with a recent increase of 0.07%, indicating a recovery in the bond market supported by improved liquidity and favorable policy expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 7, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has a trading volume of 3.93% and a transaction value of 1.294 billion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 9.544 billion yuan over the past month [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 32.854 billion yuan, with a total of 275 million shares [1]. - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past three days, totaling 847 million yuan, with a peak single-day net inflow of 527 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Expectations - The bond market is expected to maintain a warming trend towards the end of the year, driven by ample liquidity and a recovery in market sentiment [1]. - Historical patterns suggest that the fourth quarter typically sees better performance in the bond market, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and proactive positioning by institutions [2]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a resumption of government bond buying operations, which is expected to positively influence market sentiment [2]. Group 3: Index and Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which includes publicly issued 30-year government bonds [2]. - This index serves as a benchmark for performance comparison and investment in long-term government bonds [2].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the increasing importance of dividend assets in the context of China's economic policies, particularly emphasizing the role of "patient capital" from insurance funds and the regulatory push for higher dividend payouts from listed companies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 7, 2025, the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) rose by 0.39%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Huayang Co. (600348) up by 2.58% and CITIC Bank (601998) up by 2.25% [1]. - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) also saw an increase of 0.50% [1]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the introduction of "patient capital," primarily from insurance funds, which favor dividend assets due to their stable cash flow characteristics [1]. - Policies like the "Nine National Policies" require listed companies to increase their dividend payout ratios, with state-owned enterprises' dividend scale exceeding 370 billion yuan [1][2]. - Regulatory focus on dividend payouts is expected to provide a solid institutional guarantee for the long-term investment value of dividend assets [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that the policy guidance injects significant vitality into dividend assets, with major brokerages recommending a dual strategy of technology and dividend stocks for 2025, positioning dividend stocks as defensive assets in a low-interest-rate environment [1].

- The six-cycle model is introduced to describe China's macroeconomic state based on three dimensions: monetary, credit, and growth. Currently, the economy is in stage 2, characterized by loose monetary policy, credit expansion, and growth recovery. The monetary factor is in a 14% easing range, credit expansion is identified using the three-month difference in medium-to-long-term loan pulses, and growth is assessed through PMI indicators [1][10][17] - Style rotation strategy is proposed based on the six-cycle framework. Growth style dominates in stages 1-2 due to credit expansion and economic recovery, quality style prevails in stages 3-4 as liquidity tightens, and value style performs better in stages 5-6 during economic slowdown and monetary easing. Growth style uses ChiNext ETF, quality style uses free cash flow ETF, and value style uses dividend low-volatility ETF [2][11][13] - Multi-asset rotation strategy is designed under the six-cycle framework. Different asset classes exhibit distinct performance across stages: equities and commodities excel in stages 1-3, bonds perform defensively in stages 4-6, and gold acts as a transitional asset in stages 5-6. Specific ETFs are allocated for each stage, such as ChiNext ETF for growth, free cash flow ETF for quality, and dividend ETF for value [17][18][19] - Strategy design ①: Risk parity is applied across all six stages without predicting economic cycles, inspired by Bridgewater's All Weather approach. The strategy achieves an annualized return of 11.5%, annualized volatility of 6.9%, maximum drawdown of 11.2%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.66 since 2014 [3][20][23] - Strategy design ②: A multi-asset ETF rotation strategy based on the six-cycle model achieves an annualized return of 23.0%, annualized volatility of 11.3%, maximum drawdown of 12%, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.0 since 2014. Monthly win rate is 72%, and annual turnover is 2.4 times. As of October 2023, the strategy's absolute return is 23.2%, with a drawdown of 4.4% [3][26][29] - Strategy design ③: A volatility-constrained version of the multi-asset ETF rotation strategy limits volatility to around 3%. This strategy achieves an annualized return of 9.4%, annualized volatility of 3.2%, maximum drawdown of 3.4%, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.88 since 2014. As of October 2023, the strategy's absolute return is 5.4% [3][31][34]