Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the U.S. plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips, which is perceived as a negative spillover effect on the upcoming pharmaceutical tariffs [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - The likelihood of tariffs on payments for out-licensing deals (BD transactions) is considered low by Morgan Stanley [1] - Current U.S. tariffs primarily target tangible goods, focusing on production repatriation, while service-related revenues, including intellectual property transfers, receive less attention [1] Group 2: Future BD Transactions - Most BD agreements involve granting development and manufacturing rights to global licensors, with some licensors planning to produce approved licensed drugs locally in the U.S. after receiving approval [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates an increase in BD transactions in the second half of 2025 and beyond, particularly among key pharmaceutical companies with strong product lines, such as Hengrui Medicine, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [1] Group 3: Impact on Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies - Chinese pharmaceutical companies currently have a low market share in the U.S. for finished drug sales, suggesting that any tariffs may have a limited impact [1]

大摩预期，2025年下半年及未来将有更多BD交易，特别是拥有深厚产品线的关键医药公司，如恒瑞医 药、中生制药、石药集团。最后，中国医药公司在美国现有成品药销售份额较低，因此任何关税都可能 只会产生有限的影响。 摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，美国表示将对进口半导体芯片征收约100%关税，市场视此为对即将公布 的医药关税的负面连带影响。大摩认为，对外授权合作(BD)交易付款征收关税的可能性较低。目前， 美国关税主要针对有形商品，聚焦生产回流，而服务相关收入(包括知识产权转让)较少受关注，特别是 美国对中国保持服务贸易顺差情况下。此外，大多数BD交易协议包含向全球授权方授予开发及制造 权，部分授权方表示，计划在美国获批后，于当地生产这些获批的授权药品。 ...