Group 1 - The stock of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) rebounded nearly 5% after a drop of almost 9% earlier, closing down nearly 4% at HKD 10.15 with a trading volume of HKD 1.824 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicated that the Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 3% during the trading session, while the overall Hang Seng Index remained flat, highlighting the weak performance of companies with asset authorization potential [1] - Concerns about the upcoming US pharmaceutical and semiconductor tariffs may have contributed to the market's decline, although Morgan Stanley believes the likelihood of tariffs on BD transaction payments is low [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley anticipates more BD transactions in the second half of this year and in the future, particularly for key pharmaceutical companies with strong product lines, such as CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [1] - Credit Lyonnais previously reported that CSPC has 10 already listed innovative brands and over 30 innovative products expected to launch before 2028, predicting a re-acceleration of core profit growth starting in 2026 [1] - The target price for CSPC was raised from HKD 13.8 to HKD 17.4, with a reaffirmation of a strong belief in outperforming the market [1]

（文章来源：华尔街见闻） 默克制药：公司预计，美国总统特朗普15%医药关税在2025年造成的"影响偏低"。 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，可能会"在月底"出台医药关税。 ...

本文字数：1229，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 程程 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月8日，美国总统特朗普在内阁会议上表示，"我们很快将在医药领域宣 布一些重要举措"。 特朗普称："我们会给相关企业大约一年到一年半的时间来调整，之后他们将面临关税。"他补充 说："如果他们必须将药品和其他相关产品进口到国内，关税将高达200%。" 值得注意的是，投资者似乎尚未认真对待这一关税威胁。当地时间7月9日，许多欧洲制药公司的股 价几乎没有变化，追踪印度制药股的标普BSE医疗保健指数9日收盘时大致持平。 巴克莱银行分析师菲尔德（Emily Field）表示，投资者对最新的医药关税威胁不以为然，认为这只 是"空谈"，"特朗普总是退缩（TACO）交易的观念仍然盛行。" 2025.07. 11 瑞银制药业分析师韦斯顿（Matt Weston）表示，考虑到获得监管部门批准和建设高科技制造工厂所 需的时间，18个月的时间不足以将制造业转移到美国。他表示："我们通常认为将商业规模的制造转 移到新工厂需要4年-5年的时间。" 韦斯顿称，向美国出口高价成品药的公司受到的影响最大。但他也表示，欧洲制药公司通常不会这样 做，许多公司 ...

报告导读： 特朗普上台后对美国药价及医药产业多次发出威胁，要求实施最惠国价格、以 医药关税等政策。我们认为，考虑到美国药品短缺、产业外流等，短期内影响有限。 重要背景：美国药价高企 + 产业链外流 。 美国医药支出高位增长，创新药价格上涨成核心驱动力。美国 卫生总费用与人均药品支出均居全球首位， 2022 年人均药品支出达 1564 美元，远高于其他发达国家； 2018 – 2022 年 CAGR 达 6.2% 。我们认为，药价上涨主要由创新药带动，其定价长期高于通胀，而 仿制药则持续降价。复杂的定价体系在一定程度上支撑了创新药高价体系的稳定性。与此同时，美国医药 逆差亦持续扩大， 2024 年进口 2130 亿美元、逆差 1186 亿美元，欧洲尤其是是爱尔兰，因税收优势 成为主要逆差来源与核心制造基地。整体看，美国医药产业仍面临高价支撑与海外产能依赖的双重结构性 矛盾。 政策一：特朗普再提最惠国定价，或面临法律挑战，改革重心仍在 Medicare 体系内。 特朗普政府提出 实施"最惠国价格"政策（ MFN ），以发达国家最低价锚定美国药品支付水平，目标直指药价下调 30%-80% 。我们认为，政策如强行落地 ...

Core Insights - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals is impacting the global pharmaceutical sector, but the overall effect on China's pharmaceutical industry is expected to be limited [1][2] - Chinese CXO (Contract Research Organization) companies are becoming increasingly significant in the global supply chain, but the impact of tariffs will primarily be felt by their clients, leading to increased supply costs [2] - The rise of innovative drugs in China is notable, particularly in the Hong Kong market, where clinical-stage products are being evaluated based on their potential global market performance [2][3] Impact of Tariffs - The potential tariffs are likely to have a limited impact on China's pharmaceutical industry, especially for finished drugs, as the export volume is relatively small [1] - For medical device companies, the exposure to the U.S. market is also limited, with many products targeting emerging markets instead [1] - Companies with exposure to the U.S. market may prioritize depleting their existing inventory in the U.S. in response to tariff uncertainties [1] CXO Industry Dynamics - Most tariff costs will be borne by clients of CXO companies, which may lead to increased supply chain costs [2] - The process of reshoring manufacturing to the U.S. is complex and time-consuming, requiring 2-3 years for new facilities and additional time for regulatory approvals [2] - The talent pool necessary for replicating China's CDMO success is difficult to establish in the U.S. and Europe, making it challenging to recreate the same level of global influence [2] Innovative Drug Market - The evaluation of clinical-stage products is based on their projected peak sales and market penetration, which has become more familiar to investors since the opening of the Hong Kong market to unprofitable biotech firms [2] - Chinese innovative drugs are gaining global recognition, leading to increased investor interest as companies begin to license products internationally [2][3] - The competitive landscape for Chinese innovative drugs is still developing, with further observation needed over the next 3-5 years to assess their commercial viability against global competitors [3][4] Future Disease Areas - Oncology remains a significant area of exploration, with continued opportunities for growth [4] - Other promising fields include autoimmune diseases, metabolic disorders, and neurodegenerative diseases [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Overweight" [1]. Core Insights - The impact of US pharmaceutical tariffs on Chinese companies is limited, with a focus on domestic substitution, innovative drugs, and domestic demand [35][36]. - The US pharmaceutical trade deficit is expanding, primarily driven by imports from Europe, with a projected deficit of 118.6 billion USD in 2024, a 35% year-on-year increase [37]. - If tariffs are implemented, large multinational pharmaceutical companies may face significant challenges, but the transfer of the industry chain back to the US is unlikely to happen quickly due to high costs and long construction cycles [38]. Summary by Sections 1. US Pharmaceutical Market Trade Deficit - The US pharmaceutical trade deficit is projected to reach 118.6 billion USD in 2024, with imports at approximately 213 billion USD and exports at 94.4 billion USD, marking a 20% increase in imports and a 5% increase in exports year-on-year [6][37]. - The US maintains a trade surplus with China in pharmaceuticals, with imports from China accounting for only 1.5% of total pharmaceutical imports [36][16]. 2. Potential Tariff Impacts - The report discusses the potential for tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with Trump threatening a 25% tariff to encourage domestic production [17][19]. - Most pharmaceutical sectors are currently exempt from tariffs, but medical devices and some excipients are facing increased tariffs [19][20]. 3. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data indicates that tariffs have had a limited impact on China's pharmaceutical exports to the US, with exports continuing to grow despite previous tariff threats [22][23]. - The report suggests that tariffs may benefit domestic substitution efforts in China, particularly in medical devices and innovative drugs, while also reshaping export and domestic sales patterns [25][28].