张伟团队：伊朗冲突走向何方？20260301 摘要 在美国处于 2026 年中期选举周期、通胀仍是核心议题的背景下，特朗普为何 在此时选择对伊朗动武？本轮冲突中，美国、以色列、伊朗各自的核心诉求分 别是什么？ 冲突在形式上看似突然，但核心触发因素来自美伊谈判窗口被主动打断。原计 划在维也纳开启新一轮会谈，但在会谈前夕直接爆发军事行动；在开战前，美 国政府高官以"不具名"方式释放信息，明确"以色列先打、美国配合"的行 动排序，随后实际演进亦符合该路径。去年（2025 年）6 月的"12 天战争" 同样发生在美伊高级别会谈临近前，以色列先动手并将美国拖入战局，客观效 果是中止双方妥协进程；本轮冲突在时间节点上复制了"谈判临近—以色列先 动手—美国跟进"的模式。 美国与以色列的共同目标可以区分为"最高目标" 与"最低目标"。最高目标是实现伊朗政权更迭，即不仅清除梅内伊，更推动 伊朗伊斯兰政权被替换，并期待通过内部起义与叛乱形成新政权；新政权在美 战争难以在短时间内解决三项议题，即便政权更迭，核、导弹、"抵抗 之弧"问题仍将是谈判重点。战后谈判可能新增伊朗"新政权安排与过 渡"议题。 美国希望通过军事行动促成伊朗内部 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that Iran will not abandon uranium enrichment or negotiate on its missile program during talks with the United States [1] - Iran's Foreign Minister, Zarif, indicated that the possibility of war remains, and Iran is prepared for such a scenario [1] - In the event of a U.S. military strike, Iran lacks the capability to attack the U.S. mainland but would target U.S. military bases in the Middle East, potentially escalating the conflict in the region [1]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's Foreign Minister, Zarif, stated that Iran will not abandon uranium enrichment or negotiate on its missile program during talks with the United States, indicating a firm stance in ongoing negotiations [1] Group 1 - Iran is prepared for the possibility of war, emphasizing that the threat of military conflict remains [1] - In the event of a U.S. military strike, Iran lacks the capability to attack the U.S. mainland but would target U.S. military bases in the Middle East, potentially escalating regional tensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Iran and the United States have agreed to continue indirect talks to ease tensions and avoid military confrontation, with Iran describing the initial discussions as positive [1][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Details - The talks took place in Muscat, Oman, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating that the discussions had a good start and could lead to a framework for future talks if the process continues positively [1][4]. - The discussions are strictly focused on nuclear issues, which Iran has consistently maintained as its position, while U.S. officials suggest that the talks should also address Iran's missile program and support for regional militia groups [1][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the positive statements from the talks, oil prices fell, with Brent crude oil dropping below $67 per barrel before narrowing its losses; oil prices have increased by approximately 12% this year, primarily due to market concerns over potential new conflicts in the Middle East [1][4]. Group 3: Diplomatic Engagement - During the negotiations, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi held multiple separate meetings with both the Iranian delegation led by Araghchi and the U.S. team, which included Special Envoy Steve Wittekoff and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of President Donald Trump [1][4].