抵抗之弧

Search documents
从加沙到伊朗,“第六次中东战争”改变了什么?
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-07-23 06:46
Core Points - The recent conflict between Israel and the "Resistance Arc" has escalated into what can be termed the Sixth Middle East War, significantly impacting the geopolitical landscape of the region [2][3][6] - The "Resistance Arc," led by Iran, has suffered devastating blows, with its key components facing existential crises and diminished capabilities [7][8] - The dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have shifted, with the Iranian issue becoming increasingly central to regional tensions [9][12] Group 1: Conflict Overview - The conflict began with Hamas's actions against Israel, which were intended to protest the marginalization of the Palestinian issue and Israel's right-wing policies [2] - The ongoing violence has led to a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with multiple ceasefire negotiations failing [1][7] - The conflict has evolved to include various actors, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, indicating a broader regional confrontation [6][9] Group 2: Impact on the "Resistance Arc" - Hamas is facing a critical survival challenge, with its governance in Gaza under threat and being excluded from reconstruction plans [7][8] - Hezbollah has been significantly weakened, with pressures from both Israel and domestic Lebanese forces to disarm [7] - Iran's position as the core of the "Resistance Arc" is precarious, facing severe challenges across political, military, and social dimensions [8][12] Group 3: Changes in Regional Dynamics - The core issues in the Middle East are shifting, with the Iranian question becoming a primary concern, potentially leading to renewed conflicts [9][12] - The traditional Arab-Israeli conflict has transformed, with Arab states increasingly distancing themselves from collective opposition to Israel [4][5] - The geopolitical landscape is undergoing rapid reorganization, with countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey gaining prominence while Israel and Iran's influence wanes [12][13] Group 4: U.S. Policy and Its Effects - The U.S. Middle East policy has been characterized by inconsistency and a lack of coherent strategy, undermining its credibility in the region [10][11] - The U.S. has oscillated between supporting Israel and engaging with Iran, complicating its role in mediating the conflict [11] - The chaotic U.S. approach has exacerbated regional tensions and diminished its standing among Middle Eastern nations [10][11]
【环时深度】以色列想“重塑中东”,走得通吗?
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-07-20 22:50
Core Viewpoint - The recent conflict in Syria, particularly in Suweida, has drawn attention due to Israel's involvement, which is perceived as part of its "New Middle East" strategy aimed at reshaping borders and alliances for security purposes [1][2][7]. Group 1: Conflict Overview - The conflict in Suweida began on July 13, triggered by the alleged kidnapping of a Druze merchant, leading to clashes between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes [2]. - By July 20, the situation had stabilized, with reports indicating a ceasefire and the deployment of security forces in the region [1][2]. - The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the conflict resulted in thousands of deaths [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Demographics - The Druze population in Syria is estimated at around 700,000, primarily residing in the southern region of Suweida [4]. - The Druze have historically resisted the central government's attempts to exert control, advocating for federalism in response to the regime's push for centralization [4][5]. Group 3: External Influences and Geopolitical Dynamics - Israel's involvement in the conflict is seen as an effort to weaken Syria, with analysts suggesting that a fragmented Syria would be more beneficial for Israeli security [6][7]. - The concept of a "New Middle East" is emerging, characterized by a shift in power dynamics, with Israel and Turkey gaining strength while Iran and its allies are perceived to be weakening [10][11]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing geopolitical shifts may lead to a new focus on the rivalry between Turkey and Israel, as opposed to the traditional Iran-Israel conflict [11]. - Analysts suggest that the current instability in Syria and the broader region presents opportunities for external powers to intervene in local politics [10].
伊朗:握着全球能源咽喉,却眼睁睁看着20年布局瞬间崩塌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 04:19
你有没有想过,一个控制全球三分之一石油运输通道的国家,居然在短短一年内失去了几乎全部的地区影响力?就像一个身怀绝技的赌徒,却在牌桌上一手 好牌打得稀烂。这事,说的就是——伊朗。 时间得拨回到2003年。那年,美国推翻了伊拉克萨达姆政权,中东格局开始重新洗牌。很多人还没回过神来,伊朗已经悄悄布好了自己的棋局。 它没有大张旗鼓地出兵,而是像个地下组织的"老大",培养起了一票忠心小弟: 在伊拉克,扶持什叶派武装; 在叙利亚,力挺阿萨德; 在黎巴嫩,供养真主党; 在也门,援助胡塞武装; 在加沙,为哈马斯提供武器与资金 就这么一来,伊朗从波斯湾一路"串联"到地中海,织出了一条威震中东的"抵抗之弧"。说白了,那时候的伊朗,完全称得上是中东的幕后大佬。 为啥伊朗能做到这一步?一半靠的是地理。 它的地盘,就像一个超级路口:北边通俄罗斯、东边连中国印度、西边是地中海,南边直接卡住波斯湾。 最关键的是,伊朗手里有一张霍尔木兹海峡的王牌:全球三成石油都得从这儿过。只要伊朗心情不好,往海峡里扔个水雷,全世界油价都得跳起来。所以 说,伊朗不是中东的"刺头",更像全球能源的"水表"。 可惜,再聪明的布局也挡不住现实的风暴。 在我看来,伊 ...