Core Viewpoint - Jefferies' latest U.S. stock strategy report highlights a strong performance of small-cap stocks in August, ending a period of underperformance compared to large-cap stocks, but warns of underlying risks [1][2]. Summary by Sections Small-Cap Stock Performance - The Russell 2000 index rose by 7% in August, marking its best performance for the month since 2000, and has rebounded 35% since the low on April 8, outperforming large-cap stocks by 441 basis points [1]. - Micro-cap stocks performed exceptionally well, increasing by 9.3% in August and 47% from their low [1]. Drivers of Small-Cap Stock Rebound - The rebound in small-cap stocks was primarily driven by low market capitalization, low-quality, and unprofitable companies, with low market cap stocks rising by 10.5% in August and 52.8% since April 8 [2]. - Unprofitable companies saw an 8.5% increase in August and a 52.4% rise from their low, while high-beta stocks rebounded by 63.8% from their low [2]. - Key factors for the small-cap stock rebound include rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and corporate earnings exceeding expectations [2]. Fund Flows and Earnings Outlook - Despite the strong short-term performance of small-cap stocks, there has been a continuous outflow from small-cap stock ETFs, totaling $11.4 billion since the market low [2]. - Analysts expect large-cap stock earnings growth to continue to outpace small-cap stocks in Q3, with Q4 being a critical period for crossing thresholds [2]. Stock Style Performance - Cyclical stocks showed robust performance, rising by 7.6% in August and 40.2% from their low, with a year-to-date increase of 10% [2]. - Long-term growth stocks increased by 6.8%, 33.1%, and 2.4% respectively [2]. - As the Russell 2000 index rebounded, bond proxy products lagged, rising by 17.7% from their low [2]. Active Management Fund Performance - Since early April, actively managed funds have generally underperformed benchmark indices, with only large-cap value funds outperforming [6]. - Among all funds tracked by Jefferies this year, only 28.4% have outperformed their benchmarks [6].

瑞银方面也呼应了这一观点，包括肖恩·西蒙兹在内的策略师指出，"随着降息缓解资产负债表压力， 小盘股和低质量股票可能继续跑赢大盘"。截至上周五的三周内， 罗素2000指数累计上涨9%，同期纳 斯达克100指数(大盘科技股为主)仅上涨3.2% 。 瑞银策略师提到，自5月初触底以来， 罗素2000成分股公司的盈利修正幅度大幅上升 ，与指数反弹趋 势一致。此前数月，小盘股板块一直落后于整体股市，且自2021年11月以来从未创下历史新高。 上周五，鲍威尔的鸽派言论让交易员确信 降息"几乎已成定局"，罗素2000指数单日大涨3.9%，创下4 月初以来最佳单日表现 。投资者随即做出反应，向iShares罗素2000 ETF(小盘股主要ETF)注入的资金 规模达到去年11月以来最高。在周一小幅下跌1%之前，这一小盘股基准指数相对纳斯达克100指数的 表现，创下2024年7月以来的最佳单周水平。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳在报告中指出，"杰 克逊霍尔会议后，小盘股终于突破盘整"，其观点聚焦鲍威尔在会议上的演讲。她表示，受投资者仓 位调整以及部分资金从大型科技 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that small-cap stocks are experiencing a rotation of funds from large-cap technology stocks, supported by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating potential interest rate cuts [1][2] - The Russell 2000 index, a benchmark for small-cap stocks, has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 index in recent weeks, with a 9% increase over three weeks compared to a 3.2% rise for the Nasdaq [1] - Following Powell's comments, the Russell 2000 index saw a single-day increase of 3.9%, marking its best performance since early April, and the inflow into the iShares Russell 2000 ETF reached the highest level since November of the previous year [2] Group 2 - Analysts from Bank of America and UBS believe that small-cap stocks may continue to outperform large-cap stocks in the near term, provided there are no significant macroeconomic surprises [1] - RBC Capital Markets noted that small-cap stocks have finally broken out of their consolidation phase, driven by investor repositioning and outflows from large-cap tech stocks [2] - Truist Financial raised its rating on U.S. small-cap stocks from "less attractive" to "neutral," citing valuation advantages and improving earnings trends [3]