Core Points - Japan is set to hold a temporary National Assembly on the 21st to elect the 104th Prime Minister, succeeding Shigeru Ishiba [1] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party have reached an agreement to form a coalition government, focusing on economic measures, constitutional amendments, and structural reforms [1] - The LDP currently holds 196 out of 465 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Japan Innovation Party holds 35 seats [2] Group 1 - The election process involves a first round where a candidate must secure a majority to win; if no candidate achieves this, the top two candidates will proceed to a second round [1] - The coalition agreement includes a proposal to reduce the number of seats in the House of Representatives by approximately 10% [1] - The Japan Innovation Party has confirmed its support for LDP candidate Sanae Takaichi in the Prime Minister election [1] Group 2 - The LDP and Japan Innovation Party together do not hold a majority in both houses, which may lead to challenges in governance for Takaichi if elected [2] - The Constitutional Democratic Party has announced its support for its leader, Yoshihiko Noda, in the election, indicating a shift in strategy due to the LDP's coalition [2] - Historical trends suggest that new governments facing early political turmoil may have shorter tenures, potentially collapsing within one to two years [2]

Core Points - The election of Sanna Takichi as the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan marks a significant political shift, with expectations for her to become the first female Prime Minister of Japan [1][4][5] - Takichi's victory reflects a desire for stability within the LDP, as she aims to continue the "Abe Line" policy, which has historically ensured the party's dominance [5][10] - The current political landscape presents challenges for Takichi, as the LDP is now a minority ruling party, necessitating cooperation with opposition parties to pass legislation [10][11] Election Details - The election process involved two rounds of voting, with Takichi receiving 185 votes in the second round, surpassing her opponent, Koizumi, who received 156 votes [1][3] - The first round saw no candidate achieve a majority, leading to a runoff between the top two candidates [1][3] Political Implications - Takichi's leadership is expected to focus on maintaining Japan's strategic alliance with the U.S. while also seeking to stabilize relations with China [2][12][16] - The LDP's minority status in the Diet will require Takichi to negotiate and collaborate with opposition parties, which could impact the efficiency of governance [10][11] - The influence of political factions, particularly the Aso faction, played a crucial role in the election outcome, with their votes being pivotal in the second round [6][10] Foreign Policy Outlook - Takichi's approach to foreign policy is anticipated to balance strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance while engaging in dialogue with China to ensure regional stability [12][13][16] - The potential for improved Japan-South Korea relations is also noted, as both countries face common challenges and may prioritize diplomatic engagement [17][18]

新华社东京9月22日电 题：五人角逐、两大决定因素谁会是日本下任首相 新华社记者陈泽安 日本自民党总裁选举管理委员会22日发布公告，确认5人报名参加本届自民党总裁选举，投票将于10月4日举行。这次党总裁选举的胜者如无意 外，将成为日本下任首相。 自民党在国会两院选举中接连受挫，党内分歧明显，选举博弈激烈。日本舆论认为，5名候选人政策主张有同有异，各自优劣势明显，两大因素或 决定谁能最终胜出。但无论谁赢得选举，都将面临执政联盟"少数执政"的困局，前途未卜。 参选五人主张各异 正式宣布参加党总裁选举的5人分别是农林水产大臣小泉进次郎、前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗、内阁官房长官林芳正、前经济安全保障担当 大臣小林鹰之和自民党前干事长茂木敏充。 2024年10月27日，在日本东京自民党总部，日本首相、自民党总裁石破茂（右）和前环境大臣小泉进次郎将象征成功当选的红花贴在候选人名字 上。新华社发（Pool图片，青山隆史摄） 现年44岁的小泉进次郎是前首相小泉纯一郎次子，主张修改宪法、提升军力等右翼政策。他20日表示胜选后将尽快推出相关经济措施以应对当前 物价上涨，他还强调将与在野党合作。 茂木敏充曾担任外务大臣、自民党 ...

新华社记者陈泽安 新华社东京9月22日电 题：五人角逐、两大决定因素 谁会是日本下任首相 茂木敏充曾担任外务大臣、自民党干事长等职务，政界履历丰富。他近来提出聚焦地方振兴和构建 新执政联盟框架的政策主张。《日本时报》等媒体认为，在如今自民党更看重吸引年轻选民、拉拢其他 保守政党合作的背景下，现年69岁的茂木想要获得更多支持有一定难度。 50岁的小林鹰之自诩为"稳健的保守派"。毕业于东京大学和哈佛大学的他声称要让日本成为科技强 国，并加大对人工智能等领域的投资。在安全方面，小林主张修宪和提高防卫开支。日本舆论认为，精 英式学历和公职背景是小林的加分项，但知名度较低、资历尚浅是他的劣势。 林芳正在政治理念上遵循"中间路线"，其政策主张相对稳健温和。在外交上，林芳正被认为"既知 华、又知美"。林芳正18日表示，将继承前首相岸田文雄和石破茂的路线，"并添加新内容"。日媒认 为，64岁的林芳正属于自由派，恐怕难以获得党内保守派支持。 日本自民党总裁选举管理委员会22日发布公告，确认5人报名参加本届自民党总裁选举，投票将于 10月4日举行。这次党总裁选举的胜者如无意外，将成为日本下任首相。 自民党在国会两院选举中接连受挫 ...

Core Points - The election for the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has officially begun, with five candidates announcing their participation, and the winner is expected to become the next Prime Minister of Japan [1][2] - The election faces challenges such as a significant reduction in eligible voting party members and ongoing factional disputes within the party, alongside the pressing issue of governing as a minority following the loss of majority in both houses of the Diet [1][3] Candidate Overview - The five candidates competing in the LDP presidential election are Toshimitsu Motegi, Yoshihide Suga, Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, and Kobayashi Eagle, all of whom previously lost to Shigeru Ishiba in the last election [2] - Candidates are expected to debate key issues such as high prices and cooperation with opposition parties during the campaign period leading up to the October 4 voting [2] Polling and Support Dynamics - Recent polls indicate that Shinjiro Koizumi leads with a support rate of 23.8%, followed closely by Sanae Takaichi at 21%, although the final outcome will depend on internal party support rather than public opinion [3] - The influence of party factions remains significant, with notable figures like Taro Aso and Fumio Kishida still holding sway over vote distribution within the party [3] Membership and Voting Changes - The number of eligible voting members for this election has decreased to approximately 915,600, a drop of over 140,000 from the previous election, attributed to a decline in overall party membership and new voting eligibility rules [4] - The election will utilize a voting system where the total votes are divided between party members and local supporters, with a total of 590 votes available in the first round [4]