竞泰资本 在刚刚结束的12月美联储（FOMC）会议上，央行如预期降息25个基点，同时还宣布了一项新计划：开 始买入约400亿美元的短期国债，相当于悄悄"扩表"（增加资产负债表规模）。 但真正让市场震惊的，不是这些操作本身，而是美联储主席鲍威尔在会后说的一句话："官方公布的就 业增长数据，可能被严重高估了，实际情况甚至可能是负增长。" 简单说，大家一直以为美国就业市场很强劲——这是支撑经济、支撑消费的关键。但如果连就业都在悄 悄变差，那整个经济的"底子"就没看起来那么稳。 这也解释了为什么通胀还没回到目标，美联储却急着降息——因为他们看到的内部数据，可能比公开数 字更糟。更重要的是，这一表态打开了未来更大规模宽松政策的大门。如果劳动力市场真的在走弱，美 联储很可能比市场预期的更早、更多地降息。 01 |就业数据可能"注水"了 12月美联储会议表面上很平静——只是按预期降息25个基点，把利率降到3.5%–3.75%。但真正重要的 信息藏在细节里。 高盛首席经济学家David Mericle指出："今天最关键的新消息是，鲍威尔和美联储内部团队认为，美国 官方公布的月度就业数据（即'非农就业'）每个月多算了大约6万个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data has faced increasing scrutiny for systematic overestimation, leading to significant downward revisions that impact market perceptions and monetary policy decisions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Employment Data Issues - The BLS employment data often appears strong upon initial release but is frequently revised downward in subsequent months, raising concerns about the accuracy of the reported figures [1][3]. - Statistical biases, such as the "birth-death adjustment" model, contribute to the overestimation of employment figures, as it assumes a consistent influx of new businesses that may not reflect reality [1][3]. - Alternative data sources like the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and Business Employment Dynamics (BED) provide more reliable employment figures, indicating that BLS has overestimated job growth by approximately 800,000 positions in 2023 [1][3]. Group 2: Market and Monetary Policy Implications - A significant downward revision of 818,000 jobs in August 2024 marked the largest adjustment in nearly a decade, influencing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points [3][4]. - The anticipated further downward revision of 550,000 jobs in September 2025 could lead to a more aggressive monetary policy response, potentially increasing the expected rate cut from 25 to 50 basis points [4][6]. - The ongoing adjustments to employment data highlight the need for the Federal Reserve to acknowledge economic slowdown, which may accelerate the pace of monetary easing [4][6]. Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The political implications of interest rate cuts are significant, especially in an election year, as they can temporarily boost stock markets and consumer confidence, benefiting the ruling party [6]. - The perception of the Federal Reserve's independence is challenged by the timing of monetary policy decisions in relation to employment data revisions, raising concerns about potential political influences [6]. - The persistent overestimation of employment data is not an isolated incident but reflects a structural bias in statistical methods, necessitating a more cautious approach from investors who should consider administrative data and market signals for economic assessments [6].

2025.08. 02 微信编辑 | 七三 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 本文字数：365，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，当地时间8月1日，美国总统特朗普总统在社交媒体"真实社交"发文， 指责劳工统计局 局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗在2024年美国大选前"人为夸大"就业数据，要求立即将其解职 ，并由"更有 能力的人选"接替。 特朗普称该局曾在2024年3月和大选前数月严重高估新增就业岗位，认为此举旨在助推副总统哈里 斯胜选。他同时批评美联储大选前下调利率"操控市场"，并暗示应撤换主席鲍威尔。 美国劳工部长洛丽·查韦斯-德雷默当天宣布，美国劳工统计局副局长威廉·威亚特罗夫斯基将出任代 理局长，接替埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗。 特朗普称已收到访华邀请，外交部回应 ...