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尿素早评:供强需弱格局难改反弹空间有限-20250819
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 02:41
Group 1: Report's Core View - The rebound of urea prices is limited due to the persistent pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic urea market. If export demand fails to supplement, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. Group 2: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices showed an upward trend on August 18 compared to August 15, with UR01 in Shandong rising by 0.98% (17 yuan/ton), UR01 in Shanxi rising by 1.76% (30 yuan/ton), UR05 rising by 0.39% (7 yuan/ton), and UR09 rising by 0.58% (10 yuan/ton) [1]. - Domestic spot prices of small - particle urea also increased in some regions, such as in Henan by 1.16% (20 yuan/ton), in Hebei by 0.58% (10 yuan/ton), and in Jiangsu by 1.75% (30 yuan/ton) [1]. - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 23 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Upstream coal prices and downstream product prices (compound fertilizer, melamine) remained unchanged [1]. 2. Supply and Demand Situation - The daily production of urea is close to 190,000 tons, at a high level, and the supply pressure is still large [1]. - The inventory accumulation of enterprises is not significant mainly due to the increase in port collection, but the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 860,000 tons [1]. - Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season, and if export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face downward pressure [1].