尿素期货价格底部明朗
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尿素早评20251114:价格底部或逐步明朗-20251114
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 02:24
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, the price is supported at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1658 yuan/ton on November 13, up 3 yuan (0.18%) from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1731 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.17%); UR09 closed at 1754 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.34%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - granular): In Hebei, it was 1640 yuan/ton on November 13, up 10 yuan (0.61%); in Jiangsu, it was 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.63%) [1] - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained unchanged at 2980 yuan/ton; the price of melamine in Shandong was 5093 yuan/ton on November 13, up 17 yuan (0.33%) [1] 2. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1652 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1658 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1652 yuan/ton [1] 3. Multi - empty Logic - From a valuation perspective, although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, a new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Stop profit on sold options and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]