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中金 • 全球研究 | 国别研究系列之哈萨克斯坦篇:中亚经济引擎
中金点睛· 2025-07-16 23:43
Core Viewpoint - The government of Kazakhstan is committed to deepening and broadening reforms, emphasizing comprehensive economic and social reforms to achieve economic structure adjustment and effective growth by 2029, aiming to double the national economy size to $450 billion [3][14]. Group 1: Economic Structure and Reforms - Kazakhstan's economic development is focused on four reform areas: accelerating manufacturing development and diversifying industries, transitioning to a green economy, leveraging transportation logistics potential to become a Eurasian transport hub, and stimulating private enterprise [14]. - The "Just Economy" reform concept proposed by President Tokayev aims to promote effective and inclusive growth, moving away from state capitalism and excessive state intervention in the economy [10][14]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Investment - Kazakhstan has experienced rapid economic growth since 2000, with a nominal GDP of 131.6 trillion tenge projected for 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 20% from 1994 to 2024 [15]. - Strong growth in consumption and investment is noted, with consumption accounting for 54% of nominal GDP in 2024, and real GDP growth expected at 4.8% [16][22]. Group 3: Industry and Mining - The energy and mining sectors are foundational to Kazakhstan's economy, with oil and gas expected to account for 12% of GDP and 64% of exports in 2024 [4]. - Kazakhstan is a significant player in the global mining sector, with a diverse range of mineral resources, including being the world's largest uranium producer and holding substantial reserves of other key minerals [32][34]. Group 4: Capital Market and Financial Development - The Astana International Financial Center (AIFC) aims to become a commercial and financial hub connecting Central Asia with the East and West, facilitating the privatization of state-owned enterprises and attracting foreign investment [5][54]. - The capital market is undergoing reforms, with significant increases in the number of IPOs and the establishment of a more transparent asset management system [5][55]. Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Kazakhstan is positioned as a crucial transport hub along the New Eurasian Land Bridge, with significant growth in rail transport volumes, including a 13% increase in cargo transported between Kazakhstan and China in 2024 [40][42]. - The Middle Corridor, a key international transport route, has seen a 62% increase in cargo volume in 2024, highlighting its growing strategic importance [41]. Group 6: Agriculture - Kazakhstan is a major agricultural producer in Central Asia, with over 22 million hectares of arable land, making it a key player in the global grain market [43][44]. - The government aims to transform agriculture from primary production to high-value processing, with a target to triple agricultural exports by 2030 [44].