工业品通胀预期
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国债衍生品周报-20250803
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 01:45
Group 1: Core View - After the Politburo meeting, macro - policies continue to exert force, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [3] Group 2: Factors Affecting the Bond Market Bullish Factors - The Politburo meeting set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy, promoting a decline in social financing costs and supporting the bond market sentiment [3] - After the Politburo meeting, the anti - involution statement was mild, and no unexpected growth - stabilizing policies were introduced. The end of negative news promoted market improvement [3] Bearish Factors - The anti - involution policy on the supply side boosts the inflation expectation of industrial products, short - term suppressing the bond market sentiment and causing the yield to rise [3] - Policy expectations and risk sentiment dominate the market. The bond market has fallen sharply since early July, and the long - term Treasury bond yield is close to 1.75% [3] Group 3: Data Presented Treasury Bond Yields - Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y Treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [4] Funding Rates - Data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted average rates (1 - day, 7 - day) and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/08 to 2025/04 are shown [4] Treasury Bond Term Spreads - Data on 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [5] Treasury Bond Futures Positions and Trading Volumes - Positions and trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are presented with different time intervals [7][8] Treasury Bond Futures Basis - Data on the basis of the current - quarter contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are presented with different time intervals [9][10][11][13] Treasury Bond Futures Inter - period Spreads - Data on the inter - period spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are presented with different time intervals [15][17][18][19] Treasury Bond Futures Cross - variety Spreads - Data on TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL cross - variety spreads are presented with different time intervals [20][21]