炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：熊园观察 国盛证券首席经济学家，熊园 博士 国盛证券宏观分析师，穆仁文 事件：2月10日，央行发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》（后文简称《报告》），并设有4 个专栏，分别为《财政金融协同支持扩内需》、《持续提升绿色金融质效 服务经济社会绿色低碳转 型》、《从资管产品与银行存款的合并视角看流动性总量》、《实施一次性信用修复政策 支持个人高 效便捷重塑信用》。 核心观点：本次报告的定调基本延续此前Q3报告、Q4货政例会、1.15国新办发布会等的表述，包括对 国内经济延续乐观、继续"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"、"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"等。 但相较Q3报告，也有不少新变化，重点关注两方面，一是政策定调上新增"把促进经济稳定增长作为货 币政策的重要考量"，指向未来基本面走弱仍是触发货币宽松的重要变量；二是社会融资成本方面，从 上季度的"推动成本下降"变为"促进成本低位运行"，预示央行在降息操作上会更加谨慎，应较难看到快 速的、大幅的、持续的降息操作。本次报告的专栏信息量也较大，一是专栏3讨论了居民存款"流失"对 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 11 年 月 日 宏观点评 存款"流失"的变与不变—央行四季度货币政策报告 6 大信号 事件：2 月 10 日，央行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报 告》（后文简称《报告》）。 核心结论：本次报告的定调基本延续此前 Q3 报告、Q4 货政例会、1.15 国新办发布会等的表述，包括对国内经济延续乐观，继续"实施好适度 宽松的货币政策"、"着力扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量" 等。但相较 Q3 报告，也有不少新变化，重点关注两方面，一是政策定 调上新增"把促进经济稳定增长作为货币政策的重要考量"，指向未来 基本面走弱仍是触发货币宽松的重要变量；二是社会融资成本方面， 从上季度的"推动成本下降"变为"促进成本低位运行"，预示央行在 降息操作上会更加谨慎，应较难看到快速的、大幅的、持续的降息操 作。本次报告的专栏信息量也较大，一是专栏 3 讨论了居民存款"流 失"对流动性的影响，明确指出居民存款流向资管产品等，确实会导致 "银行负债端结构变化"，但并不会使得"整个金融体系和实体经济的 流动性状况也会随之发生类似较大的变化"；二是 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank maintains an optimistic view on the domestic economy, expecting stable growth conditions for 2026, supported by solid foundations, new growth drivers, and strong policy support[2] - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "appropriate easing" and the importance of promoting stable economic growth as a key consideration[7] - The social financing cost outlook has shifted from "promoting cost reduction" to "promoting low-cost operation," indicating a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts[8] Group 2: Global Economic Concerns - The central bank has alleviated concerns about the global economy, citing short-term resilience in growth, but notes a divergence in performance among major economies[3] - Risks highlighted include persistent inflation, cooling labor markets, and increasing global trade uncertainties[3] - The central bank emphasizes the need for enhanced counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to improve macroeconomic governance[4] Group 3: Inflation and Price Trends - Global inflation remains sticky, with ongoing monitoring of the de-inflation process, particularly in the U.S., U.K., and Japan[6] - Domestic inflation shows positive changes, with the CPI rising to its highest level since March 2023 by the end of 2025, supported by improved supply-demand matching[6] - The central bank prioritizes promoting reasonable price recovery as a key aspect of monetary policy[6] Group 4: Banking Sector Dynamics - The report discusses the "loss" of bank deposits, indicating that while asset reallocation affects bank liabilities, it does not significantly alter overall liquidity in the financial system[9] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans in December 2025 was 3.15%, down 0.09 percentage points from September, with corporate loans at 3.1% and personal housing loans stable at 3.06%[8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the monetary policy in the first quarter will focus on reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural interest rate reductions to support economic growth and liquidity [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The fiscal policy will be proactive, with monetary policy actively coordinating to support it, including a potential 50 basis points (BP) RRR cut, which could release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [1] - Structural interest rate cuts are seen as a more effective approach, with the central bank likely to target specific monetary policy tools to lower rates in key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and financing for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - A comprehensive interest rate cut will depend on external and internal stability, with the potential for 1-2 rate cuts throughout the year, totaling a reduction of 10-20 BP, which would influence the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and subsequently affect loan and deposit rates [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 25, the central bank continued to increase the volume of MLF operations, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. The yields of short - term treasury bonds were strong while those of medium and long - term bonds were weak. Treasury futures declined across the board. The domestic economic fundamentals showed a marginal slowdown in industrial growth and social retail in November, with fixed - asset investment in continuous negative growth and stable unemployment. The financial data was structurally differentiated, with an unexpected increase in social financing but weak credit. The CPI improved in November, and the PPI decline marginally expanded. Overseas, the US consumption was strong, and the market expected future interest rate cuts. Overall, the domestic economic internal momentum needs to be boosted. Next year's monetary policy will remain moderately loose, but the urgency of short - term interest rate cuts is not high. Future policy will focus on structural tools, and short - term interest rates are expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Price**: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别为108.195、105.990、102.510、112.510，较昨日分别下跌0.02%、0.03%、0.02%、0.24% [2]. - **Futures Trading Volume**: T、TF、TS、TL主力成交量分别为56411、49022、30026、95007，较昨日分别减少12732、5686、增加3525、减少15756 [2]. - **Futures Price Spread**: Different spreads showed various trends, such as the TL2603 - 2606 spread increasing by 0.00 to - 0.22, and the T2603 - 2606 spread decreasing by 0.02 to - 0.02 [2]. - **Futures Position**: T、TF、TS、TL主力持仓量分别为247563、156449、78241、143219，较昨日分别增加4062、1927、减少289、减少847. The net short positions of the top 20 in T、TF、TS、TL changed by - 203、666、 - 760、 - 1354 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Price and Yield Data - **CTD Bond Net Price**: Some CTD bonds' net prices declined, while a few increased, such as 250018.IB (6y) decreasing by 0.0285 to 100.517 and 250017.IB (2y) increasing by 0.0036 to 100.1542 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bond Yield**: The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year active treasury bonds decreased by 0.50bp and 0.75bp to 1.3350% and 1.3750% respectively. The 5 - year and 10 - year yields remained unchanged at 1.5800% and 1.8350% [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rate**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 4.80bp to 1.2480%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 18.68bp to 1.5668%. Some Shibor rates also changed [2]. - **LPR Rate**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Policy and Market News - **Central Bank Policy**: The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, emphasizing the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, and maintaining stable capital markets without mentioning the real estate market. On December 25, the central bank carried out 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount, marking the 10th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2][3]. - **Real Estate Policy**: Beijing optimized its housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing the purchase conditions for non - Beijing households and adjusting mortgage policies for multi - child families [3].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China has reported a continuous decline in social financing costs this year, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year [1] - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans is also at 3.1%, down about 8 basis points from the previous year [1] - Various monetary policy tools have been employed to create a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery and financial market stability [1] - The transparency of corporate financing costs has improved, particularly benefiting small and micro enterprises [1] - Consumer loan interest burdens have been alleviated, supporting consumption capacity and demand [2] - The overall financing costs for enterprises and residents have decreased, indicating a loose monetary condition and ample capital supply [2] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Financing Costs - The People's Bank of China has utilized multiple monetary policy tools to lower social financing costs, resulting in a favorable environment for economic recovery and financial stability [1] - The average interest rates for new loans (both corporate and personal housing) have significantly decreased compared to the previous year, indicating effective monetary policy execution [1] Impact on Enterprises - The comprehensive financing cost for enterprises has become more transparent, with specific examples showing reduced costs for small businesses [1] - A logistics company in Yantai was able to secure a loan with no additional fees, reflecting the improved financing conditions [1] Consumer Financing - Policies such as consumer loan interest subsidies have effectively reduced personal interest burdens, enhancing consumer purchasing power [2] - A case study of a consumer loan for a car shows potential savings on interest due to these supportive policies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in interest rates for bank deposits in China, highlighting the challenges faced by ordinary citizens in asset allocation as banks begin to phase out high-interest deposit products starting in 2025 [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Changes - As of September 2025, the average interest rate for fixed-term deposits across over 400 banks in China has decreased by 0.32 percentage points since the beginning of the year, reaching a five-year low [3]. - The People's Bank of China reported that the total RMB deposits in financial institutions reached 285.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, but the growth rate has slowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. Types of Deposit Products Being Phased Out - "Tiered interest" deposit products, which adjust rates based on central bank interest rate changes, are being reduced from over 20 banks in 2024 to only 8 by September 2025 [4]. - "Step-up" high-interest deposits, which offer increasing rates over time, are also being discontinued, with one bank halting its "Step Up" product in May 2025 [4]. - Exclusive high-interest deposits targeting specific groups, such as the elderly or military personnel, are being eliminated, with over 30 banks already canceling such offerings in 2025 [4]. Reasons for Changes - Banks are halting high-interest deposits to manage funding costs more effectively as interest rate liberalization progresses, which is crucial for maintaining profitability amid rising non-performing loan pressures [5]. - The average net interest margin for commercial banks fell to 1.76% in the first half of 2025, down 0.25 percentage points from 2023, indicating challenges in profitability [6]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to curb excessive high-interest deposit competition, which poses systemic risks to the financial market [6]. Investment Strategies - Diversification is emphasized as a key strategy in the current low-interest environment, suggesting a balanced allocation among various financial instruments such as savings, government bonds, and low-risk investment products [7]. - The average yield for fixed-income investment products was reported at 3.2% in Q3 2025, which remains competitive compared to traditional deposits [8]. - Caution is advised regarding high-interest deposit products that may have hidden conditions or penalties for early withdrawal, as these can diminish actual returns [8][11]. Long-term Financial Management - The article suggests that individuals should adapt to a prolonged low-interest rate environment by enhancing financial literacy and exploring diverse investment options beyond traditional bank deposits [12]. - For risk-averse individuals, government-supported retirement financial products are recommended, while those with higher risk tolerance may consider equity investments like index funds for potentially better long-term returns [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has been appropriately loosened this year, with increased macroeconomic regulation efforts [1] - Various monetary policy tools are being utilized to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - The effectiveness of the loan market quotation rate reform continues to be released, enhancing the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [1] Financial Environment - Social financing costs are at historically low levels, indicating a supportive environment for businesses [1] - The foreign exchange market is generally balanced, with a stable current account surplus and sufficient foreign exchange reserves [1] - The RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable equilibrium level, with two-way fluctuations [1] Market Stability - Overall, the financial market operates smoothly, reflecting the effectiveness of the current monetary policy measures [1]

Group 1: Core View - After the Politburo meeting, macro - policies continue to exert force, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [3] Group 2: Factors Affecting the Bond Market Bullish Factors - The Politburo meeting set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy, promoting a decline in social financing costs and supporting the bond market sentiment [3] - After the Politburo meeting, the anti - involution statement was mild, and no unexpected growth - stabilizing policies were introduced. The end of negative news promoted market improvement [3] Bearish Factors - The anti - involution policy on the supply side boosts the inflation expectation of industrial products, short - term suppressing the bond market sentiment and causing the yield to rise [3] - Policy expectations and risk sentiment dominate the market. The bond market has fallen sharply since early July, and the long - term Treasury bond yield is close to 1.75% [3] Group 3: Data Presented Treasury Bond Yields - Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y Treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [4] Funding Rates - Data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted average rates (1 - day, 7 - day) and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/08 to 2025/04 are shown [4] Treasury Bond Term Spreads - Data on 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [5] Treasury Bond Futures Positions and Trading Volumes - Positions and trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are presented with different time intervals [7][8] Treasury Bond Futures Basis - Data on the basis of the current - quarter contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are presented with different time intervals [9][10][11][13] Treasury Bond Futures Inter - period Spreads - Data on the inter - period spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are presented with different time intervals [15][17][18][19] Treasury Bond Futures Cross - variety Spreads - Data on TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL cross - variety spreads are presented with different time intervals [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, which is expected to reduce financing costs for the real economy and homebuyers [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The PBOC announced a policy interest rate cut of 0.1 percentage points, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the LPR [1]. - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was reduced from 1.5% to 1.4%, aligning with market expectations for the LPR to decline [1]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, down about 4 basis points from the previous month and 50 basis points year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Impact on Financing Costs - The reduction in LPR is expected to effectively lower the comprehensive financing costs for the real economy and the costs for homebuyers [1]. - For a mortgage of 1 million yuan over 30 years, the recent LPR decrease could reduce the total repayment amount by approximately 19,000 yuan [1]. Group 3: Bank Responses - Commercial banks, including China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank, have begun to lower deposit rates, with the 1-year fixed deposit rate now at 0.95% [2][3]. - The simultaneous decline of LPR and deposit rates is seen as beneficial for maintaining the stability of banks' net interest margins while effectively reducing financing costs for the economy [3].