Economic Outlook - The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina has revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2025, citing a more significant decline in retail trade and industrial output than previously expected in the second and third quarters [1] - The service export and tourism sectors, which previously contributed significantly to economic growth, have also stagnated [1] Inflation and Cost Pressures - Inflationary pressures have intensified compared to the March forecast, with net exports showing signs of weakness [1] - In the third quarter of 2025, inflation is expected to accelerate due to base effects, significant increases in food and electricity prices, and rapid growth in average real wages impacting service prices [1] - Industrial output has shown a year-on-year decline in the first nine months of 2025, indicating increased cost pressures and challenges to domestic industry competitiveness [1] Currency and Monetary Policy - Despite economic pressures, the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves increased significantly in the third quarter of 2025 [1] - The Central Bank did not adjust any monetary policy measures during this quarter, with the reserve calculation basis (mainly short-term domestic currency) continuing to rise, although the growth rate of the money multiplier has slightly slowed [1] Trade and Fiscal Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the current account deficit narrowed slightly year-on-year, with most of the goods account deficit covered by net inflows from the services account and remittances from abroad [2] - In the third quarter, the trade goods deficit increased year-on-year [2] - Fiscal revenues saw an increase in indirect tax income in the third quarter of 2025, but the budget expenditure structure remains poor, with funds primarily allocated to current expenditures and capital expenditures at a very low level [2]