中新社金边8月25日电柬埔寨财经部在最新发布的报告中，将该国2025年经济增长预期由年初的6.3%下 调至5%。 财经部报告指出，柬埔寨和泰国陆地边境关闭以及美国关税措施成为今年柬国经济增长放缓的主要因 素。在此之前，柬埔寨经济增长的乐观前景得益于出口导向型行业的持续强劲表现、旅游业的稳定增长 以及农业部门的稳定扩张。 此间媒体当地时间25日援引柬埔寨财经部报告指出，柬泰陆地边境关闭导致该国制造业活动受阻，原材 料运输及出口业务受限，并抑制国际游客的正常流动。 另一方面，美国加征关税的措施也阻碍了支撑柬埔寨经济的关键行业增长，尤其是纺织服装、家具、轮 胎和电子组件等产品，这将导致该国工业整体增长趋势低于预期。 柬埔寨财经部报告称，2025年该国工业整体预计增长7.1%，服务业增长3.8%，农业增长0.9%，建筑业 继续温和复苏，旅游业表现出较强韧性。值得指出的是，今年柬埔寨对欧盟、中国等其他市场的出口预 计将继续保持良好态势。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

新华财经悉尼8月12日电（记者李晓渝）澳大利亚储备银行（央行）12日宣布年内第三次降息，将基准 利率下调至3.6%，为2023年4月以后的最低水平，这符合市场普遍预期。同时，澳央行也下调了该国经 济增长预期。分析人士认为，澳央行年内可能在11月还有一次降息，并且可能在明年继续降息，以刺激 经济增长。 降息条件更充分 澳央行在今年2月和5月两次降息后，市场曾普遍认为第三次降息会发生在7月。但出乎意料的是，澳央 行在7月继续按兵不动，直到8月才第三次采取降息措施。这次降息时间延后的背后逻辑是，目前降息的 条件要比7月时更加充分。 7月货币政策会议前，澳大利亚统计局公布了5月通胀数据。这份数据显示5月澳大利亚的截尾均值通胀 率从4月的2.8%降至2.4%，达到2021年11月以后的最低水平。澳央行曾多次表示，其职责是要让通胀率 维持在2-3%这一目标区间以内，而其目标是让通胀率降至目标区间的中点位置附近并企稳。因此，5月 通胀数据其实已经对澳央行在7月采取降息措施的可能性形成了支撑。 不过，从结果来看，澳央行显然认为月度通胀数据并不能如季度数据一样作为衡量去通胀成效的关键指 标。澳央行行长米歇尔·布洛克在7月宣布维 ...

Economic Outlook - Thailand's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to a range of 1.5% to 2% due to political instability and uncertainty affecting domestic economic drivers, particularly exports and government budget spending [1] - The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2025 by 1.1%, now predicting a growth rate of only 1.8% due to global economic uncertainties leading to domestic economic weakness [1] - The Thai Commercial Bank's Economic Information Center has also reduced its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.4%, attributing the decline to trade tensions, changes in US policy, domestic economic vulnerabilities, and limited fiscal space [1] Trade and Exports - Despite a 14.9% increase in exports in the first five months of the year, this growth is primarily attributed to a surge in imports before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension by the US [2] - If the US imposes a 10% tariff, Thailand's economic growth rate may stabilize around 2%, but an increase to 18% could reduce the growth rate to approximately 1.5% [2] - The Thai Chamber of Commerce predicts that exports may shrink by over 10% in the second half of the year, potentially leading to near-zero growth for the entire year of 2025, which would directly impact manufacturing and employment [2] Political Stability and Investment - The ongoing political uncertainty, particularly with the suspension of Prime Minister Petongtarn, raises concerns about the stability of the current ruling coalition and the potential for government collapse before the next budget is passed [1] - Foreign investors have been net sellers of Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total sell-off of $3.9 billion, reflecting concerns over the political outlook [2] - The performance of the Thai economy in the second half of the year will depend on several variables, including US Federal Reserve monetary policy, a rebound in tourism, and the speed of domestic budget spending [3]

Global Economic Outlook - International financial institutions have recently downgraded global economic growth forecasts for this year, with the World Bank reducing its projection from 2.7% to 2.3% [1][3] - The World Bank's report indicates that nearly 70% of economies are experiencing a slowdown, with the potential for the average growth rate in the 2020s to be the lowest since the 1960s [1][3] Impact of Tariffs - The reports highlight that the U.S. tariff policies are not only hindering global economic growth but are also detrimental to the U.S. economy itself [1][6] - The OECD has also lowered its global growth forecast for the next two years to 2.9%, citing increased trade barriers and uncertainty in economic policies as significant factors affecting business and consumer confidence [4][6] U.S. Economic Projections - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been significantly reduced from 2.3% to 1.4% for this year, with projections for 2024 and 2025 at 1.6% and 1.5% respectively [3][4] - The U.S. economy has shown signs of contraction, with a reported GDP shrinkage of 0.2% in the first quarter, marking the first decline in nearly three years [12][14] Consumer and Business Impact - New tariffs on steel-derived products, effective from June 23, are expected to increase prices for consumers significantly, with some products potentially tripling in cost [6][9] - The aggressive tariff policies have led to job losses in the U.S. manufacturing sector, with estimates indicating a loss of 75,000 jobs since the implementation of steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018 [9][12] Trade Data Fluctuations - U.S. trade data has shown significant volatility, with a sharp decline in imports in April due to reduced demand from importers and increasing caution in the market [15] - The overall role of trade in the U.S. economy is expected to weaken, reminiscent of conditions seen during the early COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis [15]

新华财经巴黎6月3日电（记者李文昕）经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）3日发布经济展望报告，预计 2025年和2026年全球经济均将增长2.9%，较今年3月的预测值再次下调，分别减少0.2和0.1个百分点。 贸易壁垒增加不确定性增强 经合组织秘书长马赛厄斯·科尔曼表示，"全球经济已从复苏增长和通胀下降的时期转向更加不确定的轨 道。"而报告卷首语则写道："过去几个月，我们看到贸易壁垒显著增加，经济和贸易政策的不确定性也 随之增加。这种不确定性的急剧上升对企业和消费者信心产生了负面影响，并将抑制贸易和投资。在这 种充满挑战和不确定性的环境下，我们下调了增长预期……全球各地都将感受到经济前景减弱的影响， 几乎没有例外。" 报告指出，经济预测基于的假设是今年5月中旬生效的双边关税税率将持续至2026年，预计双边关税税 率上调和政策不确定性上升将对企业投资和贸易增长造成压力，同时，脆弱的市场情绪和持续的生活成 本压力，叠加贸易成本上升对最终商品价格的影响以及部分国家劳动力市场疲软，将造成大多数经济体 的消费支出走弱。 报告说，当前全球经济前景日益严峻，贸易壁垒大幅增加、金融环境趋紧、企业和消费者信心减弱以及 政策不确定性加 ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Korea's Governor Lee Chang-yong indicated that the downward revision of economic growth expectations is primarily influenced by the construction industry [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Expectations - The economic growth forecast has been adjusted downward, reflecting challenges faced by the construction sector [1] - The construction industry is identified as a significant factor impacting overall economic performance [1]

Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy is expected to harm key sectors in Thailand, including automotive, food processing, and agriculture, potentially causing losses up to 800 billion THB (approximately 24 billion USD), which is about 4% of Thailand's GDP [1] - Thailand's GDP for 2024 is projected to be around 19.8 trillion THB [1] - The U.S. is Thailand's largest trading partner, with exports reaching 55 billion USD last year [1] Group 2: Affected Industries - The automotive industry, employing around 700,000 people, is anticipated to be severely impacted, with a 25% tariff on Thai automotive and parts exports likely leading to a decline in exports [1] - In the first two months of 2025, total vehicle exports from Thailand were 143,644 units, a decrease of 18.12% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The processed food and seafood sectors previously enjoyed zero tariffs, with the U.S. being a major market for Thai seafood, accounting for over 25% of U.S. tuna imports, valued at 584 million USD [1] Group 3: Tourism and Agriculture - The tourism sector in Thailand is facing challenges due to U.S. tariffs, which may increase prices and weaken purchasing power, affecting American tourists' travel plans [2] - In the previous year, Thailand welcomed 1.03 million American tourists, with an average spending of over 70,000 THB per person [2] - Thai pig farmers oppose the government's proposal to import U.S. pork, fearing it will undermine local livestock industries [2] Group 4: Economic Growth Forecast - Thailand has revised its economic growth forecast downward, with exports expected to grow only 2.3% this year, significantly lower than the previous estimate of 4.4% [2]

Economic Performance - Singapore's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q1, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter [1] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) revised the GDP growth forecast for the year from 1.0%-3.0% to 0.0%-2.0% due to uncertainties such as the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [1][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing output grew by 5.0% year-on-year in Q1, a decrease from 7.4% in the previous quarter, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.9% [1] - Construction output increased by 4.6% year-on-year, maintaining the previous quarter's growth rate of 4.4%, but saw a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3% [1] - Wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing sectors grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter [2] External Factors - MTI highlighted that the US's imposition of a 10% "baseline tariff" and increased tariffs on countries with significant trade surpluses will negatively impact global trade and economic growth [3] - The decline in external demand is expected to adversely affect Singapore's economy and the ASEAN region, leading to reduced consumer confidence and domestic investment [3][4] Financial Sector Impact - The financial and insurance sectors are anticipated to experience reduced trading activity due to risk-averse sentiment, negatively impacting net fees and commissions from banking and financial services [5] - The uncertain economic environment may suppress corporate capital investment and limit credit intermediation activities [5] Overall Economic Outlook - MTI expects external demand to weaken significantly by the end of the year, particularly affecting export-oriented sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade [4] - The economic growth forecast for Singapore is expected to slow from 4.4% last year to between 0.0% and 2.0% this year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The EY Item Club predicts that the UK economic growth rate for 2026 will be halved due to the impact of comprehensive tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, leading to a significant downward revision of growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Economic Growth Forecasts - The growth forecast for the UK economy in 2025 has been revised down from 1% to 0.8%, and for 2026 from 1.6% to 0.9% [1] - The forecast for household spending growth has been reduced from 1.6% to 0.9% for this year [2] - Business investment growth is now expected to be only 0.3%, down from a previous forecast of 2% [2] Trade and Investment Impact - The UK is expected to experience a decline in exports, with a projected decrease of 0.5% in 2025 and 0.4% in 2026 [2] - The overall economic outlook indicates that commercial investment will be particularly hard hit, with almost no growth anticipated this year [1] Government Financial Planning - The bleak economic outlook poses challenges for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, whose fiscal plans are based on an anticipated economic growth of nearly 2% in 2026 [1] - The downward revision of economic expectations increases the risk that Reeves will need to raise taxes or cut spending to adhere to fiscal rules [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite the economic challenges, the EY Item Club expects the Bank of England to maintain a gradual interest rate cut cycle, with the possibility of accelerating easing in the future [2] - However, it is warned that inflation rates are likely to remain above 3% for most of 2025 [2]