经济观察网据央视新闻消息，当地时间11日，德国多家重要经济研究机构分别发布的冬季预测报告显 示，受对美国出口明显下滑等因素影响，2025年德国经济预计仅增长0.1%，较秋季预测的0.2%增幅再 度下调。报告称，美国持续大范围加征关税对全球经济和贸易造成压力，而德国经济也正处于深刻的结 构性变革中，预计2026年和2027年德国经济增速分别为0.8%和1.1%，较此前预测均下调0.5个百分点。 ...

此次发布预测的机构包括慕尼黑经济研究所、基尔世界经济研究所、哈雷经济研究所和莱布尼茨经济研 究所。今年以来，这些机构已因美国大幅加征关税而多次下调2025年德国经济增长预期。 （文章来源：新华社） 报告普遍认为，美国加征关税导致德国对美出口明显承压，加之德国在年中宣布设立的大规模基础设施 基金等财政举措刺激效果低于预期，成为此次下调预期的主要原因。基尔世界经济研究所表示，受关税 引发的贸易争端以及德国自身竞争力减弱影响，预计2025年德国出口将下降0.2%，其中对美出口跌幅 尤为突出。 慕尼黑经济研究所表示，美国持续大范围加征关税对全球经济和贸易造成压力，而德国经济也正处于深 刻的结构性变革中。该机构报告说，预计2026年和2027年德国经济增速分别为0.8%和1.1%，较此前预 测均下调0.5个百分点。 新华财经柏林12月11日电（记者车云龙）德国多家重要经济研究机构11日分别发布的冬季预测报告显 示，受对美国出口明显下滑等因素影响，2025年德国经济预计仅增长0.1%，较秋季预测的0.2%增幅再 度下调。 ...

新华社柏林12月11日电（记者车云龙）德国多家重要经济研究机构11日分别发布的冬季预测报告显示， 受对美国出口明显下滑等因素影响，2025年德国经济预计仅增长0.1%，较秋季预测的0.2%增幅再度下 调。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Japan's economy has contracted in the third quarter of this year, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports, with a quarter-on-quarter GDP decline of 0.4% and an annualized decline of 1.8% [1] - External demand has significantly affected Japan's economic performance, with exports of goods and services decreasing by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, while imports fell by 0.1% due to weak domestic demand, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [1] - Domestic consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, saw a slight increase of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, while business investment in equipment rose by 1.0%, and public demand increased by 0.5%. However, private residential investment dropped by 9.4%, and inventory changes also hindered domestic demand growth, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the downward pressure from U.S. tariff policies and ongoing inflation leading to weak consumer spending [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.5%, marking the fourth rate cut this year [1] Economic Outlook - The Russian economy is returning to a balanced growth trajectory, although inflation expectations remain high in recent months [1] - The annual inflation rate in Russia is projected to be between 6.5% and 7.0% by the end of 2025 [1] - The Central Bank will maintain a tight monetary policy as needed to bring inflation back to target levels [1] Growth Projections - The economic growth forecast for Russia in 2025 has been revised down from 1%-2% to 0.5%-1% [1]

Economic Outlook - Cambodia's Ministry of Economy has revised the economic growth forecast for 2025 from 6.3% to 5% due to various factors impacting the economy [1] - The closure of the land border with Thailand and U.S. tariff measures are identified as primary reasons for the slowdown in economic growth this year [1] Sector Performance - The optimistic outlook for Cambodia's economy was previously supported by strong performance in export-oriented industries, stable growth in tourism, and steady expansion in agriculture [1] - The closure of the Cambodia-Thailand border has disrupted manufacturing activities, limited raw material transportation and export operations, and hindered the normal flow of international tourists [1] Industrial Growth Projections - The Ministry of Economy projects that the overall industrial growth in Cambodia will be 7.1% in 2025, with the service sector expected to grow by 3.8%, agriculture by 0.9%, and a moderate recovery in the construction sector [1] - The tourism sector is showing strong resilience despite the challenges faced [1] - Exports to other markets, including the EU and China, are expected to remain robust this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced its third interest rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.6%, the lowest level since April 2023, in response to economic conditions and inflation trends [1][2]. Interest Rate Cuts - The RBA's decision to cut rates in August was influenced by more favorable conditions compared to July, where inflation data showed a decrease in the trimmed mean inflation rate from 2.8% in April to 2.4% in May, the lowest since November 2021 [2][3]. - The RBA had previously held rates steady in July, indicating that monthly inflation data alone was not sufficient to justify a rate cut, as they preferred to wait for more comprehensive quarterly data [2][3]. Economic Growth Expectations - The RBA has revised its GDP growth forecasts downward, projecting a decrease from 2.1% to 1.7% for 2025, and from 2.2% to 2% for mid-2026 [4]. - The downward revision is attributed to expected low productivity growth, which is anticipated to impact wage growth, income, and household spending [4][5]. Labor Market and Inflation - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in May to 4.3% in June, exceeding the RBA's expectations, which has led analysts to suggest that the RBA should consider further rate cuts [3][4]. - Despite a slight improvement in household income and some financial indicators, the labor market remains tight, with productivity growth not rebounding, keeping unit labor costs high [5][6]. Future Rate Cuts - Analysts expect the RBA to implement another rate cut in November, with potential further cuts in 2024, as the economic outlook remains uncertain [6][7]. - The RBA's Governor has indicated a general agreement with market expectations for additional rate cuts if economic performance does not improve or if unemployment rises significantly [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has continued its dovish stance by cutting the cash rate to 3.6%, marking the third rate cut of the year amid a bleak economic growth outlook [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The RBA has significantly downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%, reflecting a more severe economic landscape [5]. - The long-term productivity growth assumption has been reduced from 1.0% to 0.7%, indicating a potential slowdown in the economy's growth capacity from 2.25% to 2.0% [5]. - The report attributes the lowered growth expectations to weaker-than-expected public demand growth at the beginning of 2025 [5]. Inflation and Labor Market - Core inflation has eased to 2.7%, nearing the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, providing room for monetary policy easing [7]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest level in four years, indicating initial signs of market cooling [7]. - Despite the rising unemployment, the RBA forecasts that the rate will remain stable at 4.3% until the end of 2027, suggesting a complex labor market scenario [7]. Monetary Policy Direction - The RBA's current monetary policy is perceived as still restrictive, with expectations of further easing in the future [8]. - Market predictions suggest a total rate cut of 80 basis points over the next year, bringing the cash rate down to a range of 2.85% to 3.1% [8]. - Some analysts predict a more aggressive approach, forecasting a potential 100 basis points cut within the next 12 months [8].

Economic Outlook - Thailand's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to a range of 1.5% to 2% due to political instability and uncertainty affecting domestic economic drivers, particularly exports and government budget spending [1] - The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2025 by 1.1%, now predicting a growth rate of only 1.8% due to global economic uncertainties leading to domestic economic weakness [1] - The Thai Commercial Bank's Economic Information Center has also reduced its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.4%, attributing the decline to trade tensions, changes in US policy, domestic economic vulnerabilities, and limited fiscal space [1] Trade and Exports - Despite a 14.9% increase in exports in the first five months of the year, this growth is primarily attributed to a surge in imports before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension by the US [2] - If the US imposes a 10% tariff, Thailand's economic growth rate may stabilize around 2%, but an increase to 18% could reduce the growth rate to approximately 1.5% [2] - The Thai Chamber of Commerce predicts that exports may shrink by over 10% in the second half of the year, potentially leading to near-zero growth for the entire year of 2025, which would directly impact manufacturing and employment [2] Political Stability and Investment - The ongoing political uncertainty, particularly with the suspension of Prime Minister Petongtarn, raises concerns about the stability of the current ruling coalition and the potential for government collapse before the next budget is passed [1] - Foreign investors have been net sellers of Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total sell-off of $3.9 billion, reflecting concerns over the political outlook [2] - The performance of the Thai economy in the second half of the year will depend on several variables, including US Federal Reserve monetary policy, a rebound in tourism, and the speed of domestic budget spending [3]

Global Economic Outlook - International financial institutions have recently downgraded global economic growth forecasts for this year, with the World Bank reducing its projection from 2.7% to 2.3% [1][3] - The World Bank's report indicates that nearly 70% of economies are experiencing a slowdown, with the potential for the average growth rate in the 2020s to be the lowest since the 1960s [1][3] Impact of Tariffs - The reports highlight that the U.S. tariff policies are not only hindering global economic growth but are also detrimental to the U.S. economy itself [1][6] - The OECD has also lowered its global growth forecast for the next two years to 2.9%, citing increased trade barriers and uncertainty in economic policies as significant factors affecting business and consumer confidence [4][6] U.S. Economic Projections - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been significantly reduced from 2.3% to 1.4% for this year, with projections for 2024 and 2025 at 1.6% and 1.5% respectively [3][4] - The U.S. economy has shown signs of contraction, with a reported GDP shrinkage of 0.2% in the first quarter, marking the first decline in nearly three years [12][14] Consumer and Business Impact - New tariffs on steel-derived products, effective from June 23, are expected to increase prices for consumers significantly, with some products potentially tripling in cost [6][9] - The aggressive tariff policies have led to job losses in the U.S. manufacturing sector, with estimates indicating a loss of 75,000 jobs since the implementation of steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018 [9][12] Trade Data Fluctuations - U.S. trade data has shown significant volatility, with a sharp decline in imports in April due to reduced demand from importers and increasing caution in the market [15] - The overall role of trade in the U.S. economy is expected to weaken, reminiscent of conditions seen during the early COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis [15]