波黑央行近日发布。波黑央行根据季度短期预测数据，下调了对2025年实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长的 预期。相比春季的中期宏观预测，2025年第二、三季度实际零售贸易和工业产出的下滑程度超出预期， 此前对经济增长贡献显著的服务出口及旅游业也陷入停滞。 通胀压力较三月预测更为强劲，净出口亦显疲软。2025年第三季度，受基数效应、食品与电力价格大幅 上涨，以及平均实际工资快速增长传导至服务价格等因素推动，通胀年增长率持续加速。 尽管经济承压，波黑央行外汇储备在2025年第三季度显著增加。央行在该季度未调整任何货币政策环 节，准备金计算基础(尤以短期本币为主)保持上升趋势，货币乘数增速则略有放缓。贷款增长趋势延 续，国内利率未见显著变动。 2025年第二季度，经常账户赤字在年同比层面小幅收窄，商品账户的大部分赤字由服务账户净流入及海 外侨汇覆盖。然而，第三季度外贸商品赤字再现同比增长。 财政收入方面，2025年第三季度间接税收入有所增加，但预算支出结构依然不佳——资金主要集中于经 常性支出，资本性支出仍处于极低水平。公共部门工资上调及对弱势群体的持续拨款，进一步推高了预 算总支出。不过，与前一季度相比，广义政府部门的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Germany's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 0.1%, influenced by a significant decline in exports to the United States and ongoing structural changes within the economy [1] Economic Forecast - The winter forecast reports from several major economic research institutions in Germany indicate a downward adjustment in growth expectations, with the previous forecast for 2025 being 0.2% [1] - For 2026 and 2027, the expected economic growth rates are 0.8% and 1.1% respectively, both reduced by 0.5 percentage points from earlier predictions [1] External Factors - The ongoing large-scale tariff increases imposed by the United States are exerting pressure on global economic conditions and trade, contributing to the challenges faced by the German economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Germany's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 0.1%, a decrease from the previous estimate of 0.2%, primarily due to a significant decline in exports to the United States and underwhelming effects from fiscal measures such as the large infrastructure fund established earlier this year [1] Group 1: Economic Forecasts - Multiple key economic research institutions in Germany released winter forecast reports indicating a bleak outlook for the economy [1] - Kiel Institute for the World Economy predicts a 0.2% decline in German exports for 2025, with particularly sharp drops in exports to the U.S. [1] - Munich Institute for Economic Research notes that the ongoing U.S. tariffs are exerting pressure on global trade and the German economy, which is undergoing significant structural changes [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The Munich Institute forecasts economic growth rates of 0.8% and 1.1% for Germany in 2026 and 2027, respectively, both down by 0.5 percentage points from previous estimates [1] - The institutions involved in the forecasts include the Munich Institute, Kiel Institute, Halle Institute, and Leibniz Institute, all of which have repeatedly downgraded their growth expectations for Germany in 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Germany's economy is projected to grow only 0.1% in 2025, a downward revision from the previous autumn forecast of 0.2%, primarily due to a significant decline in exports to the United States [1] Economic Forecast - Multiple key economic research institutions in Germany released winter forecast reports on December 11, indicating a bleak outlook for the economy [1] - The downward adjustment in growth expectations reflects ongoing challenges in the global trade environment, particularly with the U.S. market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Japan's economy has contracted in the third quarter of this year, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports, with a quarter-on-quarter GDP decline of 0.4% and an annualized decline of 1.8% [1] - External demand has significantly affected Japan's economic performance, with exports of goods and services decreasing by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, while imports fell by 0.1% due to weak domestic demand, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [1] - Domestic consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, saw a slight increase of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, while business investment in equipment rose by 1.0%, and public demand increased by 0.5%. However, private residential investment dropped by 9.4%, and inventory changes also hindered domestic demand growth, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the downward pressure from U.S. tariff policies and ongoing inflation leading to weak consumer spending [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.5%, marking the fourth rate cut this year [1] Economic Outlook - The Russian economy is returning to a balanced growth trajectory, although inflation expectations remain high in recent months [1] - The annual inflation rate in Russia is projected to be between 6.5% and 7.0% by the end of 2025 [1] - The Central Bank will maintain a tight monetary policy as needed to bring inflation back to target levels [1] Growth Projections - The economic growth forecast for Russia in 2025 has been revised down from 1%-2% to 0.5%-1% [1]

Economic Outlook - Cambodia's Ministry of Economy has revised the economic growth forecast for 2025 from 6.3% to 5% due to various factors impacting the economy [1] - The closure of the land border with Thailand and U.S. tariff measures are identified as primary reasons for the slowdown in economic growth this year [1] Sector Performance - The optimistic outlook for Cambodia's economy was previously supported by strong performance in export-oriented industries, stable growth in tourism, and steady expansion in agriculture [1] - The closure of the Cambodia-Thailand border has disrupted manufacturing activities, limited raw material transportation and export operations, and hindered the normal flow of international tourists [1] Industrial Growth Projections - The Ministry of Economy projects that the overall industrial growth in Cambodia will be 7.1% in 2025, with the service sector expected to grow by 3.8%, agriculture by 0.9%, and a moderate recovery in the construction sector [1] - The tourism sector is showing strong resilience despite the challenges faced [1] - Exports to other markets, including the EU and China, are expected to remain robust this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced its third interest rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.6%, the lowest level since April 2023, in response to economic conditions and inflation trends [1][2]. Interest Rate Cuts - The RBA's decision to cut rates in August was influenced by more favorable conditions compared to July, where inflation data showed a decrease in the trimmed mean inflation rate from 2.8% in April to 2.4% in May, the lowest since November 2021 [2][3]. - The RBA had previously held rates steady in July, indicating that monthly inflation data alone was not sufficient to justify a rate cut, as they preferred to wait for more comprehensive quarterly data [2][3]. Economic Growth Expectations - The RBA has revised its GDP growth forecasts downward, projecting a decrease from 2.1% to 1.7% for 2025, and from 2.2% to 2% for mid-2026 [4]. - The downward revision is attributed to expected low productivity growth, which is anticipated to impact wage growth, income, and household spending [4][5]. Labor Market and Inflation - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in May to 4.3% in June, exceeding the RBA's expectations, which has led analysts to suggest that the RBA should consider further rate cuts [3][4]. - Despite a slight improvement in household income and some financial indicators, the labor market remains tight, with productivity growth not rebounding, keeping unit labor costs high [5][6]. Future Rate Cuts - Analysts expect the RBA to implement another rate cut in November, with potential further cuts in 2024, as the economic outlook remains uncertain [6][7]. - The RBA's Governor has indicated a general agreement with market expectations for additional rate cuts if economic performance does not improve or if unemployment rises significantly [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has continued its dovish stance by cutting the cash rate to 3.6%, marking the third rate cut of the year amid a bleak economic growth outlook [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The RBA has significantly downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%, reflecting a more severe economic landscape [5]. - The long-term productivity growth assumption has been reduced from 1.0% to 0.7%, indicating a potential slowdown in the economy's growth capacity from 2.25% to 2.0% [5]. - The report attributes the lowered growth expectations to weaker-than-expected public demand growth at the beginning of 2025 [5]. Inflation and Labor Market - Core inflation has eased to 2.7%, nearing the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, providing room for monetary policy easing [7]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest level in four years, indicating initial signs of market cooling [7]. - Despite the rising unemployment, the RBA forecasts that the rate will remain stable at 4.3% until the end of 2027, suggesting a complex labor market scenario [7]. Monetary Policy Direction - The RBA's current monetary policy is perceived as still restrictive, with expectations of further easing in the future [8]. - Market predictions suggest a total rate cut of 80 basis points over the next year, bringing the cash rate down to a range of 2.85% to 3.1% [8]. - Some analysts predict a more aggressive approach, forecasting a potential 100 basis points cut within the next 12 months [8].

Economic Outlook - Thailand's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to a range of 1.5% to 2% due to political instability and uncertainty affecting domestic economic drivers, particularly exports and government budget spending [1] - The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2025 by 1.1%, now predicting a growth rate of only 1.8% due to global economic uncertainties leading to domestic economic weakness [1] - The Thai Commercial Bank's Economic Information Center has also reduced its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.4%, attributing the decline to trade tensions, changes in US policy, domestic economic vulnerabilities, and limited fiscal space [1] Trade and Exports - Despite a 14.9% increase in exports in the first five months of the year, this growth is primarily attributed to a surge in imports before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension by the US [2] - If the US imposes a 10% tariff, Thailand's economic growth rate may stabilize around 2%, but an increase to 18% could reduce the growth rate to approximately 1.5% [2] - The Thai Chamber of Commerce predicts that exports may shrink by over 10% in the second half of the year, potentially leading to near-zero growth for the entire year of 2025, which would directly impact manufacturing and employment [2] Political Stability and Investment - The ongoing political uncertainty, particularly with the suspension of Prime Minister Petongtarn, raises concerns about the stability of the current ruling coalition and the potential for government collapse before the next budget is passed [1] - Foreign investors have been net sellers of Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total sell-off of $3.9 billion, reflecting concerns over the political outlook [2] - The performance of the Thai economy in the second half of the year will depend on several variables, including US Federal Reserve monetary policy, a rebound in tourism, and the speed of domestic budget spending [3]