工业硅产业供需失衡
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建信期货工业硅日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 02:15
Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Report on: Industrial silicon market - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Si2511 closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. Trading volume was 371,805 lots, and open interest was 277,305 lots, a net decrease of 2,437 lots [4] - Sichuan 553 price was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 price was 8,550 yuan/ton. Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9,400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 price was 9,150 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 price was 9,600 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - This week, spot prices remained stable. The supply side increased significantly, with weekly output reaching 90,000 tons, equivalent to about 390,000 tons per month. On the demand side, polysilicon production in September decreased from 145,000 tons to 120,000 - 130,000 tons. The total demand from organic silicon, alloys, and exports remained stable. The industry is facing a supply - demand imbalance again without inventory reduction drivers [4] - Policy implementation has not focused on the industrial silicon industry. With insufficient fundamental drivers, the futures market will fluctuate widely [4] Group 3: Market News - On September 4, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,072 lots, a net decrease of 276 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data, in July 2025, China exported 74,000 tons of metallic silicon, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China exported a total of 414,700 tons of metallic silicon, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6 GW, and the new installed capacity was 223.25 GW. In July, the single - month new installed capacity was 11 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5]