国金证券近日发布基础化工行业研究：2025年10月9日，国家发改委、市场监管总局发 布《关于治理价格无序竞争维护良好市场价格秩序的公告》，对价格无序竞争问题突出的重 点行业，行业协会等有关机构在国家发展改革委、市场监管总局和行业主管部门指导下，可 以调研评估行业平均成本，为经营者合理定价提供参考。 风险提示 延续"反内卷"要求，持续关注无序低价竞争，提供持续的政策环境。继今年6-7月，国家 重点开启反内卷要求，陆续出台政策指引典型行业开启供给侧管控，7月份包括水泥、钢 铁、煤炭、养殖等行业纷纷开始进行合理的产能控制，防止无序扩张和竞争，其后，国家持 续针对反内卷的关键要求不断落实政策要求，比如"统一大市场"，细分行业的供给管控，到 这一次的"治理价格无序竞争"，这一次的公告延续了此前的6月出台的《中华人民共和国反 不正当竞争法（修订草案）》和7月中央财经委员会第六次会议"依法依规治理企业低价无序 竞争"的要求，是前轮政策的延续深化。从大方向看，针对反内卷的核心要求，国家持续出 台政策、公告、文件等不断强化，在宏观上提供了供给侧管控的延续环境，有利于强化市场 信心，便于后续细分行业的政策加速出台和落地。 供给端 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [3]. Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are trading around interest rate cuts, with silver showing potential for a short squeeze due to low inventory levels and continued inflows into ETFs [1][33]. - Industrial metals like copper are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine and a reduction in global copper supply, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate as the market awaits demand recovery [1][33]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing active trading ahead of the holiday, with expectations of strong supply growth in the fourth quarter [1][33]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to trade based on interest rate expectations, with silver's strong performance linked to low inventory levels and ETF inflows [1][33]. - The U.S. core PCE price index for August recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.9%, aligning with expectations and reducing concerns about interest rate cuts [1][33]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine, with a projected reduction of over 500,000 tons in global copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months [1][33]. - Aluminum supply is increasing as production capacity is restored, but prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [1][33]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are stable, with active trading as companies prepare for the holiday season, and supply expectations remain strong for the fourth quarter [1][33]. - The report notes a slight increase in lithium carbonate production, with inventory levels decreasing [1][33]. Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights several companies to monitor, including 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, 万国黄金集团, 中金黄金, 紫金矿业, 山东黄金, 赤峰黄金, 银泰黄金, 招金矿业, 洛阳钼业, 明泰铝业, and others [1][3].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 21 年 月 日 有色金属 美联储降息落地，持续看好有色金属板块 贵金属：预防式降息落地，继续看好金银后市走势。根据国盛证券宏观团队《美联储重启降 息，怎么看、怎么办？》，北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 9 月议息会议决议。美 联储如期降息 25bp，点阵图显示年内共降息 3 次，声明提及"委员会判断就业的下行风险 已上升"、"通胀有所回升"，鲍威尔称这是"风险缓释型"降息，整体基调偏中性。历史上 看，美联储在经济不衰退的情况下降息，将带动美股和黄金上涨。会议过后，金银回调后在 周五重新上涨，我们继续看好流动性宽松预期下金银价格表现。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛达 资源、万国黄金集团、中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：流动性宽松与需求旺季对铜价形成支撑。①宏观方面：周内美联储降 息靴子落地，铜价在获利了结背景下回吐部分涨幅；②库存端：周内全球铜库存环比增加 0.83 万吨，其中中国库存增加 0.82 万吨，LME 铜库存减少 0.53 万吨，COMEX 铜库存增加 0.54 万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy direction emphasizes the construction of a unified national market, which is crucial for enhancing China's response to risks and challenges, especially in the context of being the world's second-largest consumer market [1]. Group 1: Policy Direction and Industry Focus - The policy aims to address the issue of overcapacity in various domestic industries, with a specific focus on the chemical sector, which has seen significant fixed asset investment and capacity pressure over the past four years [2]. - The article reiterates the importance of "five unifications and one openness," highlighting the need to rectify issues such as low-price disorderly competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity [3]. Group 2: Industry Collaboration and Profitability - Certain industries have begun to initiate "industry collaboration," which may improve profitability before stringent supply-side constraints are implemented, with initial attempts at controlling production and pricing already underway [4]. - The focus on specific segments such as glyphosate, organosilicon, sweeteners, polyester filament bottle chips, and metallic silicon is recommended due to their relatively better market concentration and demand sustainability [4]. Group 3: Long-term Monitoring and Supply-side Policies - Continuous tracking of supply-side policy changes and their implementation is essential to assess long-term price trends and profit realization, particularly regarding orderly supply and reasonable competition [5]. - Key areas for monitoring include the impact of new capacity, traditional supply-side clearance policies, and the external environment affecting exports [5].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is an industrial silicon daily report dated September 12, 2025, issued by the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [2] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different sectors such as crude oil, PTA/MEG, industrial silicon/polysilicon, etc [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 closed at 8740 yuan/ton, up 2.46%. The trading volume was 347,619 lots, and the open interest was 287,771 lots, with a net increase of 9,706 lots [4] - Spot prices vary by region: Sichuan 553 is 8800 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 is 8550 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 is 9400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 is 9300 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 is 9600 yuan/ton [4] - The monthly output in September will exceed 400,000 tons, nearly 80,000 tons more than in June. The demand increase is mainly from the polysilicon sector, with an expected output of 125,000 tons in September, nearly 30,000 tons more than in June. The total monthly demand is 360,000 tons. The imbalance between supply and demand persists, and the market lacks inventory reduction drivers. The spot price remains stable, and the futures price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [4] Group 4: Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price showed a fluctuating trend. The Si2511 contract had specific closing price, trading volume, open interest and its change data [4] - **Spot Prices**: Different regions have different spot prices for different grades of industrial silicon [4] - **Future Outlook**: Forecasts on production, demand, and price trends, indicating continued supply - demand imbalance and price stability with wide - range fluctuations [4] 2. Market News - On September 11, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the GZEX was 50,093 lots, a net increase of 48 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In July 2025, China's metal silicon exports were 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, the total exports were 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1109.6GW, and the newly added installed capacity was 223.25GW. The newly added installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, the lowest in 2025 [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The policy-driven for industrial silicon is limited. After the rebound of spot prices, the profit of production devices turns positive, leading to continuous resumption and increase in production. The monthly output in September will exceed 400,000 tons, nearly 80,000 tons more than that in June. The demand increment is still mainly contributed by the polysilicon sector, with an expected output of 125,000 tons in September, nearly 30,000 tons more than that in June. The organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and export parts are expected to remain stable, with a total monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The pressure of supply-demand imbalance has not been effectively alleviated, and there is no inventory reduction drive in the market. The spot price remains stable, and the futures price rebounds with reduced positions around 8,200, with the low-level range being tested four times and showing strong support. Overall, it continues to fluctuate widely [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The closing price of Si2511 is 8,665 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.58%. The trading volume is 622,948 lots, and the open interest is 278,065 lots, a net decrease of 7,975 lots [4]. - Spot price: The price of Sichuan 553 is 8,800 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan 553 is 8,550 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia 421 is 9,400 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 is 9,150 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market News - On September 10, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,045 lots, a net increase of 90 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, the export volume of metallic silicon was 74,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.32% and a year-on-year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total export volume of metallic silicon was 414,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - Data shows that from January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in gold and silver prices due to lower-than-expected non-farm payroll data, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][34] - The outlook for gold and silver prices remains strong, with expectations of rising inflation and declining employment in the U.S. economy [1][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming economic data releases, particularly the CPI data on September 11 and the FOMC meeting on September 17 [1] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, while silver prices hit a yearly high due to increased interest rate cut expectations following disappointing U.S. employment data [1][34] - The U.S. non-farm payroll for August was reported at 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.3% [1][34] - The market's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut rose to 86% after the employment data release [1][34] - Key companies to watch include: Xinyi Silver Tin, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand in September and October [2] - Global copper inventories increased by 43,800 tons, with notable increases in China and LME [2] - Chile's copper exports for August were reported at 176,430 tons, with significant exports to China [2] - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to domestic and international policies, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.085 million tons in China [2] - Companies to focus on include: Luoyang Molybdenum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao [2] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are experiencing a downward trend, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 73,000 yuan/ton, down 6.3% [3] - Lithium production increased by 2% to 19,400 tons, with a utilization rate of 48% [3] - The demand for electric vehicles is expected to rise, with August sales of 1.1 million electric vehicles [3] - Companies to monitor include: Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Xizang Mining [3] Key Companies - The report lists several companies with investment ratings, including: - Shanjin International (Buy) [7] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) [7] - Luoyang Molybdenum (Buy) [7] - China Hongqiao (Buy) [7] - Zhongtung High-tech (Buy) [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Report on: Industrial silicon market - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Si2511 closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. Trading volume was 371,805 lots, and open interest was 277,305 lots, a net decrease of 2,437 lots [4] - Sichuan 553 price was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 price was 8,550 yuan/ton. Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9,400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 price was 9,150 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 price was 9,600 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - This week, spot prices remained stable. The supply side increased significantly, with weekly output reaching 90,000 tons, equivalent to about 390,000 tons per month. On the demand side, polysilicon production in September decreased from 145,000 tons to 120,000 - 130,000 tons. The total demand from organic silicon, alloys, and exports remained stable. The industry is facing a supply - demand imbalance again without inventory reduction drivers [4] - Policy implementation has not focused on the industrial silicon industry. With insufficient fundamental drivers, the futures market will fluctuate widely [4] Group 3: Market News - On September 4, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,072 lots, a net decrease of 276 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data, in July 2025, China exported 74,000 tons of metallic silicon, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China exported a total of 414,700 tons of metallic silicon, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6 GW, and the new installed capacity was 223.25 GW. In July, the single - month new installed capacity was 11 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5]

Group 1: Market Performance and Outlook - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%. The trading volume was 275,841 lots, and the open interest was 279,742 lots, with a net decrease of 1,738 lots [4]. - Sichuan 553 price was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 price was 8,550 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9,400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 price was 9,150 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 price was 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. - After the high - price adjustment, the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals did not improve significantly. The supply - side increase was obvious, with the weekly output reaching 90,000 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of about 390,000 tons. On the demand side, polysilicon production reduction and sales control in September led to a decrease in monthly output from 145,000 tons to 120,000 - 130,000 tons. The total volume of organic silicon, alloy, and exports remained stable. The industry was in a supply - demand imbalance again without inventory - reduction drivers. Policy implementation did not focus on the industrial silicon industry, and the fundamentals had insufficient driving force, so the futures market fluctuated widely [4]. Group 2: Market News - On September 4th, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,348 lots, a net increase of 319 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, the export of metallic silicon was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total export of metallic silicon was 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6 GW, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. The single - month new installed capacity in July was 11 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly silver, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations and a weakening dollar, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][34]. - For industrial metals, the report is optimistic about copper prices due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing price declines amid weaker market sentiment, although demand remains stable due to seasonal factors [1][24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged, with COMEX silver reaching $40.75 per ounce, marking a significant technical breakout [1][34]. - Gold prices are also approaching $3,500 per ounce, with expectations of inflation rising in the U.S. economy [1][34]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The report anticipates a price increase due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, with global refined copper production expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [1][4]. - Aluminum: The report notes a slight increase in theoretical operating capacity in China's aluminum industry, but anticipates price fluctuations due to mixed production adjustments [1][4]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices have declined, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping to 80,000 yuan per ton, while production and inventory levels are also decreasing [1][24]. - Metal Silicon: The report indicates stable supply and demand dynamics, with short-term price fluctuations expected [1][24]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, including: - Shandong Gold (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.75 yuan for 2027 [3]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.01 yuan for 2027 [3]. - China Hongqiao Group (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.83 yuan for 2027 [3].