Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the industrial silicon futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. The upper price is suppressed by the slow inventory consumption, while the lower price is supported by the decline in production and cost. The main contract SI2605 is likely to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On March 2, 2026, the opening price of the main contract SI2605 of industrial silicon futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 8,410 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 8,440 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 8,225 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 8,325 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 202,748 lots, the open interest was 334,292 lots, an increase of 5,876 lots, but the variety's open interest decreased by 2,701 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - On March 2, 2026, the leading price of China's industrial silicon spot was 9,090 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract SI2605 was 8,325 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium of 765 yuan/ton to the futures, and the basis was within a reasonable range [2]. 3.3 Main Influencing Factors - The pattern of weak supply and demand persists. The supply - side operating rate remains at a low level, with only a small number of furnaces resuming production. The demand - side is in the seasonal resumption stage, but the overall recovery speed is slow [2]. - Cost support is obvious. The cost of industrial silicon is in the range of about 8,300 - 8,800 yuan/ton, which provides certain support for the futures price. The production cost in Xinjiang, a low - cost production area, has an important impact on the futures market price [2]. - Inventory pressure still exists. According to SMM data, the social inventory of industrial silicon after the Spring Festival is 560,000 tons, a slight increase of 3,000 tons compared with before the festival. The slow inventory digestion suppresses the price [2]. - The expectation of production resumption affects market sentiment. There are rumors that 15 furnaces of industrial silicon will resume production in March, and large factories in Xinjiang also have production resumption plans, which has a certain impact on market sentiment [3]. 3.4 Short - term Outlook - Key factors to focus on include the actual resumption of large factories, especially the resumption progress in Xinjiang; the recovery of downstream demand, including the changes in the operating rates of major downstream industries such as organic silicon and polysilicon; the inventory change trend; and the cost - side changes, including the price fluctuations of raw and auxiliary materials such as silica and silicon coal and the adjustment of electricity price policies [4].